15 Alys Dr E · Depew, NY 14043

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,324 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1956 9,583 sqft lot Est $271k · 48% under $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a solid structure with great bones, making it an excellent opportunity for buyers looking for a well-maintained property with minimal cosmetic updates. The home is in overall great condition, featuring a functional layout and sturdy construction. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer or seeking a low-maintenance property to make your own, this home provides a perfect blend of comfort and lasting value. Don't miss this opportunity!!

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1956

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $120 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.7% in Depew — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#408 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lancaster Central School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #234 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $140,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.66%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $271,420
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30 Bonita Dr	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,184 (-11%)	1mo	$242,000	$204	77
50 Harvard Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,260 (-5%)	7mo	$230,000	$183	69
128 University Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,309 (-1%)	7mo	$260,000	$199	65
41 Beverly Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-14%)	8mo	$275,000	$241	61
36 Pamela Dr	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,168 (-12%)	3mo	$220,000	$188	61
39 Asbury Pl	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-5%)	8mo	$260,000	$206	59
19 Darwin Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,292 (-2%)	9mo	$265,000	$205	53
883 Sherwood Ct	0.65mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,304 (-2%)	5mo	$252,000	$193	52
74 Grant St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,239 (-6%)	1mo	$270,000	$218	52
77 King Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-13%)	2mo	$285,000	$247	51
136 Marrano Dr	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,426 (+8%)	8mo	$365,000	$256	45
37 Rossiter Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+14%)	5mo	$275,000	$182	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-9,738
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $24,407
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14043

• Home prices YoY: -34.2%
• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,794 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$487 /mo · $5,845/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$18
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,642

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6386 Transit Rd Depew, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1023	$2,397	$2.34	1d	62	1.02mi
136 Sawyer Ave Unit 2 Depew, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	43d	1	1.31mi
Cowing St Lancaster, NY	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,400	$0.97	43d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $18 · $216/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-01-07
   soldstatus $130,000
2. 2024-12-03
   status Pending
3. 2024-11-20
   listed $140,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,845 · $487/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,845 · $487/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$5,845
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,722
• − Management: −$1,722
• − HOA: −$216
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$593
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$142
• After-tax cash flow: $1,578/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616680
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,668
• Composite: 51.64/100
• National rank: #1700
• State rank: #234 of 590 in NY

Livability — Depew

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #408
• US rank: #7016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Depew, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 25,098
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 25,098
• Household income: $74,112
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 854.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 30% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Arabic 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.13%
• Current HPI: 292.1082
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2024-12-03 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2024-11-20 Listed $140,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,845 · +36.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.