216 Vivian Ln · Oildale, CA 93308

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1974 $74/sqft · at area comps Est $81k · at est. $750/mo HOA · 49% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity in the gated Riverdale Village Mobile Home Park!. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers 1,152 sq ft of comfortable living space. Built in 1974 and well maintained, it features a spacious living room, formal dining area, functional kitchen layout, and indoor laundry. Refrigerator, washer, dryer, and stove are all included making this a true move-in-ready opportunity. Covered parking with direct access into the home adds convenience and privacy. Residents have access to the community clubhouse, swimming pool, playground, dog park, reception hall for events, and basketball court. Park maintenance and landscaping are included. Priced competitively, this is a great option for buyers who want space and amenities at an affordable entry point with room to update over time if desired. Space rent $750

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Community clubhouse
• Formal dining area

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN LAYOUT
• INDOOR LAUNDRY
• COVERED PARKING
• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-418/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $79k (7.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.9% in Oildale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#680 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, schools B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Beardsley Elementary (suburban): math 7% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #501 of 517 in CA (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $85k implies a 240% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 49% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.75%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $81,280
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: 4.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Dogwood Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	8mo	$65,000	$56	89
282 Florence Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	16mo	$111,000	$96	82
256 Mary Kay Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	3mo	$130,000	$104	81
305 Kings Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-1%)	13mo	$99,900	$88	81
48 Cedarwood Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	1mo	$70,000	$56	81
180 Kings Ln	0.13mi	3/1.8	1,152 (0%)	23mo	$90,000	$78	74
131 Fernwood Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	15mo	$120,000	$96	67
322 Nita Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	980 (-15%)	9mo	$75,000	$77	61
300 Florence Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+12%)	20mo	$99,500	$77	57
17 Torrey Pine Ln	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (-13%)	17mo	$48,300	$48	51
170 Hickorywood Ln	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (+15%)	19mo	$95,000	$72	46
545 Willow Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,041 (-10%)	24mo	$265,000	$255	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-16,760
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-20,547
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93308

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,546 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $300/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$750
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,590

Max offer price $78,852

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
811 Beardsley Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,295	$1.62	2d	1	0.19mi
627 Beardsley Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	967	$1,575	$1.63	43d	1	0.24mi
706 Huskey Dr Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	832	$1,450	$1.74	43d	1	0.26mi
627 Hood Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,795	$1.57	2d	1	0.35mi
213 Oildale Dr Unit A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	928	$1,195	$1.29	2d	1	0.38mi
327 McCord Ave Unit 6 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	2d	1	0.53mi
448 S Oildale Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,500	$1.39	2d	1	0.53mi
819 Washington Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	767	$1,295	$1.69	2d	1	0.57mi
222 Moneta Ave Unit 222 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,700	$1.63	2d	1	0.68mi
611 Wilson Ave Unit B Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,195	$1.59	43d	1	0.72mi
419 Washington Ave Unit 417 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	975	$1,500	$1.54	2d	1	0.73mi
222 Harding Ave Unit B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	2d	1	0.73mi
901 Castaic Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	1076	$1,700	$1.58	2d	1	0.82mi
1405 Yosemite Dr Unit 1405 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	712	$1,100	$1.54	43d	1	0.88mi
1207 El Tejon Ave Unit 1 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1212	$1,950	$1.61	2d	1	0.92mi
709 Francis St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	43d	1	1.00mi
106 E Warren Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1169	$1,400	$1.20	10d	1	1.02mi
3333 El Encanto Ct Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	990	$1,495	$1.51	2d	1	1.05mi
3333 El Encanto Ct Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	990	$1,595	$1.61	14d	1	1.05mi
1951 Golden State Ave Bakersfield, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1017	$1,695	$1.67	2d	2	1.17mi
1905 McCray St Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	736	$1,450	$1.97	2d	1	1.21mi
411 Highland Dr Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	1051	$1,650	$1.57	2d	1	1.33mi
3817 K St Unit A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	763	$1,285	$1.68	2d	1	1.36mi
615 W China Grade Loop Bakersfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,850	$2.11	2d	6	1.36mi
1201 40th St Bakersfield, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	870	$1,219	$1.40	2d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $750 · $9,000/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolsecurity

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-03-10
    listed $85,000 Active 824-char remark

    Show marketing remark (824 chars)

    Opportunity in the gated Riverdale Village Mobile Home Park!. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers 1,152 sq ft of comfortable living space. Built in 1974 and well maintained, it features a spacious living room, formal dining area, functional kitchen layout, and indoor laundry. Refrigerator, washer, dryer, and stove are all included making this a true move-in-ready opportunity. Covered parking with direct access into the home adds convenience and privacy. Residents have access to the community clubhouse, swimming pool, playground, dog park, reception hall for events, and basketball court. Park maintenance and landscaping are included. Priced competitively, this is a great option for buyers who want space and amenities at an affordable entry point with room to update over time if desired. Space rent $750

16. 2026-03-03
    listed $85,000 Active 826-char remark

    Show marketing remark (826 chars)

    Opportunity in the gated Riverdale Village Mobile Home Park!. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers 1,152 sq ft of comfortable living space. Built in 1974 and well maintained, it features a spacious living room, formal dining area, functional kitchen layout, and indoor laundry. Refrigerator, washer, dryer, and stove are all included making this a true move-in-ready opportunity. Covered parking with direct access into the home adds convenience and privacy. Residents have access to the community clubhouse, swimming pool, playground, dog park, reception hall for events, and basketball court. Park maintenance and landscaping are included. Priced competitively, this is a great option for buyers who want space and amenities at an affordable entry point with room to update over time if desired. Space rent $750

17. 2025-07-17
    historical
18. 2025-06-11
    listed $90,000 Active
19. 2025-05-28
    price $90,000
20. 2025-04-30
    historical
21. 2025-01-17
    listed $87,900 Active
22. 2025-01-14
    listed $87,900 Active
23. 2024-10-14
    listed $99,900 Active
24. 2024-10-05
    status Active
25. 2024-10-05
    price $99,900
26. 2024-08-25
    price $100,000
27. 2024-07-25
    price $105,000
28. 2024-05-15
    listed $110,000 Active
29. 2024-01-10
    price $110,000
30. 2023-11-03
    price $115,000
31. 2022-02-04
    soldstatus $25,000 Sold
32. 2021-11-23
    status Pending
33. 2021-11-20
    listed $25,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $300 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $646 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: +$346/yr (+$29/mo · 115.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 39 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,552
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$300
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,484
• − Management: −$1,484
• − HOA: −$9,000
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable loss: −$1,375
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$330
• After-tax cash flow: $-88/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beardsley Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0604260
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $28,808
• Composite: 9.63/100
• National rank: #9841
• State rank: #501 of 517 in CA

Livability — Oildale

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #680
• US rank: #20848

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oildale, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 55,078
• Household income: $62,445
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2931.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 825.65
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.22%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+240.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $85,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $85,000 GEMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-06-11 Listed $90,000 CRMLS
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $90,000 GEMLS
• 2025-04-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-01-17 Listed $87,900 CRMLS
• 2025-01-14 Listed $87,900 GEMLS
• 2024-10-14 Listed $99,900 GEMLS
• 2024-10-05 Relisted — GEMLS
• 2024-10-05 Price Changed $99,900 GEMLS
• 2024-08-25 Price Changed $100,000 GEMLS
• 2024-07-25 Price Changed $105,000 GEMLS
• 2024-05-15 Listed $110,000 GEMLS
• 2024-01-10 Price Changed $110,000 GEMLS
• 2023-11-03 Price Changed $115,000 GEMLS
• 2022-02-04 Sold (MLS) $25,000 GEMLS
• 2021-11-23 Pending — GEMLS
• 2021-11-20 Listed $25,000 GEMLS

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $300 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.