1639 Toledo Rd · Elkhart, IN 46516

$160,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,868 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1868 0.45 ac lot Est $269k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits with this spacious home situated on a generous 0.45-acre lot in Elkhart! It offers great potential for buyers looking to add their personal touch and build equity. Features include a detached 2-car garage, a newer AC unit that's only 3 years old, and plenty of outdoor space for entertaining, gardening, or future improvements. With solid bones, a large yard, and endless possibilities, this property is ready for its next owner to make it their own. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Newer ac unit
• 0.45-acre lot
• Outdoor space

Tags

• 0.45-ACRE LOT
• DETACHED 2-CAR GARAGE
• NEWER AC UNIT
• OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family site-built home; 2 stories
• Construction: Vinyl siding with asphalt elements; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 78 x 270; 0.45-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Bedrooms: Total of 4 rooms (bedrooms included)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air
• Interior features: Gas range; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($424/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.0% in Elkhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#224 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Concord Community Schools (suburban): math 24% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #226 of 301 in IN (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Concord East Side Elementary Sch (math 45% / reading 39%, grade F, #434 of 994 statewide, top 48%, 555 students, 53% FRL); Concord Junior High School (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #186 of 330 statewide, top 57%, 841 students, 58% FRL); Concord Community High School (math 25% / reading 64%, grade F, #169 of 369 statewide, top 51%, 1,785 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 484 units permitted in Elkhart County in 2024 (136 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Elkhart County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1868 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $147,448 (7.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1868 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.95%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,992
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1112 Goshen Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,809 (-3%)	10mo	$215,000	$119	69
56297 Silvercrest Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5	1,824 (-2%)	15mo	$284,900	$156	66
24731 County Road 16	0.12mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,740 (-7%)	13mo	$250,000	$144	65
24307 County Road 16	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,813 (-3%)	12mo	$265,000	$146	55
633 James St	0.54mi	4/1.5	1,605 (-14%)	13mo	$189,000	$118	39
1112 North St	0.66mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,642 (-12%)	14mo	$159,900	$97	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-23,639
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-17,536
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46516

• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,474 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,430

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $160,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   remarks 498-char remark
7. 2026-06-14
   listed $160,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,685 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,685 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,694
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,416
• − Management: −$1,416
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,239
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$537
• After-tax cash flow: $962/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Concord Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 1802400
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,133
• Composite: 27.02/100
• National rank: #7057
• State rank: #226 of 301 in IN

Livability — Elkhart

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #9852

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Elkhart County · 107,928 people
• City population: 74,260
• Metro: Elkhart-Goshen, IN
• Population (ZIP): 31,871
• Household income: $56,492
• Rent vs Own: 37.3% rent · 62.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 995.0

Population outlook (Elkhart County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 213,761 people
• By 2030: 218,103 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 225,381 · +5.4%
• By 2050: 229,447 · +7.3%
• By 2075: 232,856 · +8.9%
• By 2100: 214,088 · +0.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Elkhart

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.4) · D 33.1% · R 65.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.2pp · 2024: -32.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.4 2020: R+28.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.5 2008: R+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -233.42%
• Current HPI: 239.2508
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Elkhart-Goshen, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $160,000 IRMLS

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,685 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.