708 Crystal River Rd · Conroe, TX 77316

$249,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,828 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 2022 7,135 sqft lot $137/sqft · at area comps Est $246k · at est. $10/mo HOA ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Immaculate 2-story home near Lake Conroe featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a 1-car attached garage, extensive driveway, and covered porch! The 1st floor offers wood vinyl plank flooring, all neutral paint throughout, open floorplan great for entertaining, recessed lighting, and an island kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Also downstairs, the primary bedroom suite has dual vanities, walk-in shower, walk-in closet, and adjacent utility closet. Upstairs holds the 3 secondary bedrooms and 2nd full bath while the backyard offers a patio. Located with easy access to TX-105, shopping, dining, resorts, and more off Lake Conroe!

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Island kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• WOOD VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIMARY BEDROOM SUITE
• DUAL VANITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $483 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $235k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,990 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.27%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,757
• List price: $249,990
• Delta: 1.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
907 Crystal River Rd	0.12mi	4/2.5	1,829 (+0%)	7mo	$270,000	$148	89
907 Columbia River Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,784 (-2%)	1mo	$383,000	$215	75
273 Mesa Vw	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,823 (-0%)	0mo	$239,500	$131	62
412 Harlow Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-0%)	6mo	$219,990	$120	57
1007 W Cedar River Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,585 (-13%)	1mo	$275,000	$174	54
1113 W Cedar River Rd	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,632 (-11%)	7mo	$229,900	$141	54
132 Golfview Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-2%)	4mo	$299,000	$167	53
1608 Mohawk Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,896 (+4%)	2mo	$500,000	$264	53
256 Mesa Vw	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,901 (+4%)	1mo	$275,000	$145	52
537 Mohawk Bnd	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,920 (+5%)	5mo	$300,000	$156	49
919 N Hunting Tower Run Run	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,564 (-14%)	6mo	$550,000	$352	44
109 Moonspinner	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,579 (-14%)	6mo	$225,000	$142	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-17,154
• Equity at exit: $37,274

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-4,086
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $69,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,938 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$413 /mo · $4,958/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$617
• Net cashflow: $483

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,327

Max offer price $249,990

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $624	-5% $553	+0% $483	+5% $412	+10% $341
Rent	-10% $250	-5% $367	+0% $483	+5% $599	+10% $715
Rate	-1.0pp $608	-0.5pp $546	base $483	+0.5pp $418	+1.0pp $352

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,498
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
702 Crystal River Rd Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1820	$4,000	$2.20	45d	1	0.03mi
15310 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,720	$1.22	3d	1	0.77mi
613 Craven St Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,610	$0.94	45d	1	0.86mi
15242 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1881	$1,780	$0.95	6d	1	0.89mi
15231 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1922	$1,760	$0.92	22d	1	0.89mi
632 Levine Ct Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	2239	$2,275	$1.02	8d	1	0.90mi
583 Firemoon St Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,650	$1.17	22d	1	0.99mi
4777 Holly Ln W Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$1,450	$0.85	20d	1	1.21mi
425 McCaleb Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	922	$1,677	$1.82	0d	17	1.36mi
16913 Glenheath Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1700	$1,571	$0.92	45d	1	1.42mi
16984 W Juneau Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1530	$2,900	$1.90	45d	1	1.42mi
116 Lake View Cir Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1751	$2,250	$1.28	45d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,990 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,990 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,990 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,990 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,990 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,990 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,990 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,990 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,990 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,990 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,990 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,990 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,990 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,990 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,990 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    listed $255,000 Active 657-char remark

    Show marketing remark (657 chars)

    Immaculate 2-story home near Lake Conroe featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a 1-car attached garage, extensive driveway, and covered porch! The 1st floor offers wood vinyl plank flooring, all neutral paint throughout, open floorplan great for entertaining, recessed lighting, and an island kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Also downstairs, the primary bedroom suite has dual vanities, walk-in shower, walk-in closet, and adjacent utility closet. Upstairs holds the 3 secondary bedrooms and 2nd full bath while the backyard offers a patio. Located with easy access to TX-105, shopping, dining, resorts, and more off Lake Conroe!

17. 2024-11-30
    historical $1,699
18. 2024-11-27
    price $1,699
19. 2024-11-13
    price $1,745
20. 2024-10-28
    price $1,795
21. 2024-09-07
    listed $1,845
22. 2024-08-30
    historical
23. 2024-02-09
    listed $280,000 Active
24. 2023-12-01
    historical $1,745
25. 2023-09-19
    listed $1,745
26. 2022-08-03
    historical
27. 2022-07-29
    soldstatus Sold
28. 2022-05-24
    status Pending
29. 2022-05-23
    listed $259,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,958 · $413/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,958 · $413/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,254
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,003
• − Property taxes: −$4,958
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,820
• − Management: −$2,820
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$7,272
• Taxable income: $2,009
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$482
• After-tax cash flow: $5,308/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-30 Rental Removed $1,699 RENT.
• 2024-11-27 Price Changed $1,699 RENT.
• 2024-11-13 Price Changed $1,745 RENT.
• 2024-10-28 Price Changed $1,795 RENT.
• 2024-09-07 Listed for Rent $1,845 RENT.
• 2024-08-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-09 Listed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-01 Rental Removed $1,745 RENT.
• 2023-09-19 Listed for Rent $1,745 RENT.
• 2022-08-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-07-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-05-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-05-23 Listed $259,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+17.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,958 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.