1954 Villa Dr · Newton, NC 28658

$269,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 234 Days on market

Built 1973 0.47 ac lot Est $224k · 21% over ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming One-Owner Split Level with Pool and Unique Backyard Oasis Pride of ownership shows throughout this one-owner split-level home! Though the interior reflects its original era, it has been immaculately maintained and is ready for its next chapter. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a versatile layout and sits in an ideal location close to local conveniences and community amenities. Step inside to find spacious living areas filled with natural light and endless potential for modern updates. The entry-level one-car garage can easily double as an enclosed outdoor space, perfect for entertaining or relaxing year-round. Outside, discover a truly unique backyard designed for enjoyment an

Key facts

• Bath house
• Storage building
• Backyard oasis

Tags

• BACKYARD OASIS
• BATH HOUSE
• STORAGE BUILDING
• MATURE LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Has garage (1 garage space); Main level garage available
• Utilities: City water; Septic system installed; Publicly maintained paved concrete road access
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Split-level home; Basement foundation
• Construction: Site-built construction; Brick (partial), vinyl, and wood exterior materials
• Exterior features: Deck; Screened porch; Side porch; Full backyard fencing; Outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms located on the upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Heat pump
• Interior features: 2 total rooms; Wood-burning fireplace; Basement with garage door, shop area, interior entry, storage space, walk-out and walk-up access
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $296 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.9% in Newton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#77 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Catawba County Schools (rural): math 54% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #54 of 178 in NC (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Startown Elementary (math 63% / reading 50%, grade C+, #280 of 1,410 statewide, top 20%, 529 students, 54% FRL); Maiden High (math 57% / reading 66%, grade B-, #199 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 870 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,016 units permitted in Catawba County in 2024 (255 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Catawba County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.71%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,944
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1781 W Nc 10 Hwy	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,026 (-1%)	4mo	$100,000	$97	69
2263 Starbrooke Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+7%)	11mo	$240,000	$217	49
2104 Dove St	0.54mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,125 (+9%)	7mo	$247,500	$220	43
1900 Sigmon Dairy Rd	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,164 (+13%)	16mo	$250,000	$215	42
2141 Dove St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	920 (-11%)	22mo	$211,000	$229	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-24,981
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $2,044
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28658

• Home prices YoY: -23.3%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $860/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,025

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2230 Evergreen Dr Newton, NC	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,400	$1.61	20d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 234 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 233 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 232 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 231 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 229 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 228 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 225 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 224 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,900 Active 223 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $269,900 Active 220 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,900 Active 219 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,900 Active 218 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 217 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 216 DOM
15. 2026-03-20
    price $269,900
16. 2026-02-26
    price $274,499
17. 2025-10-27
    listed $274,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $860 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,213 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,353/yr (+$113/mo · 157.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$860
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$988
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$237
• After-tax cash flow: $3,795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Catawba County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700690
• Math proficiency: 54% ▲ 9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,180
• Composite: 44.71/100
• National rank: #2754
• State rank: #54 of 178 in NC

Livability — Newton

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #77
• US rank: #5536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newton, NC
• Population (ZIP): 25,681

Population outlook (Catawba County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 156,513 people
• By 2030: 155,267 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 151,110 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 145,524 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 134,047 · -14.4%
• By 2100: 119,424 · -23.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 8% Two or more races 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Catawba

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 30.6% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+37.0 2016: R+38.0 2012: R+29.6 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.85%
• Current HPI: 262.8541
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $269,900 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $274,499 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Listed $274,999 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $860 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.