1405 North 12th St · Paducah, KY 42001

$15,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 961 sqft · SingleFamily · 66 Days on market

6,534 sqft lot $16/sqft · 74% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

With some imagination and some work this home is ready to be restored. Could be a great investment opportunity. Be sure to check out the listing next door at 1407 N 12th which can be sold in conjunction.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Listed 65 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $741 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $14k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 65.6% vs local median 4.5% in Paducah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#197 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D.
• Paducah Independent (town): math 22% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #122 of 165 in KY (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 248 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 187 units permitted in McCracken County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McCracken County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($14k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $14,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 65.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 211.73%
• DSCR: 10.42
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $57,688
• List price: $15,000
• Delta: -74.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1205 N 12th St	0.19mi	2/1.0	988 (+3%)	1mo	$30,000	$30	85
1407 North 12th St	0.01mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,014 (+6%)	1mo	$92,500	$91	85
751 N 22nd St	0.55mi	2/1.0	980 (+2%)	6mo	$28,000	$29	67
841 N 22nd St	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	988 (+3%)	7mo	$54,000	$55	63
1900 Harrison St	0.68mi	1/1.0 (-1)	984 (+2%)	1mo	$130,000	$132	58
706 N 23rd St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,006 (+5%)	3mo	$28,000	$28	55
1917 Madison St	0.73mi	2/1.0	1,025 (+7%)	6mo	$154,500	$151	50
906 N 26th St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-10%)	0mo	$78,000	$90	48
915 N 25th St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-10%)	4mo	$105,000	$122	47
725 N 24th St	0.63mi	2/1.0	1,082 (+13%)	3mo	$120,000	$111	47
1920 Harrison St	0.72mi	2/1.0	1,100 (+14%)	3mo	$19,900	$18	40
1418 Madison St	0.67mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,083 (+13%)	2mo	$122,350	$113	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.66×
• Total profit: $44,776
• Equity at exit: $2,237

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.76×
• Total profit: $99,802
• Equity at exit: $1,297

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42001

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,055 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax from tax record: −$8 /mo · $92/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $741

Break-even live

Break-even rent $117

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 25%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1900 Jefferson St Paducah, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,400	$1.75	44d	1	0.92mi
2741 Trimble St Unit 27195 Paducah, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$725	$0.85	44d	1	1.10mi
2991 Clay St Unit 06 Paducah, KY	2.0	1.0	974	$715	$0.73	44d	1	1.38mi
2967 Harrison St Paducah, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$915	$1.26	44d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $15,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $15,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $15,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $15,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $15,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $15,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $15,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $15,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $15,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $15,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $15,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $15,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $15,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $15,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $15,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-04-14
    listed $15,000 Active 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    With some imagination and some work this home is ready to be restored. Could be a great investment opportunity. Be sure to check out the listing next door at 1407 N 12th which can be sold in conjunction.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $92 · $8/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $129 · $11/mo
• Expected delta: +$37/yr (+$3/mo · 40.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$92
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,013
• − Management: −$1,013
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $9,193
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,206
• After-tax cash flow: $6,686/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paducah Independent
• NCES district ID: 2104650
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $30,067
• Composite: 23.41/100
• National rank: #7896
• State rank: #122 of 165 in KY

Livability — Paducah

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #197
• US rank: #9780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paducah, KY
• County: McCracken County · 30,856 people
• City population: 30,856
• Metro: Paducah, KY-IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,856
• Household income: $71,365
• Rent vs Own: 36.5% rent · 63.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1001.0

Population outlook (McCracken County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,237 people
• By 2030: 63,468 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 61,221 · -4.7%
• By 2050: 58,432 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 52,668 · -18.0%
• By 2100: 44,517 · -30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McCracken

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.9) · D 31.9% · R 66.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.2pp · 2024: -34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.9 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+37.2 2012: R+32.5 2008: R+25.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.23%
• Current HPI: 258.1706
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Paducah, KY-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $15,000 WKRMLS

Property tax history

-15.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $92 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.