8816 Valleybrook Rd · Birmingham, AL 35206

$129,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1965 0.60 ac lot Est $145k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention Investors: Great opportunity to buy ranch home in Roebuck. The property has 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, Living Room. The home is located on large lot with attached carport and 1 car basement garage. The home has a large deck overlooking the lot. Make your appointment to see it. Home was built prior to 1978, Lead Based Paint Potentially Exists. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee).

Key facts

• Laundry room
• Nice deck
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• NICE DECK
• MOSTLY FENCED BACK YARD
• NEW FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in the Glenbrook subdivision; Approximately 0.6 acre lot

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 total garage spaces: 1 on main level, 1 in basement); Basement parking / lower level parking; Driveway parking; Off-street parking; One carport space; Front garage entry
• Utilities: Public water; Connected sewer; Internet service available; Electric water heater
• Home design: Existing home; Basement foundation; Concrete block basement (all unfinished)
• Construction: Brick over foundation; Wood construction
• Exterior features: Open deck; Interior lot; No pool; No patio; No garden/patio; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher (built-in); Refrigerator; Electric stove; Laminate countertops; Eating area
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level; Additional bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central cooling (electric)
• Interior features: Smooth ceilings; One gas fireplace with stone surround in the living room; Eating area
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($338/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, employment F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Christian School (math 19% / reading 60%, grade F, #243 of 627 statewide, top 41%, 633 students, 62% FRL); Huffman High Schoolmagnet (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #291 of 305 statewide, top 100%, 1,147 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 82% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 128 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $129k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,510 (8.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.78%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,288
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
432 Chestnut St	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,139 (-0%)	15mo	$145,000	$127	76
528 Cedar St	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,116 (-2%)	12mo	$110,000	$99	71
8600 10th Ave S	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,112 (-3%)	15mo	$75,000	$67	64
848 86th St S	0.26mi	3/3.0	1,226 (+7%)	4mo	$155,000	$126	64
8609 10th Ave S	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-9%)	6mo	$134,900	$130	62
669 Ridge Top Cir	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,202 (+5%)	3mo	$153,500	$128	58
433 Somerset Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,240 (+8%)	4mo	$225,000	$181	56
824 85th St S	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,269 (+11%)	7mo	$96,000	$76	51
528 Elm St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,024 (-10%)	11mo	$190,000	$186	51
732 S 84th St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,036 (-9%)	6mo	$65,000	$63	45
411 Valley Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,252 (+9%)	8mo	$110,000	$88	44
461 Ridge Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,311 (+15%)	2mo	$258,000	$197	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-20,472
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-20,975
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35206

• Home prices YoY: -32.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,185 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,467/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,149

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8621 10th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,400	$1.13	23d	1	0.39mi
425 87th St S Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	890	$1,077	$1.21	43d	1	0.71mi
8229 9th Ave S Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	997	$1,195	$1.20	3d	1	0.84mi
636 83rd Pl S Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,175	$1.11	43d	1	0.86mi
8513 4th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,150	$1.00	43d	1	0.88mi
624 83rd Pl S Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	780	$975	$1.25	43d	1	0.88mi
8408 5th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	890	$1,295	$1.46	10d	1	0.91mi
8408 5th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,528	$1.39	43d	1	0.91mi
8917 Roebuck Blvd Apt 11 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	880	$725	$0.82	16d	1	0.92mi
745 82nd Pl S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,168	$0.97	2d	1	0.92mi
730 82nd Pl S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	896	$1,023	$1.14	3d	1	0.96mi
8242 Vassar Ave Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	1212	$1,100	$0.91	43d	1	0.97mi
8211 Rugby Ave Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	966	$1,250	$1.29	43d	1	0.99mi
775 81st Pl S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,095	$0.89	23d	1	1.01mi
8122 Rugby Ave Unit B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$795	$0.88	43d	1	1.05mi
735 81st St S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,400	$1.14	23d	1	1.10mi
764 81st St S Unit B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	43d	1	1.10mi
731 81st St S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1221	$995	$0.81	10d	1	1.11mi
600 Sundale Dr Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	950	$800	$0.84	43d	1	1.12mi
9228 Brookhurst Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1146	$999	$0.87	43d	1	1.13mi
8202 4th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1178	$1,075	$0.91	43d	1	1.15mi
768 80th Pl S Unit 1 Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1134	$1,200	$1.06	43d	1	1.15mi
8013 Rugby Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,150	$0.79	23d	1	1.18mi
8240 2nd Ave S Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	990	$875	$0.88	23d	1	1.20mi
514 81st St S Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1174	$1,295	$1.10	43d	1	1.21mi
512 81st St S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1156	$1,150	$0.99	43d	1	1.22mi
8416 Division Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,350	$0.92	43d	1	1.22mi
630 Lisa Ln Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1201	$1,095	$0.91	43d	1	1.23mi
832 79th Pl S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	23d	1	1.23mi
8108 4th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,200	$0.87	43d	1	1.25mi
7808 Vienna Ave Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	904	$850	$0.94	43d	1	1.28mi
7931 7th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1320	$1,450	$1.10	43d	1	1.29mi
8035 4th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,050	$0.96	43d	1	1.30mi
8129 2nd Ave S Unit B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$800	$0.89	43d	1	1.31mi
726 Orchard Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,095	$0.98	43d	1	1.31mi
8128 2nd Ave S Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	1390	$1,150	$0.83	23d	1	1.33mi
8149 1st Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	43d	1	1.33mi
7825 Rugby Ct Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	929	$875	$0.94	21d	1	1.37mi
7827 Rugby Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1365	$850	$0.62	3d	1	1.37mi
7823 Rugby Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1023	$1,175	$1.15	43d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 451-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    statusdays on market $129,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $129,000 Contingent 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $129,000 Active
16. 2023-10-25
    historical $1,350
17. 2023-10-22
    listed $1,350
18. 2022-08-08
    soldstatus $51,000 Sold 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Attention Investors: Great opportunity to buy ranch home in Roebuck. The property has 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, Living Room. The home is located on large lot with attached carport and 1 car basement garage. The home has a large deck overlooking the lot. Make your appointment to see it. Home was built prior to 1978, Lead Based Paint Potentially Exists. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee).

19. 2022-07-03
    status Pending 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Attention Investors: Great opportunity to buy ranch home in Roebuck. The property has 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, Living Room. The home is located on large lot with attached carport and 1 car basement garage. The home has a large deck overlooking the lot. Make your appointment to see it. Home was built prior to 1978, Lead Based Paint Potentially Exists. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee).

20. 2022-06-29
    historical Contingent 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Attention Investors: Great opportunity to buy ranch home in Roebuck. The property has 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, Living Room. The home is located on large lot with attached carport and 1 car basement garage. The home has a large deck overlooking the lot. Make your appointment to see it. Home was built prior to 1978, Lead Based Paint Potentially Exists. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee).

21. 2022-06-24
    listed $37,500 Active 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Attention Investors: Great opportunity to buy ranch home in Roebuck. The property has 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, Living Room. The home is located on large lot with attached carport and 1 car basement garage. The home has a large deck overlooking the lot. Make your appointment to see it. Home was built prior to 1978, Lead Based Paint Potentially Exists. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee).

22. 1986-10-07
    soldstatus $50,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,467 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,467 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,221
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,467
• − Insurance: −$1,312
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,138
• − Management: −$1,138
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$1,812
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$435
• After-tax cash flow: $773/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 15,621
• Household income: $42,549
• Rent vs Own: 51.1% rent · 48.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1169.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 22% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.70%
• Current HPI: 146.2168
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.82%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+156.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $129,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-10-25 Rental Removed $1,350 LISTANZA
• 2023-10-22 Listed for Rent $1,350 LISTANZA
• 2022-08-08 Sold (MLS) $51,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-07-03 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-06-29 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-06-24 Listed $37,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 1986-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $50,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,467 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.