115 Miller Rd · Tawas, MI 48763

$114,777

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,458 sqft · Manufactured public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1996 1.27 ac lot $79/sqft · 28% below area Est $159k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced to Sell!!! Great location for this 1996 Manufactured home with 4 bedrooms (or 3 with a Den) and 2 full baths. Within walking distance to Minors Grove party store. Close to Hospital, shopping, Lake Huron, Huron National Forest, Ausable River & the beautiful Lumberman's Monument. Wood-burning, beautiful stone fireplace. Attached oversized 2 car garage. Square footage does not include the added bumped out closet into the garage from the entry/dinette space. Estate Sale being SOLD AS-IS, Where-IS.

Key facts

• 1.27 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1996

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $307 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Tawas Area Schools (rural): math 34% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #190 of 540 in MI (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Iosco County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Iosco County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $86k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $107,890 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.45%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,239
• List price: $114,777
• Delta: -27.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $886
• Equity at exit: $17,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $25,744
• Equity at exit: $9,924

Cash invested: $32,138 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48763

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,265 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$602
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $516/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $307

Break-even live

Break-even rent $877

Max offer price $114,777

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,694
• Closing costs: $3,443
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,777 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,777 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,777 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,777 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,777 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $114,777 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,777 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,777 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $114,777 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,777 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $114,777 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $114,777 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    price $129,900 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Priced to Sell!!! Great location for this 1996 Manufactured home with 4 bedrooms (or 3 with a Den) and 2 full baths. Within walking distance to Minors Grove party store. Close to Hospital, shopping, Lake Huron, Huron National Forest, Ausable River & the beautiful Lumberman's Monument. Wood-burning, beautiful stone fireplace. Attached oversized 2 car garage. Square footage does not include the added bumped out closet into the garage from the entry/dinette space. Estate Sale being SOLD AS-IS, Where-IS.

17. 2026-04-28
    price $129,900 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Priced to Sell!!! Great location for this 1996 Manufactured home with 4 bedrooms (or 3 with a Den) and 2 full baths. Within walking distance to Minors Grove party store. Close to Hospital, shopping, Lake Huron, Huron National Forest, Ausable River & the beautiful Lumberman's Monument. Wood-burning, beautiful stone fireplace. Attached oversized 2 car garage. Square footage does not include the added bumped out closet into the garage from the entry/dinette space. Estate Sale being SOLD AS-IS, Where-IS.

18. 2026-03-26
    listed $139,900 Active 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Priced to Sell!!! Great location for this 1996 Manufactured home with 4 bedrooms (or 3 with a Den) and 2 full baths. Within walking distance to Minors Grove party store. Close to Hospital, shopping, Lake Huron, Huron National Forest, Ausable River & the beautiful Lumberman's Monument. Wood-burning, beautiful stone fireplace. Attached oversized 2 car garage. Square footage does not include the added bumped out closet into the garage from the entry/dinette space. Estate Sale being SOLD AS-IS, Where-IS.

19. 2026-03-26
    listed $139,900 Active 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Priced to Sell!!! Great location for this 1996 Manufactured home with 4 bedrooms (or 3 with a Den) and 2 full baths. Within walking distance to Minors Grove party store. Close to Hospital, shopping, Lake Huron, Huron National Forest, Ausable River & the beautiful Lumberman's Monument. Wood-burning, beautiful stone fireplace. Attached oversized 2 car garage. Square footage does not include the added bumped out closet into the garage from the entry/dinette space. Estate Sale being SOLD AS-IS, Where-IS.

20. 2008-08-08
    soldstatus $85,715
21. 2008-08-01
    soldstatus $85,715
22. 2007-05-12
    listed $84,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $516 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,142 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$626/yr (+$52/mo · 121.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,429
• − Property taxes: −$516
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,214
• − Management: −$1,214
• − Depreciation: −$3,339
• Taxable income: $1,893
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$454
• After-tax cash flow: $3,225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tawas Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2633510
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,651
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4891
• State rank: #190 of 540 in MI

Livability — Tawas

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,837

Population outlook (Iosco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,366 people
• By 2030: 23,622 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 22,021 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 20,877 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 18,792 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 15,465 · -36.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 6% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Iosco

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.6) · D 34.0% · R 64.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.7pp toward R · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: -30.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.6 2020: R+28.6 2016: R+30.0 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.19%
• Current HPI: 250.8991
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+53.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $129,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-26 Listed $139,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-26 Listed $139,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-08-08 Sold (MLS) $85,715 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $85,715 Public Records
• 2007-05-12 Listed $84,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $516 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.