1354 Elliott Rd #15 · Paradise, CA 95969

$104,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 292 Days on market

Built 2021 $99/sqft · 20% below area Est $131k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New manufactured home community in PARADISE, CA!!! 3 bedroom, 2 full baths. Paradise Mobile Estates features beautiful state-of-the-art manufactured homes with spacious living rooms appointed with vinyl wood flooring, contemporary bathroom designs, washer/dryer hookups and plenty of storage space.

Key facts

• Vinyl wood flooring
• Washer dryer hookups
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOMS
• VINYL WOOD FLOORING
• CONTEMPORARY BATHROOM DESIGNS
• WASHER DRYER HOOKUPS
• PLENTY OF STORAGE SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $462 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 2.6% in Paradise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#541 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A-, housing B+, crime B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 481 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 292 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,391 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 292 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.86%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $130,612
• List price: $104,990
• Delta: -19.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1354 Elliot Rd #25	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-2%)	6mo	$119,000	$114	93
1354 Elliott Rd #27	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,065 (+1%)	10mo	$105,000	$99	91
1354 Elliott Rd #14	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,136 (+8%)	10mo	$119,000	$105	79
1354 Elliot Rd #8	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+6%)	22mo	$125,000	$112	71
1432 Gordon	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-9%)	2mo	$220,000	$229	67
1562 Hemlock	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,041 (-1%)	2mo	$255,000	$245	59
5576 Heavenly Pl	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (+12%)	9mo	$265,000	$223	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $17,206
• Equity at exit: $15,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.52×
• Total profit: $73,983
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95969

• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 481
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,380 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $406/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $795

Max offer price $104,990

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $521	-5% $492	+0% $462	+5% $432	+10% $403
Rent	-10% $353	-5% $407	+0% $462	+5% $516	+10% $571
Rate	-1.0pp $515	-0.5pp $489	base $462	+0.5pp $435	+1.0pp $407

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,248
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1561 Kay Ct Paradise, CA	2.0	1.0	892	$898	$1.01	13d	1	0.60mi
1561 Kay Ct Unit D Paradise, CA	2.0	1.0	892	$898	$1.01	21d	1	0.60mi
5589 Linrich Ln Paradise, CA	2.0	2.0	1275	$1,995	$1.56	44d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $104,990 Active 292 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,990 Active 291 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,990 Active 290 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,990 Active 289 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,990 Active 288 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $104,990 Active 286 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,990 Active 285 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $104,990 Active 283 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,990 Active 282 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $104,990 Active 281 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $104,990 Active 280 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $104,990 Active 277 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $104,990 Active 276 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,990 Active 275 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,990 Active 274 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,990 Active 273 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $104,990 Active 272 DOM
18. 2025-10-27
    historical
19. 2025-05-15
    listed $119,990 Active
20. 2011-03-11
    historical
21. 2010-12-28
    listed $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $406 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $798 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$392/yr (+$33/mo · 96.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 42 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,559
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,881
• − Property taxes: −$406
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,325
• − Management: −$1,325
• − Depreciation: −$3,054
• Taxable income: $4,043
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$970
• After-tax cash flow: $4,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Paradise

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #541
• US rank: #18039

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paradise, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• City population: 8,339
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,339
• Household income: $69,067
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 218.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -410.40%
• Current HPI: 102.8367
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.37%
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+140.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-27 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-05-15 Listed $119,990 CRMLS
• 2011-03-11 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2010-12-28 Listed $49,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

-3.7%/yr

Latest (2018): $406 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.