2233 E Behrend Dr #45 · Phoenix, AZ 85024

$94,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 343 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ · no rentals Built 1985 Good condition $85/sqft · 12% below area Est $108k · 12% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.3

Listing remarks MLS

Oversized 70'x16' (1,120 sf) single-wide with great views of the boulders! Desirable split 2 bed, 2 bath floor plan with new roof (2024), exterior paint (Sept 2025). Features vaulted ceilings, double-pane windows, ceiling fans, and a spacious kitchen with granite counters, breakfast bar, island, hallway pantry, and heavy-duty metal pull-out drawers. Stainless steel appliances, two refrigerators, washer, and dryer included. Great room layout ideal for entertaining. Oversized covered patio with double-door entry & extra-long carport for up to four cars. Community offers 2 pools, pickleball, tennis, clubhouse, and more. No rentals allowed. Park requires minimum credit score of 750, 3x the lot rent in verifiable monthly income, & pass a background check. 55+ Community.

Key facts

• 4 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $634 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sunset Canyon School (math 16% / reading 25%, grade F, #729 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 366 students, 54% FRL); Mountain Trail Middle School (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #57 of 218 statewide, top 27%, 680 students, 24% FRL); North Canyon High School (math 13% / reading 23%, grade F, #242 of 381 statewide, top 64%, 1,842 students, 55% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 352 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 50d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 343 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 343 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.63%
• DSCR: 2.27
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $107,500
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: -11.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2233 E Behrend Dr #15	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,144 (+2%)	4mo	$150,000	$131	93
2233 E Behrend Dr #219	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+3%)	5mo	$90,000	$78	87
2233 E Behrend Dr #81	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-7%)	6mo	$52,000	$50	83
2233 E Behrend Dr #92	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-6%)	10mo	$20,000	$19	82
2233 E Behrend Dr #93	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-6%)	11mo	$47,000	$45	77
2233 E Behrend Dr #152	0.00mi	2/2.0	980 (-12%)	8mo	$42,500	$43	73
2233 E Behrend Dr #78	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+11%)	5mo	$69,900	$56	72
2233 E Behrend Dr #29	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+11%)	7mo	$131,000	$105	69
2535 E Oraibi Dr	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,162 (+4%)	4mo	$285,000	$245	65
2544 E Piute Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,066 (-5%)	3mo	$265,000	$249	58
19809 N 26th St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+3%)	11mo	$125,000	$109	53
2526 E Behrend Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+11%)	1mo	$329,900	$264	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $22,506
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $61,662
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 36 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.5 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $97,000 ($89/sqft)
• Median days on market: 69 d
• This list price: 44% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85024

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 352
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,633 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,424/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $634

Break-even live

Break-even rent $830

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $700	-5% $667	+0% $634	+5% $601	+10% $568
Rent	-10% $505	-5% $570	+0% $634	+5% $699	+10% $763
Rate	-1.0pp $682	-0.5pp $658	base $634	+0.5pp $609	+1.0pp $584

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2030 E Wahalla Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,035	$1.45	123d	1	0.25mi
2335 E Utopia Rd Unit 4 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1426	$2,160	$1.51	10d	1	0.26mi
2335 E Utopia Rd Unit 6 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1355	$2,100	$1.55	115d	1	0.26mi
2335 E Utopia Rd Unit 7 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1355	$2,100	$1.55	50d	1	0.26mi
2336 E Utopia Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1356	$2,495	$1.84	2d	2	0.27mi
2335 E Utopia Rd Unit 16 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1426	$2,550	$1.79	159d	1	0.28mi
20007 N 20th Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1251	$3,700	$2.96	38d	1	0.28mi
20007 N 20th Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1251	$3,900	$3.12	184d	1	0.28mi
20050 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	984	$1,742	$1.77	6d	10	0.37mi
2505 E Piute Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,995	$1.60	34d	1	0.43mi
2505 E Piute Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,895	$1.52	10d	1	0.43mi
2505 E Piute Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,895	$1.52	17d	1	0.43mi
19635 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1130	$1,688	$1.49	0d	12	0.43mi
2220 E Beardsley Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	688	$1,583	$2.30	0d	16	0.46mi
2500 E Marco Polo Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	918	$2,415	$2.63	1d	14	0.48mi
2500 E Marco Polo Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	918	$2,455	$2.67	69d	12	0.48mi
2525 E Siesta Ln Unit 207 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	109d	1	0.58mi
18660 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	864	$1,645	$1.90	0d	2	0.58mi
2311 E Union Hills Dr Unit 2-1 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	910	$1,380	$1.52	22d	1	0.69mi
2311 E Union Hills Dr Unit 2-2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	970	$1,295	$1.34	22d	1	0.69mi
2311 E Union Hills Dr Unit 1 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$1,317	$1.88	22d	1	0.69mi
2311 E Union Hills Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	680	$1,420	$2.09	0d	2	0.70mi
2221 E Union Hills Dr #158 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1332	$2,100	$1.58	159d	1	0.71mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$3,000	$3.81	145d	9	0.77mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	797	$2,400	$3.01	2d	7	0.77mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	772	$2,400	$3.11	12d	7	0.77mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$3,000	$3.81	139d	7	0.77mi
1717 E Union Hills Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1169	$1,999	$1.71	118d	2	0.80mi
1717 E Union Hills Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1169	$1,675	$1.43	144d	3	0.80mi
1717 E Union Hills Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1245	$1,775	$1.43	162d	4	0.80mi
2534 E Villa Theresa Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1099	$1,845	$1.68	83d	1	0.80mi
18426 N 19th St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1054	$2,149	$2.04	23d	1	0.81mi
18250 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1440	$1,700	$1.18	113d	1	0.81mi
18250 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1440	$1,972	$1.37	10d	2	0.81mi
18250 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1440	$1,725	$1.20	118d	1	0.81mi
18250 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1440	$2,200	$1.53	85d	2	0.81mi
18250 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1440	$2,800	$1.94	75d	1	0.81mi
1510 E Taro Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,149	$1.89	165d	1	0.82mi
1510 E Taro Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,260	$1.99	125d	1	0.82mi
1717 E Union Hills Dr #1052 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1160	$4,500	$3.88	10d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $94,900 Active 343 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $94,900 Active 342 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $94,900 Active 341 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $94,900 Active 340 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $94,900 Active 339 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $94,900 Active 337 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $94,900 Active 336 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $94,900 Active 335 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $94,900 Active 334 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $94,900 Active 333 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $94,900 Active 332 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $94,900 Active 331 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $94,900 Active 330 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $94,900 Active 329 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $94,900 Active 328 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $94,900 Active 327 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $94,900 Active 326 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $94,900 Active 325 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $94,900 Active 324 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    price $94,900 Active 323 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $99,900 Active 323 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $99,900 Active 322 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $99,900 Active 321 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $99,900 Active 320 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $99,900 Active 319 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $99,900 Active 318 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $99,900 Active 317 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $99,900 Active 316 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $99,900 Active 315 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $99,900 Active 314 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $99,900 Active 313 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $99,900 Active 312 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 311 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $99,900 Active 310 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 309 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $99,900 Active 308 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $99,900 Active 307 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 306 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 305 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $99,900 Active 304 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $99,900 Active 303 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $99,900 Active 302 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $99,900 Active 301 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $99,900 Active 300 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $99,900 Active 299 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $99,900 Active 298 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $99,900 Active 297 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $99,900 Active 296 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $99,900 Active 295 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $99,900 Active 294 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$1,424
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,567
• − Management: −$1,567
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $6,484
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,556
• After-tax cash flow: $6,053/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,600–$16,800 screening

This manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates and a desirable split floor plan. It's move-in ready with a good curb appeal and potential for further value through landscaping and exterior painting.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans — Ceiling fans can improve air circulation and comfort ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 25/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Sunset Canyon School F AZ #729/1,109 Nat'l #33,158/41,679 Middle Mountain Trail Middle School F AZ #57/218 Nat'l #6,830/14,009 High North Canyon High School F AZ #242/381 Nat'l #14,759/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 26,199
• Household income: $106,724
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 12% Asian 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.95%
• Current HPI: 312.7238
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-20.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $94,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $100,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $115,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $120,000 ARMLS