13709 Sabine Lake Dr · Texas City, TX 77568

$283,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,717 sqft · Land · 225 Days on market

Built 2025 6,242 sqft lot $165/sqft · 6% below area Est $301k · 6% under $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Make your plans to come out to Lago Mar to see this gorgeous home from Adams Homes. This home is 1717sqft. with 3bd/ 2ba & is estimated to be completed in Nov. This home is bricked on all 4 sides with a covered patio. Inside you get laminate flooring throughout the living area, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops & so much more. Don't let this one get away, make your appointment to tour this one ASAP!

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Covered patio
• Granite countertops

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $284k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $19 ($225/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Dunbar Middle (math 25% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 654 students, 78% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 661 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 225 days — a 12% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $245,135 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 225 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.28%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,009
• List price: $283,900
• Delta: -5.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-42,434
• Equity at exit: $42,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-25,477
• Equity at exit: $24,546

Cash invested: $79,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 661
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,451 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,489
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,229/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,428

Max offer price $283,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $179	-5% $99	+0% $19	+5% $-62	+10% $-142
Rent	-10% $-175	-5% $-78	+0% $19	+5% $116	+10% $212
Rate	-1.0pp $162	-0.5pp $91	base $19	+0.5pp $-55	+1.0pp $-130

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,975
• Closing costs: $8,517
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$2,445	$1.08	0d	1	0.71mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	13d	1	1.02mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	23d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $283,900 Pending 225 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $283,900 Active 224 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $283,900 Active 223 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $283,900 Active 222 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $283,900 Active 219 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $283,900 Active 218 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $283,900 Active 217 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $283,900 Active 216 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $283,900 Active 215 DOM
10. 2026-05-11
    price $283,900 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    Make your plans to come out to Lago Mar to see this gorgeous home from Adams Homes. This home is 1717sqft. with 3bd/ 2ba & is estimated to be completed in Nov. This home is bricked on all 4 sides with a covered patio. Inside you get laminate flooring throughout the living area, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops & so much more. Don't let this one get away, make your appointment to tour this one ASAP!

11. 2026-03-05
    price $278,900 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    Make your plans to come out to Lago Mar to see this gorgeous home from Adams Homes. This home is 1717sqft. with 3bd/ 2ba & is estimated to be completed in Nov. This home is bricked on all 4 sides with a covered patio. Inside you get laminate flooring throughout the living area, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops & so much more. Don't let this one get away, make your appointment to tour this one ASAP!

12. 2025-10-28
    listed $303,900 Active 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    Make your plans to come out to Lago Mar to see this gorgeous home from Adams Homes. This home is 1717sqft. with 3bd/ 2ba & is estimated to be completed in Nov. This home is bricked on all 4 sides with a covered patio. Inside you get laminate flooring throughout the living area, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops & so much more. Don't let this one get away, make your appointment to tour this one ASAP!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,229 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,195 · $433/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,967/yr (+$247/mo · 133.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,416
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,903
• − Property taxes: −$2,229
• − Insurance: −$1,420
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,353
• − Management: −$2,353
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$8,259
• Taxable loss: −$4,600
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,104
• After-tax cash flow: $1,329/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $283,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $278,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $303,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,229 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.