770 Lincoln Ave #23 · Napa, CA 94558

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 191 Days on market

Built 2004 $171/sqft · at area comps Est $200k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newer built Home with lots of light in a conveniently located park for walking and shopping .. Ready to move in to and add your personal touches... 3 bedroom 2 bathroom with central air conditioning, cement siding that is always an added plus. Come see what we have to offer

Key facts

• Cement siding
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2004

Tags

• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• CEMENT SIDING
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 2.0% in Napa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#227 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Napa Valley Unified (urban): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #599 of 1,400 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 538 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $205k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.04%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,000
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: 2.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
770 Lincoln Ave #62	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	2mo	$200,000	$167	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $30,093
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $81,564
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94558

• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 538
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,534 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $615/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$742
• Net cashflow: $1,154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,074

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
727 Central Ave Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1210	$4,260	$3.52	13d	7	0.09mi
2593 Yajome St Napa, CA	2.0	2.0	1422	$3,950	$2.78	23d	1	0.33mi
700 Stonehouse Dr Napa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1045	$3,299	$3.16	13d	8	0.36mi
962 Jackson St Napa, CA	3.0	1.0	1041	$3,350	$3.22	43d	1	0.40mi
849 Laguna St Napa, CA	3.0	2.0	1340	$3,600	$2.69	43d	1	0.41mi
2701 Soscol Ave Apt B Napa, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,200	$2.20	43d	1	0.44mi
550 River Glen Dr Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	790	$2,197	$2.78	13d	12	0.45mi
2710 Cooper Ct Napa, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,995	$3.15	43d	2	0.54mi
2942 Soscol Ave Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	898	$3,201	$3.56	13d	18	0.64mi
327 Pear Tree Ln Unit B Napa, CA	3.0	3.0	1472	$3,990	$2.71	13d	1	0.65mi
2295 York St Napa, CA	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,850	$2.38	23d	1	0.66mi
3200 Soscol Ave Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	874	$3,816	$4.37	13d	13	0.76mi
3300 Old Soscol Way Napa, CA	2.0	2.0–2.5	1434	$3,900	$2.72	13d	6	0.81mi
713 Trancas St Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	833	$2,299	$2.76	13d	6	0.82mi
1509 Banks Ave Napa, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$4,450	$4.05	43d	1	0.87mi
1678 E St Napa, CA	2.0	1.0	1037	$2,750	$2.65	23d	1	0.89mi
1802 F St Napa, CA	2.0	2.0	942	$2,450	$2.60	23d	1	0.92mi
1518 Meek Ave Napa, CA	2.0	2.0	1276	$4,500	$3.53	43d	1	0.94mi
45 1st St Napa, CA	2.0	1.0	942	$3,100	$3.29	43d	1	0.94mi
3098 Stadium Ave Napa, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,250	$3.25	23d	1	0.97mi
1186 East Ave Napa, CA	2.0	1.5	1160	$3,500	$3.02	43d	1	0.99mi
3460 Shelter Creek Dr Napa, CA	2.0	1.5	1100	$3,100	$2.82	43d	1	1.01mi
463 Coffield Ave Apt 8 Napa, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,099	$3.00	23d	1	1.09mi
129 Firefly Ln Napa, CA	3.0	4.0	1496	$3,800	$2.54	43d	1	1.12mi
2283 1st St Napa, CA	2.0	2.0	1350	$3,700	$2.74	23d	1	1.14mi
2283 1st St Napa, CA	2.0	2.0	1350	$3,700	$2.74	43d	1	1.14mi
7 Michael Way Napa, CA	3.0	2.0	1320	$3,395	$2.57	43d	1	1.17mi
2614 1st St Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	867	$3,100	$3.57	13d	2	1.27mi
510 Coombs St Napa, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,700	$2.70	23d	1	1.27mi
2638 1st St Napa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	902	$3,435	$3.81	13d	6	1.29mi
2108 Lone Oak Ave Napa, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$4,200	$3.82	43d	1	1.30mi
2611 1st St Napa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	970	$3,600	$3.71	13d	6	1.34mi
162 Valley Oak Dr Napa, CA	2.0	2.0	1168	$2,750	$2.35	43d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 191 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 190 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 189 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 188 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $205,000 Active 186 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 185 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $205,000 Active 183 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 182 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 181 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active 180 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $205,000 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 174 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $205,000 Active 173 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $205,000 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Newer built Home with lots of light in a conveniently located park for walking and shopping .. Ready to move in to and add your personal touches... 3 bedroom 2 bathroom with central air conditioning, cement siding that is always an added plus. Come see what we have to offer

17. 2026-04-19
    price $202,000 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Newer built Home with lots of light in a conveniently located park for walking and shopping .. Ready to move in to and add your personal touches... 3 bedroom 2 bathroom with central air conditioning, cement siding that is always an added plus. Come see what we have to offer

18. 2026-03-03
    price $205,000 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Newer built Home with lots of light in a conveniently located park for walking and shopping .. Ready to move in to and add your personal touches... 3 bedroom 2 bathroom with central air conditioning, cement siding that is always an added plus. Come see what we have to offer

19. 2026-01-26
    price $207,500 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Newer built Home with lots of light in a conveniently located park for walking and shopping .. Ready to move in to and add your personal touches... 3 bedroom 2 bathroom with central air conditioning, cement siding that is always an added plus. Come see what we have to offer

20. 2025-12-09
    listed $209,000 Active 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Newer built Home with lots of light in a conveniently located park for walking and shopping .. Ready to move in to and add your personal touches... 3 bedroom 2 bathroom with central air conditioning, cement siding that is always an added plus. Come see what we have to offer

21. 2025-09-02
    price $209,000
22. 2025-06-09
    price $211,500
23. 2025-05-06
    listed $215,000 Active
24. 2017-05-25
    soldstatus $135,000 Sold
25. 2017-05-09
    historical Contingent
26. 2017-04-11
    price $149,000
27. 2017-02-22
    listed $169,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $615 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,558 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$943/yr (+$79/mo · 153.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$615
• − Insurance: −$6,144
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,393
• − Management: −$3,393
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable income: $11,419
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,740
• After-tax cash flow: $11,104/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Napa Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626640
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,007
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #7827
• State rank: #599 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Napa

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #7435

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Napa, CA
• County: Napa County · 120,669 people
• City population: 91,371
• Metro: Napa, CA
• Population (ZIP): 63,657
• Household income: $113,269
• Rent vs Own: 32.5% rent · 67.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2095.0

Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,987 people
• By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
• By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
• By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 15% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Napa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.9) · D 65.9% · R 31.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.9 2020: D+40.4 2016: D+35.2 2012: D+25.7 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -842.94%
• Current HPI: 296.0661
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.50%
• Metro: Napa, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+21.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $205,000 BAREIS
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $202,000 BAREIS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $205,000 BAREIS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $207,500 BAREIS
• 2025-12-09 Listed $209,000 BAREIS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $209,000 BAREIS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $211,500 BAREIS
• 2025-05-06 Listed $215,000 BAREIS
• 2017-05-25 Sold (MLS) $135,000 BAREIS
• 2017-05-09 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2017-04-11 Price Changed $149,000 BAREIS
• 2017-02-22 Listed $169,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $615 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.