13537 W Maplewood Dr · Big Lake, AK 99652

$200,000

2 bd · None ba · 884 sqft · Other public records · 230 Days on market

Built 1975 1.84 ac lot $226/sqft · 25% below area Est $267k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cabin is a shell that has lots of potential. Seller has installed new metal roof and gutted the interior down to logs and studs, no floor coverings. Great for rehab loan or as a recreational getaway as is. Electric and a well and septic are on property but not connected to cabin. Buyer to verify all aspects. Garage is wired and needs a little work too.

Key facts

• Well and septic
• Metal roof
• Wired garage

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• GUTTED INTERIOR
• WELL AND SEPTIC
• WIRED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/?-bath other listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.3% in Big Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#99 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools D-.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $170,000 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.08%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,120
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -25.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $30,204
• Equity at exit: $89,929

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $98,829
• Equity at exit: $138,591

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99652

• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,368/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,577

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $210	-5% $153	+0% $97	+5% $40	+10% $-16
Rent	-10% $-37	-5% $30	+0% $97	+5% $164	+10% $231
Rate	-1.0pp $198	-0.5pp $148	base $97	+0.5pp $45	+1.0pp $-8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1987 S Lodge Dr Unit 1 Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	24d	1	0.74mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 230 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 229 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 228 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 227 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 225 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 224 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 222 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 221 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 220 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 219 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 215 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 214 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 213 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 212 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 211 DOM
16. 2025-10-31
    listed $200,000 Active 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    This cabin is a shell that has lots of potential. Seller has installed new metal roof and gutted the interior down to logs and studs, no floor coverings. Great for rehab loan or as a recreational getaway as is. Electric and a well and septic are on property but not connected to cabin. Buyer to verify all aspects. Garage is wired and needs a little work too.

17. 2020-09-28
    soldstatus
18. 2020-09-14
    historical
19. 2020-09-12
    listed $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,368 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,874 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$506/yr (+$42/mo · 37.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,368
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,253
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$541
• After-tax cash flow: $1,703/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Big Lake

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #20971

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Lake, AK
• City population: 4,066
• Population (ZIP): 4,066

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+207.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-31 Listed $200,000 AKMLS
• 2020-09-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-09-14 Delisted — AKMLS
• 2020-09-12 Listed $65,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,368 · -45.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.