3781 Granada Dr #3 · Palisade, CO 81526

$44,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 208 Days on market

Built 1980 Est $84k · 46% under $720/mo HOA · 52% of rent ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to easy, low-maintenance living in this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home located in the quiet and desirable 55+ community of Rio Vista Mobile Home Park—right in the heart of Palisade, Colorado. This well-cared-for home features brand-new triple-pane windows throughout, offering excellent energy efficiency, lower utility costs, and year-round comfort—cooler summers and warmer winters. Inside, you’ll find new flooring that gives the home a fresh, modern feel, along with a remodeled bathroom designed for comfort and functionality. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio, the perfect spot for peaceful mornings or relaxing evenings while taking in

Key facts

• Triple-pane windows
• New flooring
• Covered patio

Tags

• TRIPLE-PANE WINDOWS
• NEW FLOORING
• FULLY REMODELED BATHROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• QUIET COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Rio Vista Mobil subdivision; Elevation approximately 4600 ft
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $720; HOA fee includes water, sewer, and trash; Land is leased (rented lot)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile home (Single wide); Residential property facing north
• Construction: Wood siding; Rolled/Hot Mop roof
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio; Patio; Landscaped; Paved road access; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Electric oven, Electric range, Microwave, Refrigerator; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet located in hall

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 1.6% in Palisade — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#71 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities D, commute F, employment F.
• Mesa County Valley School District No. 51 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #43 of 86 in CO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Taylor Elementary School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #405 of 966 statewide, top 43%, 321 students, 33% FRL); Palisade High School (math 35% / reading 57%, grade D-, #138 of 381 statewide, top 36%, 1,125 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 1,014 units permitted in Mesa County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 52% of rent.

Recommended offer $39,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.72%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $83,720
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 E 8th St #101	0.08mi	2/1.0	768 (+6%)	3mo	$83,000	$108	84
131 N Bower Ave #66	0.75mi	2/1.0	684 (-6%)	19mo	$79,000	$115	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-354
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $9,816
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81526

• Home prices YoY: -32.8%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,378 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$12 /mo · $148/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$720
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,249

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $720 · $8,640/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-27
   price $44,900
2. 2025-12-23
   price $50,000
3. 2025-10-30
   listed $59,900 Active
4. 2025-09-17
   price $59,900
5. 2025-09-04
   price $65,000
6. 2025-07-11
   listed $70,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $148 · $12/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $247 · $21/mo
• Expected delta: +$99/yr (+$8/mo · 66.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$148
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,323
• − Management: −$1,323
• − HOA: −$8,640
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $1,053
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$253
• After-tax cash flow: $969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesa County Valley School District No. 51
• NCES district ID: 0804350
• Math proficiency: 26% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,189
• Composite: 27.83/100
• National rank: #6884
• State rank: #43 of 86 in CO

Livability — Palisade

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #6511

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palisade, CO
• Population (ZIP): 5,397

Population outlook (Mesa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,000 people
• By 2030: 154,479 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 155,257 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 153,384 · +0.3%
• By 2075: 144,735 · -5.4%
• By 2100: 123,825 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mesa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.3) · D 36.6% · R 61.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -29.5pp · 2024: -24.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.3 2020: R+28.0 2016: R+36.3 2012: R+32.8 2008: R+29.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.47%
• Current HPI: 386.9216
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-35.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $44,900 GJARA
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $50,000 GJARA
• 2025-10-30 Listed $59,900 GJARA
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $59,900 GJARA
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $65,000 GJARA
• 2025-07-11 Listed $70,000 GJARA

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $148 · +95.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.