5437 S Doyle Ter · Homosassa Springs, FL 34446

$134,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,472 sqft · Manufactured public records · 163 Days on market

Built 1981 0.50 ac lot Est $197k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS! 3BR/2BA Plus Den/Ofc 1,472 SF on Half Acre! Fireplace, Screened Deck, Utility Room with Washer/Dryer. NEW ROOF 2022! Pool/Swimspa is Located on Rear Deck. Home in Need of Repairs and TLC BUT is a Great Value for the Handy Person!

Key facts

• Screened deck
• Utility room
• New roof

Tags

• FIREPLACE
• SCREENED DECK
• UTILITY ROOM
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete driveway
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Fiberglass in-ground pool; Cleared, level lot; Paved road frontage on a county road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Owned water purifier
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dryer; Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Garbage disposal; Owned water purifier; Washer
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $762 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 5.9% in Homosassa Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#391 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lecanto Primary School (math 55% / reading 53%, grade C, #936 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 820 students, 63% FRL); Lecanto Middle School (math 49% / reading 49%, grade C-, #265 of 571 statewide, top 48%, 809 students, 55% FRL); Lecanto High School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,630 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 582 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $135k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.20%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,248
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5624 S Dunromin Pt	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,431 (-3%)	6mo	$225,000	$157	76
5292 S Bayliner St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-5%)	1mo	$170,000	$121	74
5341 S Oldfield Ave	0.19mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,484 (+1%)	11mo	$89,000	$60	71
5174 S Oldfield Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+10%)	1mo	$335,000	$207	68
5317 S Bayliner Pt	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,616 (+10%)	1mo	$173,000	$107	67
5738 W Sandstone Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-6%)	2mo	$87,000	$63	66
5510 S Delilah Pt	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-12%)	8mo	$169,500	$132	64
5800 S Greenfield Ter	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-14%)	4mo	$199,900	$158	55
5475 S Oldfield Ave	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-9%)	21mo	$172,000	$128	55
5599 S Glenn Acres Ter	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,678 (+14%)	2mo	$225,000	$134	52
5442 S Glenn Acres Ter	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-9%)	10mo	$200,000	$149	50
5384 W Starburst Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,294 (-12%)	13mo	$177,900	$137	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $26,612
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $85,456
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34446

• Home prices YoY: -10.4%
• Active inventory: 582
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,984 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $505/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $762

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,020

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $134,900 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $134,900 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,900 Active 156 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,900 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,900 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $134,900 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $134,900
16. 2026-01-07
    listed $140,000 Active
17. 2006-04-10
    soldstatus $80,000
18. 2005-02-04
    soldstatus $79,900
19. 1987-06-01
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $505 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,120 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$615/yr (+$51/mo · 121.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,810
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$505
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,905
• − Management: −$1,905
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $7,340
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,762
• After-tax cash flow: $7,380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Homosassa Springs

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #391
• US rank: #6877

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Homosassa Springs, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 18,797
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,102
• Household income: $58,802
• Rent vs Own: 6.9% rent · 93.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 121.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.11%
• Current HPI: 277.2576
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+169.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $134,900 RACC
• 2026-01-07 Listed $140,000 RACC
• 2006-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 1987-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $505 · +14.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.