3411 S Camino Seco -- #70 · Tucson, AZ 85730

$77,777

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 269 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1979 Good condition $51/sqft · 43% below area Est $138k · 43% under $669/mo HOA · 49% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.7

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained home in gorgeous adult resort park. Amenities include 2 sparkling pools, spa, fitness center, community garden, 24-hour attendant at entrance gate, pickle ball, bocce ball, clubhouse, craft room, and so much more. The beautiful property and the kind, fun friends & neighbors! There is always something to do if you want it and also plenty of space to just do your own thing! This beautiful, upgraded home on a great lot includes an 8 x 21, enclosed porch with windows and screens, new indoor/outdoor carpeting installed. Patio sliding glass door off the great room leads to the porch. This 2-bedroom 2 bath offers new laminate flooring in the kitchen, bathroom and laundry room. New carpet in the bedrooms and in the living room. New paint throughout. All appliances and washer/dryer convey. Recessed lighting in the kitchen and bathrooms. Ceiling fans in one bedroom and one in kitchen/family room. The kitchen has a pass through to the formal dining room which makes a convenient way to serve food or a coffee bar. The living room has vaulted, beamed ceiling and lots of natural light. The front door off the living room leads to a small deck with new outdoor carpeting. This space will give you a a beautiful view of the Rincon Mountains. Home comes with A/C approximately 4 years old. A newer water heater. The exterior of the home has been freshly painted. All new irrigation for the plants.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Pickle ball
• Clubhouse

Tags

• SPARKLING POOLS
• FITNESS CENTER
• COMMUNITY GARDEN
• PICKLE BALL
• BOCCE BALL
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $59k (24.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ford Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #687 of 1,109 statewide, top 65%, 201 students, 72% FRL); Secrist Middle School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #194 of 218 statewide, top 90%, 304 students, 76% FRL); Santa Rita High School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #358 of 381 statewide, top 94%, 392 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 254 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $538 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 269 days — a 12% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 49% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,539 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 269 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.33%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,575
• List price: $77,777
• Delta: -43.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3781 S Peggy Ln	1.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+2%)	8mo	$274,000	$175	50
3768 S Andrew Johnson Ave	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-19%)	8mo	$212,500	$170	49
3750 S Cindy Ln	1.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+2%)	17mo	$235,000	$150	43
3761 S Peggy Ln	1.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-15%)	7mo	$209,000	$161	29
3710 S Cindy Ln	1.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-19%)	12mo	$245,000	$196	25
3701 S Peggy Ln	1.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-19%)	16mo	$259,000	$208	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-24,622
• Equity at exit: $11,597

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.11×
• Total profit: $-45,981
• Equity at exit: $6,725

Cash invested: $21,778 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 14 active
• Median asking: $71,500 ($47/sqft)
• Median days on market: 164 d
• This list price: 57% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +89.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85730

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,359 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$408
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$97 /mo · $1,167/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$669
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $-133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,527

Max offer price $58,539

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-79	-5% $-106	+0% $-133	+5% $-160	+10% $-187
Rent	-10% $-240	-5% $-187	+0% $-133	+5% $-79	+10% $-26
Rate	-1.0pp $-94	-0.5pp $-113	base $-133	+0.5pp $-153	+1.0pp $-174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,444
• Closing costs: $2,333
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3455 S Magda Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	93d	1	0.21mi
3292 S Kristina Park Loop Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,900	$1.15	35d	1	0.42mi
8467 E Shasta Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,720	$1.06	28d	1	0.57mi
8721 E Perry Park Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1579	$1,995	$1.26	33d	1	0.58mi
2650 S Brandywine Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1340	$1,500	$1.12	93d	1	0.62mi
9202 E 39th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1728	$1,650	$0.95	72d	1	0.65mi
8829 E Eagle Creek Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,830	$1.43	65d	1	0.70mi
2618 S Camino Seco Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.5	1442	$1,299	$0.90	72d	1	0.78mi
8905 E Pantano Bluff Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	2013	$1,950	$0.97	52d	1	0.78mi
2501 S Pantano Pkwy Unit 3 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,500	$1.30	20d	1	0.81mi
4289 S Goodall Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,950	$1.42	93d	1	0.82mi
9020 E Pantano Bluff Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1740	$1,999	$1.15	17d	1	0.87mi
8737 E Pebble Stone Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,095	$1.51	93d	1	0.88mi
8823 E Stone Meadow Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1383	$1,795	$1.30	20d	1	0.89mi
8749 E Pebble Stone Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,750	$1.20	35d	1	0.90mi
9172 E Corte Arroyo Oeste Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,900	$1.41	52d	1	0.92mi
2342 S Via de Dos Arroyos Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,795	$1.11	93d	1	0.92mi
4433 S Sunrise Bluff Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,895	$1.29	72d	1	0.93mi
8811 E Stone Meadow Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	2212	$1,999	$0.90	41d	1	0.94mi
8250 E Golf Links Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,584	$1.83	16d	27	0.94mi
8763 E Pebble Stone Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,895	$1.50	17d	1	0.96mi
9530 E 42nd St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,895	$1.48	41d	1	0.96mi
8315 E Golf Links Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1389	$1,945	$1.40	20d	2	0.97mi
8804 E Stone Meadow Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	2013	$2,200	$1.09	25d	1	0.97mi
2494 S Clovis Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,095	$1.36	93d	1	0.97mi
2461 S Clovis Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,095	$1.36	93d	1	0.98mi
8024 E Victoria Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1127	$1,500	$1.33	72d	1	1.00mi
9009 E Kinross Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,715	$1.32	70d	1	1.02mi
8755 E Stone Meadow Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,875	$1.28	41d	1	1.02mi
8164 E Cricket Song Trl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1704	$1,750	$1.03	93d	1	1.08mi
3110 S Portia Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1632	$1,575	$0.97	32d	1	1.09mi
3410 S Lakeside Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1271	$1,800	$1.42	72d	1	1.12mi
8061 E Senate St Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	1298	$1,700	$1.31	70d	1	1.13mi
2024 S Birdie Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,675	$1.13	52d	1	1.16mi
8925 E Citrus Tree Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,595	$1.37	28d	1	1.16mi
4775 S Wild Rose Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,645	$1.41	72d	1	1.17mi
4775 S Wild Rose Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,695	$1.45	39d	1	1.17mi
7996 E Senate St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,745	$1.09	20d	1	1.21mi
9055 E Alderpoint Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,695	$1.45	70d	1	1.21mi
9801 E Domenic Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,791	$1.25	61d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail $669/mo · $8,028/yr

• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $77,777 Active 269 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $77,777 Active 268 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $77,777 Active 267 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $77,777 Active 266 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $77,777 Active 263 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $77,777 Active 262 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $77,777 Active 261 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $77,777 Active 260 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $77,777 Active 259 DOM
10. 2025-11-13
    price $77,777 1440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1440 chars)

    Beautifully maintained home in gorgeous adult resort park. Amenities include 2 sparkling pools, spa, fitness center, community garden, 24-hour attendant at entrance gate, pickle ball, bocce ball, clubhouse, craft room, and so much more. The beautiful property and the kind, fun friends & neighbors! There is always something to do if you want it and also plenty of space to just do your own thing! This beautiful, upgraded home on a great lot includes an 8 x 21, enclosed porch with windows and screens, new indoor/outdoor carpeting installed. Patio sliding glass door off the great room leads to the porch. This 2-bedroom 2 bath offers new laminate flooring in the kitchen, bathroom and laundry room. New carpet in the bedrooms and in the living room. New paint throughout. All appliances and washer/dryer convey. Recessed lighting in the kitchen and bathrooms. Ceiling fans in one bedroom and one in kitchen/family room. The kitchen has a pass through to the formal dining room which makes a convenient way to serve food or a coffee bar. The living room has vaulted, beamed ceiling and lots of natural light. The front door off the living room leads to a small deck with new outdoor carpeting. This space will give you a a beautiful view of the Rincon Mountains. Home comes with A/C approximately 4 years old. A newer water heater. The exterior of the home has been freshly painted. All new irrigation for the plants. 55+

11. 2025-09-14
    listed $82,500 Active 1440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1440 chars)

    Beautifully maintained home in gorgeous adult resort park. Amenities include 2 sparkling pools, spa, fitness center, community garden, 24-hour attendant at entrance gate, pickle ball, bocce ball, clubhouse, craft room, and so much more. The beautiful property and the kind, fun friends & neighbors! There is always something to do if you want it and also plenty of space to just do your own thing! This beautiful, upgraded home on a great lot includes an 8 x 21, enclosed porch with windows and screens, new indoor/outdoor carpeting installed. Patio sliding glass door off the great room leads to the porch. This 2-bedroom 2 bath offers new laminate flooring in the kitchen, bathroom and laundry room. New carpet in the bedrooms and in the living room. New paint throughout. All appliances and washer/dryer convey. Recessed lighting in the kitchen and bathrooms. Ceiling fans in one bedroom and one in kitchen/family room. The kitchen has a pass through to the formal dining room which makes a convenient way to serve food or a coffee bar. The living room has vaulted, beamed ceiling and lots of natural light. The front door off the living room leads to a small deck with new outdoor carpeting. This space will give you a a beautiful view of the Rincon Mountains. Home comes with A/C approximately 4 years old. A newer water heater. The exterior of the home has been freshly painted. All new irrigation for the plants. 55+

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,307
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,357
• − Property taxes: −$1,167
• − Insurance: −$389
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,305
• − Management: −$1,305
• − HOA: −$8,028
• − Depreciation: −$2,263
• Taxable loss: −$2,505
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$601
• After-tax cash flow: $-994/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,680–$23,040 screening

This well-maintained mobile home in a resort park offers a good condition with recent updates and amenities. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the curb appeal and fresh interior.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both replace carpeting — newer carpeting improves comfort and value ↑
• Both install new window treatments — improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 13/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ford Elementary F AZ #687/1,109 Nat'l #32,000/41,679 Middle Secrist Middle School F AZ #194/218 Nat'l #13,419/14,009 High Santa Rita High School F AZ #358/381 Nat'l #16,644/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,066,056 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,399
• Household income: $62,090
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.41%
• Current HPI: 304.999
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.16%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $77,777 ARMLS
• 2025-09-14 Listed $82,500 ARMLS