14495 Forest Dr · Cobb Island, MD 20664

$149,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 592 Days on market

Built 1968 0.46 ac lot ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Cute home on almost 1/2 Acre. Three Bedrooms and one Bath. Being sold as is. New well in 2024.

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Built 1968
• Listed 592 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $536 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 3.1% in Cobb Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 43/100 on livability (#482 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 592 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 592 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.32%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $9,897
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $52,794
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20664

• Home prices YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,730/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $536

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,362

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $621	-5% $578	+0% $536	+5% $493	+10% $451
Rent	-10% $375	-5% $455	+0% $536	+5% $617	+10% $697
Rate	-1.0pp $611	-0.5pp $574	base $536	+0.5pp $497	+1.0pp $458

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-04
   price $149,900
3. 2026-02-12
   price $175,000
4. 2025-10-27
   price $199,900
5. 2025-06-20
   price $210,000
6. 2024-09-04
   price $224,900
7. 2024-08-30
   price $229,900
8. 2024-08-30
   status Active
9. 2024-08-24
   status Pending
10. 2024-07-22
    listed $199,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,730 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,730 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,485
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,730
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,959
• − Management: −$1,959
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $4,331
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,039
• After-tax cash flow: $5,391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charles County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400270
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $90,389
• Composite: 22.54/100
• National rank: #8087
• State rank: #14 of 24 in MD

Livability — Cobb Island

• Score: 43/100
• State rank: #482
• US rank: #26883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,135
• Population (ZIP): 3,121

Population outlook (Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,616 people
• By 2030: 186,471 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 206,472 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 224,883 · +27.3%
• By 2075: 272,101 · +54.1%
• By 2100: 303,564 · +71.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 14% Two or more races 6% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.7) · D 69.2% · R 28.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.2pp toward D · 2008: 25.5pp · 2024: 40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.7 2020: D+40.9 2016: D+30.2 2012: D+31.3 2008: D+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.20%
• Current HPI: 261.9526
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $149,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-04 Price Changed $224,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-08-30 Price Changed $229,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-08-30 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-08-24 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-22 Listed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,730 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.