3407 La Follette Dr · Jeffersontown, KY 40299

$210,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,268 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 1984 9,322 sqft lot Est $257k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * Looking to BET on BUILDING SWEAT EQUITY this Derby Week? * * * . Look no further than this mint condition JTown RANCH! The interior is a cosmetic playground where YOU can go in and make this wonderful home your own! GREAT fenced backyard! AWESOME LOCATION, very functional floor plan w/ formal living room, MASSIVE Kitchen, and a cozy family room! The yard is flat and spacious. This one is going to draw a Derby-sized crowd, so schedule your showing today! Offers shall be submitted by 5 PM, Sunday, May 3 with a response no later than noon on Monday, May 4.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Cozy family room
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• MASSIVE KITCHEN
• COZY FAMILY ROOM
• FLAT YARD
• SPACIOUS YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family ranch-style home; One story; Built in 1984
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Located on a 0.21-acre lot; Subdivision: HILLRIDGE EAST; Directions available

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen located on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first floor; Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: One HVAC unit; Electric heating with heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Four closets; One fireplace on the first floor; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floor; First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($238/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.2% in Jeffersontown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#68 in KY, #1,520 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 228 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,273 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.40%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,404
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3407 La Follette Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,268 (0%)	1mo	$204,828	$162	99
3704 Ethelwood Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,272 (+0%)	5mo	$258,600	$203	73
3901 Longview Rd	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,218 (-4%)	3mo	$274,500	$225	67
3309 Warson Ct	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-15%)	1mo	$219,600	$203	65
9005 Raintree Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,257 (-1%)	3mo	$309,900	$247	62
3701 Glenlea Way	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,291 (+2%)	5mo	$191,000	$148	61
9708 Galene Dr	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,137 (-10%)	4mo	$210,000	$185	58
8812 Raintree Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-1%)	6mo	$300,000	$240	55
3125 Lynnwood Way	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,209 (-5%)	6mo	$215,000	$178	53
9610 Watterson Trl	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,359 (+7%)	2mo	$285,000	$210	47
9002 Green Garden Ct	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,386 (+9%)	2mo	$318,000	$229	45
3121 Lynnwood Way	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,388 (+10%)	4mo	$245,500	$177	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-30,382
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-14,764
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40299

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,763 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,208/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,738

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3600 Ember Cir Louisville, KY	4.0	1.5	1272	$1,770	$1.39	16d	1	0.29mi
3805 Bigelow Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1674	$2,100	$1.25	23d	1	0.34mi
9601 Balsam Way Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	962	$1,405	$1.46	2d	29	0.58mi
292 Stoke on Trent St Jeffersontown, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	955	$1,499	$1.57	3d	9	0.62mi
3706 Locust Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1146	$1,799	$1.57	2d	1	0.76mi
3061 Sprowl Rd Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	862	$1,299	$1.51	3d	8	0.95mi
4208 Prince Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	925	$1,499	$1.62	16d	1	1.04mi
9106 Talitha Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,035	$1.44	11d	1	1.08mi
10400 Pavilion Way Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$1,869	$1.85	3d	20	1.20mi
10012 Michaele Ln Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,100	$1.02	16d	1	1.22mi
10012 Michaele Ln Unit 7 Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,100	$1.02	23d	1	1.22mi
4006 Mimosa View Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.5	1652	$2,150	$1.30	14d	1	1.47mi
4007 Mimosa View Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1720	$2,100	$1.22	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-04
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-29
   listed $210,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,208 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,208 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$2,208
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,692
• − Management: −$1,692
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$3,362
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$807
• After-tax cash flow: $1,044/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Jeffersontown

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #68
• US rank: #1520

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jeffersontown, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 42,207
• Household income: $89,440
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 887.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 11% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.19%
• Current HPI: 220.9191
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.34%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-05-04 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $210,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,208 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.