190 Tara Rd · Cub Run, KY 42729

$80,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 70 Days on market

1.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Affordable Nolin Lake getaway, weekend retreat, Private setting near the lake.

Key facts

• 1.34 acre lot
• Listed 69 days

Tags

• PRIVATE SETTING NEAR THE LAKE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: From Cub Run, 4 miles West on Hwy 88, left on Dog Creek d for 2 miles; Listing broker: Coldwell Banker Legacy Group; Listing agent contact: Cell 270-528-1274

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Mobile home (residential); Single-family subtype; Located near Nolin Lake; 1.34-acre lot
• Exterior features: Deck; Garden; Has view; Shed(s); Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and electric heating; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Garden view

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $288 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($966 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Edmonson County (rural): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #53 of 165 in KY (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kyrock Elementary School (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #35 of 676 statewide, top 6%, 299 students, 54% FRL); Edmonson County 5/6 Center (math 22% / reading 38%, grade F, #146 of 217 statewide, top 69%, 253 students, 52% FRL); Edmonson County High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 592 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Edmonson County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $80k implies a 419% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $75,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.41%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.12% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $28,457
• Equity at exit: $36,534

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $74,937
• Equity at exit: $56,744

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42729

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $966 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $270/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $602

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $80,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $80,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $80,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $80,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $80,000 Active 50 DOM
18. 2026-04-10
    listed $80,000 Active
19. 2009-03-19
    soldstatus $15,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $270 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $688 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$418/yr (+$35/mo · 154.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,591
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$270
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$927
• − Management: −$927
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $2,258
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$542
• After-tax cash flow: $2,911/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edmonson County
• NCES district ID: 2101620
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $38,615
• Composite: 30.88/100
• National rank: #6119
• State rank: #53 of 165 in KY

Livability — Cub Run

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,635

Population outlook (Edmonson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,032 people
• By 2030: 11,768 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 11,038 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 10,147 · -15.7%
• By 2075: 8,085 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 6,540 · -45.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Hungarian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Edmonson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.9) · D 17.9% · R 80.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.7pp toward R · 2008: -36.2pp · 2024: -62.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.9 2020: R+58.7 2016: R+60.2 2012: R+39.8 2008: R+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Current HPI: 214.6945
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+419.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $80,000 RASKMLS
• 2009-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $15,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $270 · +27.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.