427 Moonlight Drive Dr · Bluewater, AZ 85344

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · Manufactured · 91 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition $173/sqft · 35% above area ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 427 Moonlight Drive-Rare Zero Lease lot, remodeled gem that's light, bright, and move-in ready! This super clean 2-bedroom, 1-bath furnished home shows true pride of ownership and features new drywall and insulated throughout. brand-new flooring, along with updated kitchen and bathroom finishes that create a fresh, modern feel throughout. One of the standout features is the gigantic 36-foot-deep garage- parking for 4 cars inside 2 car parking on the side of the garage and up to 3 under the awnings -perfect for storing your toys, boat, or extra gear with room to spare. Outside, you'll love the Trex deck porches, shade cloth awnings, and a huge backyard with RV parking, offering plenty of space to relax or entertain. Located in a community packed with amenities, you'll enjoy water access, a dog park, clubhouse, and community pool--making it easy to embrace the lifestyle you've been looking for. Plus, the zero lease is an added bonus! If you're searching for a bright, beautifully maintained home with space for all your toys, this is the one. Come check it out today!

Key facts

• Trex deck porches
• Huge backyard
• Brand new flooring

Tags

• BRAND NEW FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN FINISHES
• UPDATED BATHROOM FINISHES
• GIGANTIC GARAGE
• TREX DECK PORCHES
• HUGE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $350 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#81 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Parker Unified School District (4510) (town): math 18% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #200 of 249 in AZ (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in La Paz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• La Paz County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $159,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.58%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $92,566
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: 89.05%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
427 Bluewater Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,012 (0%)	2mo	$163,000	$161	93
425 Bluewater Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,018 (+1%)	7mo	$267,000	$262	83
423 Paradise Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,050 (+4%)	13mo	$105,000	$100	80
314 N Moonlight Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-5%)	7mo	$50,000	$52	68
324 N Misty Lane Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+14%)	11mo	$105,000	$91	60
476 E Riverfront Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (+11%)	9mo	$150,000	$134	59
236 N Moonlight Dr	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+14%)	1mo	$134,000	$116	56
408 N Misty Ln	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (+11%)	15mo	$120,000	$107	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-6,019
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $23,605
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85344

• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,974 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $350

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on marketlisting id $175,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $175,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $175,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $175,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-03-13
    listed $224,900 Active 1092-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1091 chars)

    Welcome to 427 Moonlight Drive-Rare Zero Lease lot, remodeled gem that's light, bright, and move-in ready! This super clean 2-bedroom, 1-bath furnished home shows true pride of ownership and features new drywall and insulated throughout. brand-new flooring, along with updated kitchen and bathroom finishes that create a fresh, modern feel throughout. One of the standout features is the gigantic 36-foot-deep garage- parking for 4 cars inside 2 car parking on the side of the garage and up to 3 under the awnings -perfect for storing your toys, boat, or extra gear with room to spare. Outside, you'll love the Trex deck porches, shade cloth awnings, and a huge backyard with RV parking, offering plenty of space to relax or entertain. Located in a community packed with amenities, you'll enjoy water access, a dog park, clubhouse, and community pool--making it easy to embrace the lifestyle you've been looking for. Plus, the zero lease is an added bonus! If you're searching for a bright, beautifully maintained home with space for all your toys, this is the one. Come check it out today!

14. 2026-03-13
    listed $224,900 Active 1091-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1091 chars)

    Welcome to 427 Moonlight Drive-Rare Zero Lease lot, remodeled gem that's light, bright, and move-in ready! This super clean 2-bedroom, 1-bath furnished home shows true pride of ownership and features new drywall and insulated throughout. brand-new flooring, along with updated kitchen and bathroom finishes that create a fresh, modern feel throughout. One of the standout features is the gigantic 36-foot-deep garage- parking for 4 cars inside 2 car parking on the side of the garage and up to 3 under the awnings -perfect for storing your toys, boat, or extra gear with room to spare. Outside, you'll love the Trex deck porches, shade cloth awnings, and a huge backyard with RV parking, offering plenty of space to relax or entertain. Located in a community packed with amenities, you'll enjoy water access, a dog park, clubhouse, and community pool--making it easy to embrace the lifestyle you've been looking for. Plus, the zero lease is an added bonus! If you're searching for a bright, beautifully maintained home with space for all your toys, this is the one. Come check it out today!

15. 2025-06-25
    listed $250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,895
• − Management: −$1,895
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $1,507
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$362
• After-tax cash flow: $3,842/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home features updated finishes, a large garage, and a fenced yard, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value
• Both Replace window treatments — New window treatments can improve aesthetics and energy efficiency
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — New window treatments can improve aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parker Unified School District (4510)
• NCES district ID: 0405980
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $34,354
• Composite: 14.76/100
• National rank: #9392
• State rank: #200 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Bluewater

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #12872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bluewater, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,069

Population outlook (La Paz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,409 people
• By 2030: 17,592 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 16,600 · -9.8%
• By 2050: 16,328 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 17,075 · -7.2%
• By 2100: 17,042 · -7.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 34% Native American 23% Two or more races 19% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · La Paz

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.2) · D 27.6% · R 71.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -28.5pp · 2024: -44.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.2 2020: R+38.8 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+32.2 2008: R+28.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.38%
• Current HPI: 198.2271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $224,900 WARDEX
• 2026-03-13 Listed $224,900 LHAR
• 2025-06-25 Listed $250,000 LHAR