9461 State Highway 193 #26 · Placerville, CA 95667

$109,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,034 sqft · Manufactured public records · 138 Days on market

Built 1997 17 ac lot $105/sqft · 21% below area Est $138k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home located in the peaceful Sierra Pines Mobile Manor, a desirable 55+ senior community. Offering 1,034 square feet of comfortable living space, this home features an additional room that can be used as a den, office, hobby room, or easily converted into a third bedroom. Enjoy year-round comfort and peace of mind with a built-in generator, along with a covered carport for convenient parking. A screened-in room provides the perfect spot to relax and enjoy the quiet surroundings, while a storage shed adds extra functionality. Situated in a quiet, well-maintained park, this home offers the best of both worldsclose to Placerville and Geor

Key facts

• Built-in generator
• Covered carport
• Storage shed

Tags

• BUILT-IN GENERATOR
• COVERED CARPORT
• SCREENED-IN ROOM
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $872 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 2.8% in Placerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#553 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Black Oak Mine Unified (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #278 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.5%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.28%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,929
• List price: $109,000
• Delta: -20.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9461 State Highway 193 #8	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (-3%)	23mo	$115,000	$115	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $47,902
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.21×
• Total profit: $158,937
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95667

• Rents YoY: 12.5%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,909 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $228/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $872

Break-even live

Break-even rent $805

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $228 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $828 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$600/yr (+$50/mo · 263.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,903
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$228
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,832
• − Management: −$1,832
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $9,189
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,205
• After-tax cash flow: $8,256/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Black Oak Mine Unified
• NCES district ID: 0605240
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $68,195
• Composite: 29.96/100
• National rank: #6371
• State rank: #278 of 517 in CA

Livability — Placerville

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #553
• US rank: #18366

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing B+ Health & safety B- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: El Dorado County · 144,198 people
• City population: 36,830
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 36,830
• Household income: $89,938
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1147.0

Population outlook (El Dorado County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,666 people
• By 2030: 193,662 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 192,583 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 185,904 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 169,543 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 139,623 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · El Dorado

• 2024 margin: R (+12.0) · D 42.6% · R 54.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -12.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.0 2020: R+8.8 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -480.50%
• Current HPI: 262.6014
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.48%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2023): $228 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.