16225 N Cave Creek Rd #31 · Phoenix, AZ 85032

$67,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 92 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition $80/sqft · 54% above area ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ON LEASED LAND - 55+ GATED COMMUNITY Beautiful 2 bed, 2 bath manufactured home, built in 2020, with all appliances including washer and dryer and a covered carport. Enjoy resort-style amenities: heated pool & spa, clubhouse with kitchen, billiards, shuffleboard, library, fitness center, and active social events. Low-maintenance landscaping. Easy access to shopping, restaurants, and transit. Buyer must be approved by park management. Motivated seller - don't miss this opportunity! Buyer to verify all facts and figures.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Fitness center
• Heated pool

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• HEATED POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $67k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $484 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $67k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $463 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $60,970 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.99%
• DSCR: 2.38
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $43,648
• List price: $67,000
• Delta: 53.50%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16225 N Cave Creek Rd #32	0.00mi	2/2.0	840 (0%)	22mo	$79,900	$95	82
16225 N Cave Creek Rd #106	0.00mi	2/1.0	720 (-14%)	12mo	$25,000	$35	62
2618 E Sandra Ter	0.24mi	3/1.5 (+1)	820 (-2%)	21mo	$170,000	$207	61
16225 N Cave Creek Rd #9	0.00mi	2/1.0	720 (-14%)	19mo	$9,000	$13	56
2644 E Kelton Ln	0.40mi	2/1.8	932 (+11%)	14mo	$225,900	$242	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $16,500
• Equity at exit: $9,990

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $40,587
• Equity at exit: $5,793

Cash invested: $18,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85032

• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,199 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$351
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$84 /mo · $1,005/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $484

Break-even live

Break-even rent $586

Max offer price $67,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $531	-5% $508	+0% $484	+5% $461	+10% $438
Rent	-10% $390	-5% $437	+0% $484	+5% $532	+10% $579
Rate	-1.0pp $518	-0.5pp $501	base $484	+0.5pp $467	+1.0pp $449

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,750
• Closing costs: $2,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2424 E Grandview Rd Apt 310 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	25d	1	0.11mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 112 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$856	$1.56	25d	1	0.11mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$829	$1.18	25d	1	0.11mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 312 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$856	$1.56	23d	1	0.11mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	23d	1	0.11mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,159	$1.66	25d	1	0.11mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	575	$942	$1.64	5d	6	0.11mi
16033 N 25th St Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	8d	1	0.19mi
16621 N 25th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	570	$899	$1.58	8d	1	0.28mi
2616 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 2624-2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	825	$1,095	$1.33	25d	1	0.28mi
2616 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 2624-4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	825	$999	$1.21	6d	1	0.28mi
2432 E Tracy Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,375	$1.38	19d	1	0.30mi
16627 N 25th St Unit 23 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	765	$1,145	$1.50	25d	1	0.34mi
16437 N 31st St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	687	$1,049	$1.53	3d	4	0.36mi
16801 N 26th St Apt 17 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	25d	1	0.40mi
2201 E Kathleen Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1068	$2,405	$2.25	25d	1	0.48mi
2802 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	929	$950	$1.02	25d	1	0.48mi
2807 E Paradise Ln Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1124	$1,475	$1.31	25d	1	0.48mi
15425 N 25th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	677	$1,149	$1.70	8d	5	0.49mi
2807 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$865	$0.96	25d	1	0.50mi
15651 N 27th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,300	$1.48	25d	1	0.51mi
15601 N 27th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	894	$1,422	$1.59	6d	2	0.51mi
2826 E Le Marche Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	725	$1,000	$1.38	6d	1	0.52mi
2819 E Marconi Ave Unit 201 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$950	$1.06	25d	1	0.53mi
2814 E Kathleen Rd #102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	25d	1	0.53mi
2826 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	929	$1,295	$1.39	17d	1	0.53mi
2826 E Monte Cristo Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	929	$1,295	$1.39	16d	1	0.54mi
15601 N 27th St #18 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	888	$1,495	$1.68	15d	1	0.56mi
2718 E Beck Ln Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	950	$1,295	$1.36	25d	1	0.56mi
2838 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	780	$1,200	$1.54	8d	1	0.56mi
2821 E Kathleen Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$900	$0.81	25d	1	0.57mi
2821 E Kathleen Rd Unit 101 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1106	$900	$0.81	25d	1	0.57mi
2822 E Kathleen Rd Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	850	$1,100	$1.29	6d	1	0.57mi
2726 E Beck Ln Unit 03 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	916	$1,295	$1.41	25d	1	0.57mi
2844 E Marconi Ave Unit 101 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1123	$1,550	$1.38	23d	1	0.58mi
2837 E Marconi Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	25d	1	0.58mi
2837 E Marconi Ave Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$975	$1.08	25d	1	0.58mi
2725 E Beck Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	916	$1,395	$1.52	15d	1	0.60mi
2615 E Greenway Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	692	$1,250	$1.81	17d	4	0.60mi
2615 E Greenway Rd Apt 20 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	650	$1,200	$1.85	25d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $67,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $67,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $67,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $67,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $67,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $67,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $67,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $67,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $67,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $67,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $67,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $67,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $67,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $67,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $67,000 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    price $67,000 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    ON LEASED LAND - 55+ GATED COMMUNITY Beautiful 2 bed, 2 bath manufactured home, built in 2020, with all appliances including washer and dryer and a covered carport. Enjoy resort-style amenities: heated pool & spa, clubhouse with kitchen, billiards, shuffleboard, library, fitness center, and active social events. Low-maintenance landscaping. Easy access to shopping, restaurants, and transit. Buyer must be approved by park management. Motivated seller - don't miss this opportunity! Buyer to verify all facts and figures.

17. 2026-03-21
    listed $72,500 Active 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    ON LEASED LAND - 55+ GATED COMMUNITY Beautiful 2 bed, 2 bath manufactured home, built in 2020, with all appliances including washer and dryer and a covered carport. Enjoy resort-style amenities: heated pool & spa, clubhouse with kitchen, billiards, shuffleboard, library, fitness center, and active social events. Low-maintenance landscaping. Easy access to shopping, restaurants, and transit. Buyer must be approved by park management. Motivated seller - don't miss this opportunity! Buyer to verify all facts and figures.

18. 2025-11-24
    historical
19. 2025-11-07
    price $74,500
20. 2025-01-25
    price $79,850
21. 2024-10-10
    listed $83,950 Active
22. 2024-05-17
    historical
23. 2024-05-04
    listed $85,000 Active
24. 2024-03-31
    historical
25. 2024-03-07
    listed $95,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,753
• − Property taxes: −$1,005
• − Insurance: −$335
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,151
• − Management: −$1,151
• − Depreciation: −$1,949
• Taxable income: $5,047
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,211
• After-tax cash flow: $4,602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2020 manufactured home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet with tile or hardwood flooring — Improves durability and aesthetic
• Both Install new kitchen backsplash — Enhances kitchen aesthetics and value
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Improves ambiance and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with tile or hardwood flooring — Improves durability and aesthetic ↑
• Both Install new kitchen backsplash — Enhances kitchen aesthetics and value ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Improves ambiance and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 70,839
• Household income: $78,643
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2887.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 17% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 21% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -488.65%
• Current HPI: 339.4181
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.46%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-29.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $67,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed $72,500 ARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $74,500 ARMLS
• 2025-01-25 Price Changed $79,850 ARMLS
• 2024-10-10 Listed $83,950 ARMLS
• 2024-05-17 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-05-04 Listed $85,000 ARMLS
• 2024-03-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-03-07 Listed $95,000 ARMLS