5570 W Limberlost Ave · Knik-Fairview, AK 99623

$149,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 914 sqft · Other public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1982 0.43 ac lot $163/sqft · 46% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable beginnings. 3 bed home w/ a extra 4th room. Well, septic, electric, and oil heat. Natural gas in the street. Privat lot near all amenities. Owner financing with large down. Drive by to see must have appointment. Dog in home. Should be able to do conventional Financing. Needs this that n the other but workable.

Key facts

• 0.43 acre lot
• Built 1982
• Listed 133 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $698 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.3% in Knik-Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $131,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.08%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $334,638
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -55.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $20,611
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $76,384
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99623

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,003 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $491/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $698

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,120

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $149,000 Pending 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $149,000 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,000 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-02-02
    listed $149,000 Active 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Affordable beginnings. 3 bed home w/ a extra 4th room. Well, septic, electric, and oil heat. Natural gas in the street. Privat lot near all amenities. Owner financing with large down. Drive by to see must have appointment. Dog in home. Should be able to do conventional Financing. Needs this that n the other but workable.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $491 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,132 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$641/yr (+$53/mo · 130.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$491
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,923
• − Management: −$1,923
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $6,276
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,506
• After-tax cash flow: $6,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Knik-Fairview

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Knik-Fairview, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 23,424
• Household income: $88,799
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 10% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.82%
• Current HPI: 200.2242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Listed $149,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $491 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.