180 Caravaggio Cir · Sacramento, CA 95835

$510,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,449 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2007 3,136 sqft lot $352/sqft · 17% above area Est $534k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks

You won't want to miss this well maintained 4 bed/2.5 bath two-story house in North Natomas. Home has an open floor plan with kitchen and family room great room concept. Kitchen is spacious with an island, plenty of cabinet storage and an adjoining dining room with a sliding glass door that opens to the low maintenance backyard. Family room has a cozy gas fireplace beside built in shelves, a large under stairs storage closet and a guest bath leading to the attached two car garage. Upstairs features double doors to the large primary bedroom with an ensuite bath including a large bathtub and separate shower and three additional guest bedrooms for a growing family, work from home office or wo

Key facts

• Cozy gas fireplace
• Open floor plan
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LOW MAINTENANCE BACKYARD
• COZY GAS FIREPLACE
• BUILT IN SHELVES
• LARGE UNDER STAIRS STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $510k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (40.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (43.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (43.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Twin Rivers Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #970 of 1,400 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 402 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $50k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $47k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$81k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($502k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $290k; list at $510k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,187 (43.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.86%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $533,983
• List price: $510,000
• Delta: -4.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
441 Caravaggio Cir	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,459 (+1%)	1mo	$539,900	$370	93
5467 Elderdown Way	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,364 (-6%)	2mo	$455,000	$334	68
470 Pelican Bay Cir	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,454 (+0%)	2mo	$470,000	$323	67
5418 Shennecock Way	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,364 (-6%)	1mo	$456,000	$334	67
2796 San Marin Ln	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+6%)	2mo	$485,000	$316	66
5359 Knotty Pine Way	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,519 (+5%)	7mo	$515,000	$339	64
5412 Waterville	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,364 (-6%)	7mo	$450,000	$330	63
2685 San Marin Ln	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,399 (-4%)	6mo	$472,000	$337	57
250 Pelican Bay Cir	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,538 (+6%)	6mo	$520,000	$338	56
16 Ellerton Pl	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+6%)	2mo	$489,000	$318	53
431 Pelican Bay Cir	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,538 (+6%)	7mo	$460,000	$299	51
24 Grantley Pl	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,538 (+6%)	2mo	$490,000	$319	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.18% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $169,897
• Equity at exit: $429,428

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $544,717
• Equity at exit: $895,890

Cash invested: $142,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95835

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 402
• Price-to-rent: 14.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,902 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,674
• Tax from tax record: −$460 /mo · $5,521/yr
• Insurance: −$212
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $-1,180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,395

Max offer price $301,585

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $127,500
• Closing costs: $15,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30 Sheen Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1652	$2,850	$1.73	44d	1	0.05mi
3044 Enchanted Walk Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1351	$2,300	$1.70	2d	1	0.12mi
11 Long Warf Pl Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1708	$2,795	$1.64	2d	1	0.30mi
3396 Shaker Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1815	$3,250	$1.79	12d	1	0.35mi
5301 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1334	$2,662	$2.00	24d	2	0.50mi
5301 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1334	$2,648	$1.98	16d	3	0.50mi
5301 E Commerce Way #58104 Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1315	$2,900	$2.21	2d	1	0.52mi
3301 N Park Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1678	$2,672	$1.59	44d	2	0.95mi
5350 Dunlay Dr #911 Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,750	$1.81	2d	1	0.98mi
5350 Dunlay Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1585	$2,750	$1.74	18d	3	0.98mi
5350 Dunlay Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1585	$2,750	$1.74	22d	2	0.98mi
260 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1697	$2,650	$1.56	8d	1	1.02mi
3712 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$4,000	$2.41	3d	1	1.03mi
3766 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$2,675	$1.61	44d	1	1.08mi
570 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1697	$3,000	$1.77	44d	1	1.14mi
5050 Trouville Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1583	$2,950	$1.86	44d	1	1.31mi
4800 Kokomo Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1229	$3,819	$3.11	2d	26	1.33mi
2001 Club Center Dr #3110 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.5	1154	$2,195	$1.90	4d	1	1.34mi
1947 Acari Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,695	$1.81	2d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2015-09-30
   soldstatus $290,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,521 · $460/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,521 · $460/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A99 · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,822
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,568
• − Property taxes: −$5,521
• − Insurance: −$4,052
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,786
• − Management: −$2,786
• − Depreciation: −$14,836
• Taxable loss: −$23,727
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,694
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Twin Rivers Unified
• NCES district ID: 0601332
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,481
• Composite: 30.67/100
• National rank: #11437
• State rank: #970 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,004
• Household income: $114,468
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1234.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 30% White 29% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.18%
• Current HPI: 271.4823
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2015-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,521 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.