707 Fletcher St · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$229,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1955 7,110 sqft lot $218/sqft · 19% below area Est $282k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great ranch in the City of Tonawanda. Fully fenced yard with a 2 car garage. Hardwood floors throughout and newer recessed lighting. Kitchen updated with a new island and built in wine cooler. Furnace and A/C new 2018. Are you looking for a turn key home, here it is. Seller will review offers at 4:00pm on 2/15.

Key facts

• Updated kitchen
• Electric fireplace
• Fully fenced yard

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NEWER RECESSED LIGHTING
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• BACKUP WATER SUMP PUMP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with electricity and garage door opener; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected with circuit breakers; Public water connected; Sewer connected; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Vinyl siding; Blown-in insulation; Copper and PEX plumbing; Poured foundation; Full basement with partial finish and walk-out access
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Concrete driveway; Fully fenced yard; Rectangular residential lot with approximately 60 x 119 dimensions; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Kitchen sized to include an island and eat-in space
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Tile flooring; Varied flooring types through the home
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Bedroom on main level; Main-level primary bedroom; Moisture control (improved indoor air quality)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in the basement; Gas water heater; Sump pump in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (17.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $169,308 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.22%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,352
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -18.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-44,835
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-28,103
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,693 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$267 /mo · $3,202/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,979

Max offer price $189,144

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
115 Klinger Ave Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	3d	1	0.71mi
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	12d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 716-char remark
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $229,000 Active 716-char remark
3. 2021-05-07
   soldstatus $175,000 Closed Sale or Rented 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   Great ranch in the City of Tonawanda. Fully fenced yard with a 2 car garage. Hardwood floors throughout and newer recessed lighting. Kitchen updated with a new island and built in wine cooler. Furnace and A/C new 2018. Are you looking for a turn key home, here it is. Seller will review offers at 4:00pm on 2/15.

4. 2021-05-06
   soldstatus $175,000
5. 2021-03-03
   status Pending Sale 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   Great ranch in the City of Tonawanda. Fully fenced yard with a 2 car garage. Hardwood floors throughout and newer recessed lighting. Kitchen updated with a new island and built in wine cooler. Furnace and A/C new 2018. Are you looking for a turn key home, here it is. Seller will review offers at 4:00pm on 2/15.

6. 2021-02-17
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   Great ranch in the City of Tonawanda. Fully fenced yard with a 2 car garage. Hardwood floors throughout and newer recessed lighting. Kitchen updated with a new island and built in wine cooler. Furnace and A/C new 2018. Are you looking for a turn key home, here it is. Seller will review offers at 4:00pm on 2/15.

7. 2021-02-05
   listed $155,000 Active 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   Great ranch in the City of Tonawanda. Fully fenced yard with a 2 car garage. Hardwood floors throughout and newer recessed lighting. Kitchen updated with a new island and built in wine cooler. Furnace and A/C new 2018. Are you looking for a turn key home, here it is. Seller will review offers at 4:00pm on 2/15.

8. 2017-06-23
   soldstatus $132,000 Closed Sale or Rented
9. 2017-06-23
   soldstatus $132,000
10. 2017-05-05
    status Pending Sale
11. 2017-05-03
    historical Under Contract- Do Not Show
12. 2017-05-01
    status Active
13. 2017-04-27
    historical Under Contract- Do Not Show
14. 2017-04-19
    listed $129,900 Active
15. 2016-12-03
    historical
16. 2016-11-17
    listed $129,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,536 · $295/mo
• Expected delta: +$334/yr (+$28/mo · 10.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,202
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,625
• − Management: −$1,625
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$6,770
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,625
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+76.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $229,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-05-07 Sold (MLS) $175,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-03 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-02-17 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-02-05 Listed $155,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-23 Sold (MLS) $132,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-05-05 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2017-05-03 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2017-05-01 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2017-04-27 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2017-04-19 Listed $129,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-12-03 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2016-11-17 Listed $129,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,202 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.