9917 Three Lakes Cir · Watergate, FL 33428

$290,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 967 sqft · Condo public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1984

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT GROUND FLOOR UNIT WITHY VERY PRIVATE VIEWS. SPACIOUS 3 BEDROOMS, 2 BATHROOMS, AND A SCREENED PATIO. THIS UNIT OFFERS A NEW LARGE CAPACITY WASHER AND DRYER, HOT WATER HEATER REPLACED IN 2008, NEW CARPET, REMODELED MASTER BATHROOM, A/C UNITS ARE APPROX 4 YEARS NEW. ROSEWOOD IS A SMALL COMPLEX OF 80 UNITS WITH A COMMUNITY POOL. LEASE RIGHT AWAY WITH NO WAIT PERIOD. 1 PET PERMITTED NOT TO EXCEED 20LBS AT FULL MATURITY. ABSOLUTE BEST BUY!

Key facts

• First floor unit
• Built 1984
• Listed 22 days

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR UNIT
• WASHER AND DRYER INSIDE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-682/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#585 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 267 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $290k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,394 (11.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.97%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-48,640
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-38,821
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33428

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,574 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$326 /mo · $3,916/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,646

Max offer price $279,966

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $107	-5% $25	+0% $-57	+5% $-139	+10% $-221
Rent	-10% $-260	-5% $-158	+0% $-57	+5% $45	+10% $147
Rate	-1.0pp $89	-0.5pp $17	base $-57	+0.5pp $-132	+1.0pp $-208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9921 Three Lakes Cir Unit 9921 Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	967	$2,700	$2.79	25d	1	0.02mi
9973 Three Lakes Cir Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1026	$2,500	$2.44	25d	1	0.08mi
9993 Three Lakes Cir Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	972	$2,600	$2.67	14d	1	0.10mi
22605 SW 66th Ave #403 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$2,100	$2.04	25d	1	0.12mi
9915 Sandalfoot Blvd Boca Raton, FL	2.0	1.0	777	$2,000	$2.57	11d	2	0.16mi
9949 Sandalfoot Blvd Boca Raton, FL	2.0	1.5–2.0	818	$2,000	$2.44	13d	2	0.16mi
9949 Sandalfoot Blvd #531 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	820	$2,200	$2.68	25d	1	0.17mi
10166 Marlin Cir Unit 2 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	1.0	789	$1,450	$1.84	16d	1	0.30mi
10267 Boca Bnd W Unit G4 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1068	$2,850	$2.67	25d	1	0.39mi
9860 SW 3rd St Boca Raton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1222	$3,397	$2.78	0d	34	0.43mi
10323 Boca Bnd W Unit K4 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1068	$2,500	$2.34	0d	1	0.45mi
10457 S 228th Ln Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,900	$1.72	8d	1	0.50mi
1620 SW 64th Way Unit H Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$2,250	$2.23	25d	1	0.51mi
9355 SW 8th St Boca Raton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	780	$1,975	$2.53	1d	4	0.54mi
9780 Marina Blvd #415 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$2,000	$2.09	25d	1	0.59mi
9273 SW 8th St Boca Raton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	878	$2,200	$2.51	3d	3	0.63mi
9233 SW 8th St #110 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	979	$1,800	$1.84	8d	1	0.70mi
9370 SW 8th St #107 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$2,150	$2.39	15d	1	0.70mi
9370 SW 8th St #107 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	6d	1	0.70mi
9374 SW 3rd St #708 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$2,100	$2.19	8d	1	0.71mi
9826 Marina Blvd #1027 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$2,500	$2.62	25d	1	0.72mi
22974 Seaspray Pl Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,200	$2.04	13d	1	0.73mi
9338 SW 3rd St #508 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$2,300	$2.39	14d	1	0.75mi
9338 SW 3rd St #508 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$2,300	$2.39	13d	1	0.75mi
10669 Boca Entrada Blvd Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1083	$3,450	$3.19	25d	1	0.75mi
9260 Boca Vue Dr Boca Raton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1052	$4,265	$4.05	0d	32	0.78mi
9440 SW 8th St Boca Raton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	878	$1,950	$2.22	3d	2	0.79mi
9235 SW 8th St Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1045	$2,175	$2.08	11d	4	0.79mi
9235 SW 8th St Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$2,150	$2.39	3d	2	0.79mi
9162 SW 5th St Unit A Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1039	$2,400	$2.31	25d	1	0.80mi
9210 SW 3rd St #216 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$2,350	$2.45	25d	1	0.80mi
9200 SW 3rd St #109 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$2,250	$2.34	25d	1	0.82mi
9503 Boca Cove Cir #603 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$2,200	$2.41	22d	1	0.83mi
9466 Boca Cove Cir #310 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	770	$2,000	$2.60	25d	1	0.85mi
11887 Anchorage Way Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,900	$1.98	25d	1	0.99mi
11942 N Branch Rd Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,950	$2.17	25d	1	1.01mi
11992 Coral Pl Boca Raton, FL	2.0	1.5	720	$2,000	$2.78	25d	1	1.09mi
5800 NW 74th Pl Coconut Creek, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1115	$2,407	$2.16	2d	17	1.12mi
23398 SW 57th Ave Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	988	$2,150	$2.18	5d	2	1.17mi
23398 Lyons Rd #309 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	988	$2,200	$2.23	14d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $290,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $290,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $290,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-05-26
    listed $290,000 Active
13. 2015-11-06
    soldstatus $110,000
14. 2014-03-19
    soldstatus $95,500
15. 2014-03-18
    soldstatus $95,500 Closed 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    GREAT GROUND FLOOR UNIT WITHY VERY PRIVATE VIEWS. SPACIOUS 3 BEDROOMS, 2 BATHROOMS, AND A SCREENED PATIO. THIS UNIT OFFERS A NEW LARGE CAPACITY WASHER AND DRYER, HOT WATER HEATER REPLACED IN 2008, NEW CARPET, REMODELED MASTER BATHROOM, A/C UNITS ARE APPROX 4 YEARS NEW. ROSEWOOD IS A SMALL COMPLEX OF 80 UNITS WITH A COMMUNITY POOL. LEASE RIGHT AWAY WITH NO WAIT PERIOD. 1 PET PERMITTED NOT TO EXCEED 20LBS AT FULL MATURITY. ABSOLUTE BEST BUY!

16. 2014-03-04
    status Pending 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    GREAT GROUND FLOOR UNIT WITHY VERY PRIVATE VIEWS. SPACIOUS 3 BEDROOMS, 2 BATHROOMS, AND A SCREENED PATIO. THIS UNIT OFFERS A NEW LARGE CAPACITY WASHER AND DRYER, HOT WATER HEATER REPLACED IN 2008, NEW CARPET, REMODELED MASTER BATHROOM, A/C UNITS ARE APPROX 4 YEARS NEW. ROSEWOOD IS A SMALL COMPLEX OF 80 UNITS WITH A COMMUNITY POOL. LEASE RIGHT AWAY WITH NO WAIT PERIOD. 1 PET PERMITTED NOT TO EXCEED 20LBS AT FULL MATURITY. ABSOLUTE BEST BUY!

17. 2014-02-21
    historical Contingent 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    GREAT GROUND FLOOR UNIT WITHY VERY PRIVATE VIEWS. SPACIOUS 3 BEDROOMS, 2 BATHROOMS, AND A SCREENED PATIO. THIS UNIT OFFERS A NEW LARGE CAPACITY WASHER AND DRYER, HOT WATER HEATER REPLACED IN 2008, NEW CARPET, REMODELED MASTER BATHROOM, A/C UNITS ARE APPROX 4 YEARS NEW. ROSEWOOD IS A SMALL COMPLEX OF 80 UNITS WITH A COMMUNITY POOL. LEASE RIGHT AWAY WITH NO WAIT PERIOD. 1 PET PERMITTED NOT TO EXCEED 20LBS AT FULL MATURITY. ABSOLUTE BEST BUY!

18. 2014-02-12
    status Active 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    GREAT GROUND FLOOR UNIT WITHY VERY PRIVATE VIEWS. SPACIOUS 3 BEDROOMS, 2 BATHROOMS, AND A SCREENED PATIO. THIS UNIT OFFERS A NEW LARGE CAPACITY WASHER AND DRYER, HOT WATER HEATER REPLACED IN 2008, NEW CARPET, REMODELED MASTER BATHROOM, A/C UNITS ARE APPROX 4 YEARS NEW. ROSEWOOD IS A SMALL COMPLEX OF 80 UNITS WITH A COMMUNITY POOL. LEASE RIGHT AWAY WITH NO WAIT PERIOD. 1 PET PERMITTED NOT TO EXCEED 20LBS AT FULL MATURITY. ABSOLUTE BEST BUY!

19. 2014-02-04
    historical Contingent 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    GREAT GROUND FLOOR UNIT WITHY VERY PRIVATE VIEWS. SPACIOUS 3 BEDROOMS, 2 BATHROOMS, AND A SCREENED PATIO. THIS UNIT OFFERS A NEW LARGE CAPACITY WASHER AND DRYER, HOT WATER HEATER REPLACED IN 2008, NEW CARPET, REMODELED MASTER BATHROOM, A/C UNITS ARE APPROX 4 YEARS NEW. ROSEWOOD IS A SMALL COMPLEX OF 80 UNITS WITH A COMMUNITY POOL. LEASE RIGHT AWAY WITH NO WAIT PERIOD. 1 PET PERMITTED NOT TO EXCEED 20LBS AT FULL MATURITY. ABSOLUTE BEST BUY!

20. 2014-01-29
    listed $99,000 Active 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    GREAT GROUND FLOOR UNIT WITHY VERY PRIVATE VIEWS. SPACIOUS 3 BEDROOMS, 2 BATHROOMS, AND A SCREENED PATIO. THIS UNIT OFFERS A NEW LARGE CAPACITY WASHER AND DRYER, HOT WATER HEATER REPLACED IN 2008, NEW CARPET, REMODELED MASTER BATHROOM, A/C UNITS ARE APPROX 4 YEARS NEW. ROSEWOOD IS A SMALL COMPLEX OF 80 UNITS WITH A COMMUNITY POOL. LEASE RIGHT AWAY WITH NO WAIT PERIOD. 1 PET PERMITTED NOT TO EXCEED 20LBS AT FULL MATURITY. ABSOLUTE BEST BUY!

21. 1994-08-30
    soldstatus $53,000
22. 1994-06-07
    soldstatus $52,000
23. 1994-03-28
    soldstatus $49,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,916 · $326/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,916 · $326/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,887
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$3,916
• − Insurance: −$2,918
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,471
• − Management: −$2,471
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$5,569
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,336
• After-tax cash flow: $655/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Watergate

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #585
• US rank: #11201

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,588
• Household income: $88,543
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1990.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Two or more races 23% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 12% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 37% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -299.00%
• Current HPI: 373.2649
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.72%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+485.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $290,000 FSBO.com
• 2015-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2014-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $95,500 Public Records
• 2014-03-18 Sold (MLS) $95,500 Beaches MLS
• 2014-03-04 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2014-02-21 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2014-02-12 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2014-02-04 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2014-01-29 Listed $99,000 Beaches MLS
• 1994-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 1994-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 1994-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,916 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.