38034 Via Del Largo · Murrieta, CA 92563

$409,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2003 3,920 sqft lot Est $346k · 18% over $95/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful move-in-ready home located in the 55+ community of Warm Springs Knolls. Open floorpan boasts 3 bedrooms including master suite with access to back patio. No rear neighbors. With lots of windows, and new flooring throughout the main living areas, this home is light and bright. 2 car attached garage w 433a permanent foundation and drywall (no paneling here folks :) - this home is a find! New water heater. Own your land. Qualifies for conventional, FHA, or VA loans. Low taxes & HOA. The clubhouse has a number of facilities including a pool, spa, kitchen and dining room + organized activities such as lunches, travel outings, physical fitness groups, and more. Golf course nearby. Easy access to shopping, freeways, grocery stores.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• No rear neighbors
• Natural light

Tags

• PERMANENT FOUNDATION
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• DIRECT ACCESS TO BACK PATIO
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• NATURAL LIGHT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in Warm Springs Knolls park; Directions available from 215 via Murrieta Hot Springs Road
• HOA & community: Part of an association with a $95 monthly fee; Community amenities include a pool; Located in a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Two total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story property; Mobile home remains on site
• Construction: Year built (per public records)
• Exterior features: Community/association pool; Close to clubhouse

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms with bathtub
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating
• Interior features: One-level home with front-door entry
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $409k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $393k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $341k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $341k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.0% in Murrieta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#279 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Murrieta Valley Unified (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #255 of 1,400 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Monte Vista Elementary (784 students, 53% FRL); Dorothy Mcelhinney Middle (1,396 students, 44% FRL); Vista Murrieta High (3,493 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 23% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 239 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($125k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $341,410 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.92%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $345,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37967 Via La Colina	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	0mo	$439,250	$291	88
38212 Via La Colina	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$345,000	$240	84
38171 Via La Colina	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,392 (-3%)	0mo	$138,000	$99	80
28925 Calle Alta	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$255,550	$177	77
38070 Via La Colina	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-14%)	5mo	$379,900	$308	68
38195 Via Taffia	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-5%)	2mo	$345,000	$252	67
28698 Via Princesa	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-10%)	2mo	$278,215	$215	60
38619 Calle De La Siesta	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	3mo	$390,000	$290	58
38069 Calle De Amor	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (+8%)	3mo	$205,000	$131	58
38038 Calle De Amor	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+7%)	6mo	$346,000	$225	57
38190 Camino Cinife	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+5%)	2mo	$500,000	$331	55
38240 Calle Arrebol	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,632 (+13%)	4mo	$292,700	$179	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-78,562
• Equity at exit: $60,983

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-101,957
• Equity at exit: $35,363

Cash invested: $114,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92563

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,414 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,145
• Tax from tax record: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$95
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$717
• Net cashflow: $-88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,526

Max offer price $393,441

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $143	-5% $28	+0% $-88	+5% $-204	+10% $-320
Rent	-10% $-358	-5% $-223	+0% $-88	+5% $47	+10% $182
Rate	-1.0pp $118	-0.5pp $16	base $-88	+0.5pp $-194	+1.0pp $-302

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,250
• Closing costs: $12,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39484 Via Montalvo Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1808	$6,500	$3.60	45d	1	0.26mi
39656 Columbia Union Dr Unit C Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,925	$2.08	26d	1	0.88mi
39930 Whitewood Rd Murrieta, CA	2.0	2.0	1015	$2,410	$2.37	0d	11	0.94mi
39668 Princeton Way Unit C Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,900	$2.06	7d	1	0.94mi
25295 Shadescale Dr Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.0	1368	$2,950	$2.16	26d	1	0.96mi
26137 Oakcreek Union Dr Unit C Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,950	$2.10	1d	1	0.98mi
26133 Williams Way Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.0	1408	$3,100	$2.20	45d	1	1.00mi
39875 Alpine Union St Unit B Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1654	$2,795	$1.69	45d	1	1.04mi
25268 Shadescale Dr Murrieta, CA	4.0	2.0	1493	$2,940	$1.97	45d	1	1.04mi
39930 Alpine Union St Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1654	$2,795	$1.69	1d	1	1.07mi
28221 Via Princesa Unit 4 Murrieta, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,950	$1.95	45d	1	1.11mi
29677 Woodlands Ave Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.0	1143	$2,700	$2.36	26d	1	1.13mi
29324 Calle Gaviota Murrieta, CA	3.0	3.0	1854	$3,150	$1.70	45d	1	1.23mi
28611 Calle del Lago Murrieta, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,975	$2.19	26d	1	1.23mi
28611 Calle Del Lago Unit c Murrieta, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,975	$2.19	26d	1	1.23mi
40213 Calle Real Unit 40213 Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1427	$2,795	$1.96	7d	1	1.27mi
26440 Saint Ives Ct Murrieta, CA	4.0	2.0	1740	$3,495	$2.01	6d	1	1.28mi
40120 Calle Yorba Vista Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1700	$3,200	$1.88	45d	1	1.33mi
40319 Calle Real Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1427	$2,900	$2.03	26d	1	1.41mi
39896 Snow Gum Ln Murrieta, CA	4.0	2.0	1520	$3,200	$2.11	45d	1	1.43mi
40324 Calle Real Murrieta, CA	2.0	2.5	1336	$2,495	$1.87	7d	1	1.44mi
24650 Morningstar Dr Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.0	1444	$2,995	$2.07	16d	1	1.44mi
40358 Calle Real Murrieta, CA	3.0	3.0	1427	$2,795	$1.96	45d	1	1.45mi
25100 Vista Murrieta Murrieta, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	893	$2,702	$3.03	0d	51	1.47mi
38245 Murrieta Hot Springs Rd Murrieta, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$3,375	$3.31	0d	24	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $95 · $1,140/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $409,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $409,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $409,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $409,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $409,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $409,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,500 · $375/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,500 · $375/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,910
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$2,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,278
• − Management: −$3,278
• − HOA: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$11,898
• Taxable loss: −$8,079
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,939
• After-tax cash flow: $882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Murrieta Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600029
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,615
• Composite: 53.42/100
• National rank: #3152
• State rank: #255 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Murrieta

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #279
• US rank: #9348

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Murrieta, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 145,160
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 80,379
• Household income: $125,397
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1075.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 17% Asian 13% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 17% Tagalog/Filipino 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.79%
• Current HPI: 341.728
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1414.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $409,000 CRMLS
• 2021-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $370,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-13 Sold (MLS) $370,000 CRMLS
• 2021-05-10 Pending — CRMLS
• 2021-04-25 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2021-04-20 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2021-04-20 Listed $359,990 CRMLS
• 2021-04-17 Coming Soon $359,990 CRMLS
• 2004-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $259,000 Public Records
• 1999-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 1990-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,500 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.