225 Stark · Kyle, TX 78640

$228,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $267k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The family room, dining room and kitchen are arranged in a convenient open floorplan in this single-level home, offering seamless transition between spaces to help make multitasking simple. Three bedrooms complete this residence, including an owner's suite with a private en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 15 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $228,999

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home (Montour plan)
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing); Spec home
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,230 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Montour plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($348/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laura B Negley El (math 42% / reading 51%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 1,007 students, 29% FRL); R C Barton Middle (math 56% / reading 52%, grade B-, #270 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 816 students, 33% FRL); Jack C Hays H S (math 41% / reading 47%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,062 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1820 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,998 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.54%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $266,910
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
189 Bugbee	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,230 (0%)	4mo	$229,990	$187	92
125 Bugbee	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,230 (0%)	3mo	$230,990	$188	90
415 Keefer	0.17mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,228 (-0%)	1mo	$205,990	$168	84
3221 Everett St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+15%)	5mo	$300,990	$213	64
3290 Everett St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+15%)	3mo	$305,990	$217	64
3345 Everett St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+15%)	3mo	$304,990	$216	63
190 Barcelona	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,274 (+4%)	13mo	$299,000	$235	55
381 Barcelona St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,278 (+4%)	15mo	$285,000	$223	47
130 Tofalla	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+15%)	21mo	$313,990	$223	42
1495 Marley	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+15%)	22mo	$335,990	$238	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-41,207
• Equity at exit: $34,144

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-56,481
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1820
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,435/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,003

Max offer price $228,999

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $187	-5% $108	+0% $29	+5% $-50	+10% $-129
Rent	-10% $-132	-5% $-52	+0% $29	+5% $110	+10% $190
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $87	base $29	+0.5pp $-30	+1.0pp $-91

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
397 Keefer Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,850	$1.28	4d	1	0.17mi
250 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,899	$1.49	14d	1	0.67mi
321 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$2,600	$2.04	19d	1	0.70mi
3875 Burnham Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$2,793	$2.92	0d	42	0.71mi
252 Patagonia Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1434	$2,000	$1.39	6d	1	0.74mi
541 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,950	$1.53	6d	1	0.83mi
201 Edwin Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1333	$1,950	$1.46	18d	1	0.95mi
510 Kohlers Xing Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,731	$1.77	45d	1	0.99mi
4300 Cromwell Dr Kyle, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	845	$2,295	$2.71	5d	13	1.15mi
4624 Cromwell Dr Kyle, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1172	$1,790	$1.53	4d	8	1.39mi
1050 Wittenburg Kyle, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,685	$1.91	3d	19	1.44mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $228,999 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $228,999 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $228,999 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $228,999 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $228,999 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $228,999 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $228,999 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $228,999 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 318-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $228,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,435
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$3,506
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$842
• After-tax cash flow: $1,190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a modern and well-maintained interior with good curb appeal. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can add value
• Rental Replace window screens — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Rental Replace window screens — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kyle, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B