4633 Larkspur St · Houston, TX 77051

$270,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,722 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 144 Days on market

Built 2023 5,048 sqft lot $157/sqft · 11% above area Est $243k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• ARV discount +2.6/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect for investors, short-term rentals, or first-time buyers! This charming 3-bedroom, open-concept gem, perfectly positioned for the 2026 Houston market. Situated just minutes from the Texas Medical Center and the vibrant pulse of Downtown No HOA and low Taxes. The seamless open layout flows beautifully from the spacious kitchen into a spacious living area. Two secondary bedrooms provide privacy with lots of natural light flowing through the home. An iron driveway gate provides essential urban security and peace of mind for both owners and tenants. Ideal for traveling professionals or families seeking a "home away from home". Don't miss out on this adorable gem! Contact us to schedule a showing and turn this dream home into reality. Furniture negotiable.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Natural light
• Low taxes

Tags

• IRON DRIVEWAY GATE
• NATURAL LIGHT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• NO HOA
• LOW TAXES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,202/mo this rent would consume 71% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,203 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.56%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,365
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: 10.94%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4626 Maggie St	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-9%)	7mo	$250,000	$160	77
4747 Clover St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,851 (+8%)	1mo	$247,500	$134	76
8746 Delilah St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,674 (-3%)	6mo	$235,000	$140	76
8815 Edgar St	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,620 (-6%)	5mo	$299,990	$185	70
8817 Edgar St	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,620 (-6%)	6mo	$299,990	$185	69
4357 Maggie St	0.30mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,781 (+3%)	3mo	$239,950	$135	68
8819 Edgar St	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,620 (-6%)	7mo	$299,990	$185	68
4726 Angleton St	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,652 (-4%)	8mo	$220,000	$133	68
4358 Larkspur St	0.29mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,501 (-13%)	2mo	$242,500	$162	56
4338 Larkspur St	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,958 (+14%)	4mo	$230,000	$117	56
5003 Higgins St Unit A	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,892 (+10%)	8mo	$222,000	$117	42
4418 Rosemont St	0.69mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,961 (+14%)	1mo	$250,000	$127	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $132,857
• Equity at exit: $243,237

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.48×
• Total profit: $414,607
• Equity at exit: $524,551

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,202 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$498 /mo · $5,981/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,566

Max offer price $219,203

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-135	-5% $-211	+0% $-288	+5% $-364	+10% $-440
Rent	-10% $-461	-5% $-375	+0% $-288	+5% $-201	+10% $-114
Rate	-1.0pp $-152	-0.5pp $-219	base $-288	+0.5pp $-358	+1.0pp $-429

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4538 Clover St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$1,595	$0.90	44d	1	0.16mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	6d	1	0.22mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	15d	1	0.24mi
4514 Galesburg St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$3,500	$2.08	25d	1	0.30mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	44d	1	0.53mi
4406 Sterling St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$1,999	$1.09	17d	1	0.54mi
4835 Sunflower St Unit 1546466P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1883	$4,516	$2.40	15d	1	0.58mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	44d	1	0.61mi
5036 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,050	$1.39	44d	1	0.62mi
4601 White Rock St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,500	$1.47	44d	1	0.65mi
8107 Calhoun Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1304	$2,250	$1.73	25d	1	0.67mi
4921a Pederson St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,150	$1.22	13d	1	0.73mi
4613 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,300	$1.44	44d	1	0.74mi
4609 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$3,500	$2.69	13d	1	0.75mi
4609 Bricker St Unit ABC Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1375	$3,500	$2.55	12d	1	0.75mi
4609 Bricker St Unit C Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$3,200	$2.91	13d	1	0.75mi
5012 Higgins St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1611	$1,650	$1.02	25d	1	0.77mi
4117 Shelby Cir Unit 1230900P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1367	$5,253	$3.84	0d	1	0.80mi
5407 Thrush Dr Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1407	$1,495	$1.06	14d	1	0.87mi
3710 Rockingham St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1890	$1,700	$0.90	44d	1	0.90mi
5222 Northridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,850	$1.42	25d	1	0.93mi
7710 Darnay Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1635	$2,095	$1.28	44d	1	0.99mi
4530 Mayflower St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,800	$1.38	44d	1	1.00mi
8328 Corinth St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	20d	1	1.06mi
3620 Du Bois St Unit 1302349P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1797	$2,945	$1.64	3d	1	1.09mi
5623 Bellfort St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1320	$1,700	$1.29	15d	1	1.11mi
9606 Ashville Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,570	$0.98	44d	1	1.14mi
5314 Longmeadow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1646	$1,900	$1.15	44d	1	1.21mi
9509 Merle St Unit 9509A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1404	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	1.23mi
5408 Groveton St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1472	$1,983	$1.35	0d	1	1.25mi
7358 Guadalcanal Rd Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1768	$2,195	$1.24	44d	1	1.26mi
8010 Livingston St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	44d	1	1.29mi
7806 Comal St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,200	$1.22	44d	1	1.37mi
5767 Belcrest St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1480	$1,790	$1.21	44d	1	1.41mi
7321 Conley St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1869	$2,025	$1.08	21d	1	1.47mi
7321 Conley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,025	$1.35	21d	1	1.47mi
2889 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,648	$1.65	3d	2	1.50mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $270,000 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $270,000 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $270,000 Active 132 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $270,000 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $270,000 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-01-23
    listed $270,000 Active 779-char remark

    Show marketing remark (779 chars)

    Perfect for investors, short-term rentals, or first-time buyers! This charming 3-bedroom, open-concept gem, perfectly positioned for the 2026 Houston market. Situated just minutes from the Texas Medical Center and the vibrant pulse of Downtown No HOA and low Taxes. The seamless open layout flows beautifully from the spacious kitchen into a spacious living area. Two secondary bedrooms provide privacy with lots of natural light flowing through the home. An iron driveway gate provides essential urban security and peace of mind for both owners and tenants. Ideal for traveling professionals or families seeking a "home away from home". Don't miss out on this adorable gem! Contact us to schedule a showing and turn this dream home into reality. Furniture negotiable.

11. 2025-09-03
    historical
12. 2025-08-06
    price $280,000
13. 2025-06-26
    price $285,000
14. 2025-06-04
    listed $295,000 Active
15. 2025-05-06
    historical
16. 2025-03-21
    price $290,000
17. 2025-01-20
    listed $305,000 Active
18. 2024-07-18
    historical
19. 2024-04-12
    listed $324,900 Active
20. 2024-04-10
    historical
21. 2024-02-23
    listed $329,999 Active
22. 2024-02-23
    historical
23. 2023-11-16
    listed $335,000 Active
24. 2023-06-27
    soldstatus
25. 2023-06-26
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2023-06-03
    status Pending
27. 2023-05-28
    status Option Pending
28. 2023-05-28
    status Pending
29. 2023-05-09
    price $285,999
30. 2023-05-09
    listed $289,999 Active
31. 2022-03-16
    soldstatus Sold
32. 2022-03-04
    status Pending
33. 2022-01-19
    listed $79,900 Active
34. 2020-03-10
    soldstatus
35. 2018-01-05
    soldstatus
36. 1990-07-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,981 · $498/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,981 · $498/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,419
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$5,981
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,114
• − Management: −$2,114
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$8,117
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,948
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,502/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+237.9% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Listed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-04 Listed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-20 Listed $305,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-04-12 Listed $324,900 HARMLS
• 2024-04-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-23 Listed $329,999 HARMLS
• 2023-11-16 Listed $335,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-06-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-06-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-05-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-05-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-05-09 Price Changed $285,999 HARMLS
• 2023-05-09 Listed $289,999 HARMLS
• 2022-03-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-03-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-01-19 Listed $79,900 HARMLS
• 2020-03-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-01-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-07-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,981 · -5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.