16 Bivona Lane Lot 10 · Orange Lake, NY 12553

$89,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 952 sqft · Manufactured · 93 Days on market

Built 2015 Fair condition $94/sqft · at area comps Est $93k · at est. $1112/mo HOA · 41% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home showcasing exceptional attention to detail throughout. This gem features a bright open floor plan with a spacious living room, cathedral ceilings, and laminate wood flooring throughout. The thoughtfully designed layout offers a private primary suite with two closets and an en-suite full bath, set apart from the two additional bedrooms for added privacy. The kitchen boasts abundant cabinetry, generous counter space, and a deep sink, while custom oak built-ins, a bookcase, and a dedicated computer desk maximize both style and functionality. Additional upgrades include expanded parking, a 9x9 shed with flooring, landscaping, outdoor lighting, central air, updated light fixtures with dimmers, custom blinds, and a water system. Ideally located just minutes from town conveniences with easy access to I-84, I-87, Route 9W, Route 17, plus trains and buses to NYC, NYC is only 60 miles away. Don’t miss this one — it won’t last long!

Key facts

• Expanded parking
• Abundant cabinetry
• Custom oak built-ins

Tags

• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• CUSTOM OAK BUILT-INS
• EXPANDED PARKING
• OUTDOOR LIGHTING
• CENTRAL AIR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $420 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 2.8% in Orange Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#972 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Newburgh City School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #500 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $63k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 41% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,809 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.04%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,286
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -3.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Bivona Lane Lot 10	0.00mi	3/2.0	952 (0%)	0mo	$84,000	$88	100
11 Square Hill Rd #11	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,012 (+6%)	15mo	$126,229	$125	56
18 Square Hill Rd #29	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-9%)	12mo	$98,000	$113	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $12,929
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $48,675
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12553

• Home prices YoY: -31.7%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,726 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$1,112
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$572
• Net cashflow: $420

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,194

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,112 · $13,344/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscaping

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 999-char remark

   Show marketing remark (999 chars)

   Beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home showcasing exceptional attention to detail throughout. This gem features a bright open floor plan with a spacious living room, cathedral ceilings, and laminate wood flooring throughout. The thoughtfully designed layout offers a private primary suite with two closets and an en-suite full bath, set apart from the two additional bedrooms for added privacy. The kitchen boasts abundant cabinetry, generous counter space, and a deep sink, while custom oak built-ins, a bookcase, and a dedicated computer desk maximize both style and functionality. Additional upgrades include expanded parking, a 9x9 shed with flooring, landscaping, outdoor lighting, central air, updated light fixtures with dimmers, custom blinds, and a water system. Ideally located just minutes from town conveniences with easy access to I-84, I-87, Route 9W, Route 17, plus trains and buses to NYC, NYC is only 60 miles away. Don’t miss this one — it won’t last long!

2. 2026-04-06
   price $89,900 999-char remark

   Show marketing remark (999 chars)

   Beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home showcasing exceptional attention to detail throughout. This gem features a bright open floor plan with a spacious living room, cathedral ceilings, and laminate wood flooring throughout. The thoughtfully designed layout offers a private primary suite with two closets and an en-suite full bath, set apart from the two additional bedrooms for added privacy. The kitchen boasts abundant cabinetry, generous counter space, and a deep sink, while custom oak built-ins, a bookcase, and a dedicated computer desk maximize both style and functionality. Additional upgrades include expanded parking, a 9x9 shed with flooring, landscaping, outdoor lighting, central air, updated light fixtures with dimmers, custom blinds, and a water system. Ideally located just minutes from town conveniences with easy access to I-84, I-87, Route 9W, Route 17, plus trains and buses to NYC, NYC is only 60 miles away. Don’t miss this one — it won’t last long!

3. 2026-03-13
   price $96,000 999-char remark

   Show marketing remark (999 chars)

   Beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home showcasing exceptional attention to detail throughout. This gem features a bright open floor plan with a spacious living room, cathedral ceilings, and laminate wood flooring throughout. The thoughtfully designed layout offers a private primary suite with two closets and an en-suite full bath, set apart from the two additional bedrooms for added privacy. The kitchen boasts abundant cabinetry, generous counter space, and a deep sink, while custom oak built-ins, a bookcase, and a dedicated computer desk maximize both style and functionality. Additional upgrades include expanded parking, a 9x9 shed with flooring, landscaping, outdoor lighting, central air, updated light fixtures with dimmers, custom blinds, and a water system. Ideally located just minutes from town conveniences with easy access to I-84, I-87, Route 9W, Route 17, plus trains and buses to NYC, NYC is only 60 miles away. Don’t miss this one — it won’t last long!

4. 2026-02-10
   listed $99,000 Active 999-char remark

   Show marketing remark (999 chars)

   Beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home showcasing exceptional attention to detail throughout. This gem features a bright open floor plan with a spacious living room, cathedral ceilings, and laminate wood flooring throughout. The thoughtfully designed layout offers a private primary suite with two closets and an en-suite full bath, set apart from the two additional bedrooms for added privacy. The kitchen boasts abundant cabinetry, generous counter space, and a deep sink, while custom oak built-ins, a bookcase, and a dedicated computer desk maximize both style and functionality. Additional upgrades include expanded parking, a 9x9 shed with flooring, landscaping, outdoor lighting, central air, updated light fixtures with dimmers, custom blinds, and a water system. Ideally located just minutes from town conveniences with easy access to I-84, I-87, Route 9W, Route 17, plus trains and buses to NYC, NYC is only 60 miles away. Don’t miss this one — it won’t last long!

5. 2020-08-07
   soldstatus $62,900 1246-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1246 chars)

   Beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home. Attention to detail in every way in this immaculate gem. Custom built-in cabinets added throughout the home to make use of all space. Features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Master Bedroom offers two closets and an attached full bath. The master is on one side of the home and the other two bedrooms are on the other side offering privacy. Featuring open floor plan, large living room, cathedral ceilings, laundry area, kitchen with tons of cabinets and plenty of counter space. Upgrades include expanded parking, 9x9 shed with flooring, Landscaping, outdoor lighting, central air, deep kitchen sink, laminate wood flooring throughout, oak cabinet built-ins throughout (35), custom bookcase and computer desk, updating light fixtures with dimmers, customer blinds, water system and so much more! Great location just minutes from town conveniences and 84, 87 and 9W. Call now, this one will not last long. 60 Miles to NYC close to 84, 87, 17 & trains and buses to NYC.,FLOORING:Vinyl,Wood,ExteriorFeatures:Landscaped,AboveGrade:952,ROOF:Asphalt Shingles,FOUNDATION:Slab,OTHERROOMS:Pantry,Laundry/Util. Room,EQUIPMENT:Carbon Monoxide Detector,Heating:Central Heat,ASNFENCLDS:Taxes,Mobile Home Park Fees,Management

6. 2020-05-26
   listed $64,800 1246-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1246 chars)

   Beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home. Attention to detail in every way in this immaculate gem. Custom built-in cabinets added throughout the home to make use of all space. Features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Master Bedroom offers two closets and an attached full bath. The master is on one side of the home and the other two bedrooms are on the other side offering privacy. Featuring open floor plan, large living room, cathedral ceilings, laundry area, kitchen with tons of cabinets and plenty of counter space. Upgrades include expanded parking, 9x9 shed with flooring, Landscaping, outdoor lighting, central air, deep kitchen sink, laminate wood flooring throughout, oak cabinet built-ins throughout (35), custom bookcase and computer desk, updating light fixtures with dimmers, customer blinds, water system and so much more! Great location just minutes from town conveniences and 84, 87 and 9W. Call now, this one will not last long. 60 Miles to NYC close to 84, 87, 17 & trains and buses to NYC.,FLOORING:Vinyl,Wood,ExteriorFeatures:Landscaped,AboveGrade:952,ROOF:Asphalt Shingles,FOUNDATION:Slab,OTHERROOMS:Pantry,Laundry/Util. Room,EQUIPMENT:Carbon Monoxide Detector,Heating:Central Heat,ASNFENCLDS:Taxes,Mobile Home Park Fees,Management

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,713
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,617
• − Management: −$2,617
• − HOA: −$13,344
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $4,686
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,125
• After-tax cash flow: $3,920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, particularly in the kitchen and paint, but has potential for significant value increase with a fresh paint job and updated kitchen cabinets.

Repairs flagged

• Major paint — paint appears faded and needs touch-up
• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear on edges

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint job — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both kitchen cabinets — New or refinished cabinets can enhance the kitchen's functionality and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
paint · paint appears faded and needs touch-up	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen cabinets · slight wear on edges	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$15,500–53,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint job — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both kitchen cabinets — New or refinished cabinets can enhance the kitchen's functionality and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newburgh City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620700
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,387
• Composite: 35.46/100
• National rank: #4927
• State rank: #500 of 590 in NY

Livability — Orange Lake

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #972
• US rank: #18993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 27,384
• Household income: $92,757
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 960.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 13% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.96%
• Current HPI: 314.8506
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+38.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $89,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $96,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Listed $99,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-07 Sold (MLS) $62,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-26 Listed $64,800 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid