9519 Garrett Pine Ln · Houston, TX 77044

$234,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,879 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 2007 4,400 sqft lot $125/sqft · at area comps Est $236k · at est. $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! This well-maintained two-story home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and is a must-see. Enjoy the open-concept floor plan, perfect for gathering with family and friends. The home offers multiple seating and living areas, providing flexibility for entertaining or relaxing. Upstairs, you’ll find a spacious media/game room. Outside, enjoy a perfectly sized backyard with a covered patio and built-in barbecue—ideal for outdoor living. The community offers two parks and a walking trail. Conveniently located close to shopping, restaurants, and major highways including Beltway 8, I-10, and Highway 90, making commuting a breeze. Come see this beautiful home for yourself and make it yours. Call today to schedule your private tour!

Key facts

• Walking trail
• Spacious media room
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• MULTIPLE SEATING AREAS
• SPACIOUS MEDIA ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• BUILT-IN BARBECUE
• WALKING TRAIL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Sheldon ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #746 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 337 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,850 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.79%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,728
• List price: $234,900
• Delta: -0.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10023 Yanet Grove Ln	0.27mi	4/2.5	1,960 (+4%)	2mo	$270,000	$138	78
10011 Orchid Spring Ln	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,951 (+4%)	4mo	$250,000	$128	72
9523 Brandon Rock Ln	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,088 (+11%)	4mo	$235,000	$113	68
9734 Vanessa Glen Ct	0.50mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,800 (-4%)	1mo	$290,000	$161	64
13111 Italian Cypress Trl	0.60mi	4/2.5	1,788 (-5%)	3mo	$255,000	$143	61
9115 Georgio Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,829 (-3%)	2mo	$274,999	$150	61
9110 Saint Laurent Ln	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,743 (-7%)	0mo	$260,000	$149	56
10114 Orchid Spring Ln	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,655 (-12%)	4mo	$219,990	$133	56
10223 Dawson Hill Ln	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,634 (-13%)	0mo	$229,900	$141	55
12819 Blue Timbers Ct	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,801 (-4%)	3mo	$229,900	$128	52
13206 Chanel Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,981 (+5%)	4mo	$249,999	$126	50
9518 Belleclaire Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,665 (-11%)	1mo	$193,200	$116	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-37,946
• Equity at exit: $50,167

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-49,780
• Equity at exit: $47,293

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,233 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$550 /mo · $6,606/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,427

Max offer price $207,850

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-20	-5% $-87	+0% $-153	+5% $-220	+10% $-286
Rent	-10% $-330	-5% $-241	+0% $-153	+5% $-65	+10% $23
Rate	-1.0pp $-35	-0.5pp $-93	base $-153	+0.5pp $-214	+1.0pp $-276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10103 Dawson Hill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2021	$2,249	$1.11	22d	1	0.37mi
13206 Clifton Hill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,500	$1.53	18d	1	0.42mi
10306 White Fir Villa Ave Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,100	$1.35	44d	1	0.61mi
13030 Sandhill Park Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2402	$2,120	$0.88	2d	1	0.70mi
10007 Copper Hollow Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1773	$1,700	$0.96	45d	1	0.73mi
13150 Cutler Ridge Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2264	$2,195	$0.97	6d	1	0.77mi
9418 Belleclaire Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,950	$1.37	25d	1	0.79mi
10410 Solitude Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2174	$2,100	$0.97	3d	1	0.87mi
12319 Garden Gale Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,766	$1.03	6d	1	1.07mi
12703 Enchanted Path Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,701	$1.19	13d	1	1.23mi
12315 Roy Mix Bohn Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,750	$1.22	44d	1	1.36mi
12227 Ghita Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,750	$1.22	44d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $234,900 Pending 118 DOM
2. 2026-04-11
   price $234,900 762-char remark

   Show marketing remark (762 chars)

   Welcome home! This well-maintained two-story home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and is a must-see. Enjoy the open-concept floor plan, perfect for gathering with family and friends. The home offers multiple seating and living areas, providing flexibility for entertaining or relaxing. Upstairs, you’ll find a spacious media/game room. Outside, enjoy a perfectly sized backyard with a covered patio and built-in barbecue—ideal for outdoor living. The community offers two parks and a walking trail. Conveniently located close to shopping, restaurants, and major highways including Beltway 8, I-10, and Highway 90, making commuting a breeze. Come see this beautiful home for yourself and make it yours. Call today to schedule your private tour!

3. 2026-03-10
   price $244,900 762-char remark

   Show marketing remark (762 chars)

   Welcome home! This well-maintained two-story home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and is a must-see. Enjoy the open-concept floor plan, perfect for gathering with family and friends. The home offers multiple seating and living areas, providing flexibility for entertaining or relaxing. Upstairs, you’ll find a spacious media/game room. Outside, enjoy a perfectly sized backyard with a covered patio and built-in barbecue—ideal for outdoor living. The community offers two parks and a walking trail. Conveniently located close to shopping, restaurants, and major highways including Beltway 8, I-10, and Highway 90, making commuting a breeze. Come see this beautiful home for yourself and make it yours. Call today to schedule your private tour!

4. 2026-03-01
   price $249,900 762-char remark

   Show marketing remark (762 chars)

   Welcome home! This well-maintained two-story home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and is a must-see. Enjoy the open-concept floor plan, perfect for gathering with family and friends. The home offers multiple seating and living areas, providing flexibility for entertaining or relaxing. Upstairs, you’ll find a spacious media/game room. Outside, enjoy a perfectly sized backyard with a covered patio and built-in barbecue—ideal for outdoor living. The community offers two parks and a walking trail. Conveniently located close to shopping, restaurants, and major highways including Beltway 8, I-10, and Highway 90, making commuting a breeze. Come see this beautiful home for yourself and make it yours. Call today to schedule your private tour!

5. 2026-02-02
   price $255,000 762-char remark

   Show marketing remark (762 chars)

   Welcome home! This well-maintained two-story home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and is a must-see. Enjoy the open-concept floor plan, perfect for gathering with family and friends. The home offers multiple seating and living areas, providing flexibility for entertaining or relaxing. Upstairs, you’ll find a spacious media/game room. Outside, enjoy a perfectly sized backyard with a covered patio and built-in barbecue—ideal for outdoor living. The community offers two parks and a walking trail. Conveniently located close to shopping, restaurants, and major highways including Beltway 8, I-10, and Highway 90, making commuting a breeze. Come see this beautiful home for yourself and make it yours. Call today to schedule your private tour!

6. 2026-02-02
   listed $250,000 Active 762-char remark

   Show marketing remark (762 chars)

   Welcome home! This well-maintained two-story home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and is a must-see. Enjoy the open-concept floor plan, perfect for gathering with family and friends. The home offers multiple seating and living areas, providing flexibility for entertaining or relaxing. Upstairs, you’ll find a spacious media/game room. Outside, enjoy a perfectly sized backyard with a covered patio and built-in barbecue—ideal for outdoor living. The community offers two parks and a walking trail. Conveniently located close to shopping, restaurants, and major highways including Beltway 8, I-10, and Highway 90, making commuting a breeze. Come see this beautiful home for yourself and make it yours. Call today to schedule your private tour!

7. 2021-02-02
   soldstatus
8. 2021-01-31
   soldstatus Sold 735-char remark

   Show marketing remark (735 chars)

   Welcome, Home! This gorgeous two-story 4 bedroom, 2 bath home is one you want to come and see for yourself. Come and enjoy the open floor concept with family and friends. This beauty offers an additional room/study with beautiful well detail barn door(s). Every room in this home is spacious with walk-in closet in most rooms. The home offers various setting areas for family and friends and even pets; including a media/game room upstairs. The backyard is the perfect size for family pet fun. It even offers a covered patio with a built-in bar-b-que for that inspired home chef. If that is not enough how about NEW fresh paint and carpet throughout the home. Come out and call this home. Call for your private tour. (Motivated Seller)

9. 2020-12-23
   status Pending 735-char remark

   Show marketing remark (735 chars)

   Welcome, Home! This gorgeous two-story 4 bedroom, 2 bath home is one you want to come and see for yourself. Come and enjoy the open floor concept with family and friends. This beauty offers an additional room/study with beautiful well detail barn door(s). Every room in this home is spacious with walk-in closet in most rooms. The home offers various setting areas for family and friends and even pets; including a media/game room upstairs. The backyard is the perfect size for family pet fun. It even offers a covered patio with a built-in bar-b-que for that inspired home chef. If that is not enough how about NEW fresh paint and carpet throughout the home. Come out and call this home. Call for your private tour. (Motivated Seller)

10. 2020-12-11
    price $200,000 735-char remark

    Show marketing remark (735 chars)

    Welcome, Home! This gorgeous two-story 4 bedroom, 2 bath home is one you want to come and see for yourself. Come and enjoy the open floor concept with family and friends. This beauty offers an additional room/study with beautiful well detail barn door(s). Every room in this home is spacious with walk-in closet in most rooms. The home offers various setting areas for family and friends and even pets; including a media/game room upstairs. The backyard is the perfect size for family pet fun. It even offers a covered patio with a built-in bar-b-que for that inspired home chef. If that is not enough how about NEW fresh paint and carpet throughout the home. Come out and call this home. Call for your private tour. (Motivated Seller)

11. 2020-12-04
    price $205,000 735-char remark

    Show marketing remark (735 chars)

    Welcome, Home! This gorgeous two-story 4 bedroom, 2 bath home is one you want to come and see for yourself. Come and enjoy the open floor concept with family and friends. This beauty offers an additional room/study with beautiful well detail barn door(s). Every room in this home is spacious with walk-in closet in most rooms. The home offers various setting areas for family and friends and even pets; including a media/game room upstairs. The backyard is the perfect size for family pet fun. It even offers a covered patio with a built-in bar-b-que for that inspired home chef. If that is not enough how about NEW fresh paint and carpet throughout the home. Come out and call this home. Call for your private tour. (Motivated Seller)

12. 2020-11-16
    listed $215,000 Active 735-char remark

    Show marketing remark (735 chars)

    Welcome, Home! This gorgeous two-story 4 bedroom, 2 bath home is one you want to come and see for yourself. Come and enjoy the open floor concept with family and friends. This beauty offers an additional room/study with beautiful well detail barn door(s). Every room in this home is spacious with walk-in closet in most rooms. The home offers various setting areas for family and friends and even pets; including a media/game room upstairs. The backyard is the perfect size for family pet fun. It even offers a covered patio with a built-in bar-b-que for that inspired home chef. If that is not enough how about NEW fresh paint and carpet throughout the home. Come out and call this home. Call for your private tour. (Motivated Seller)

13. 2010-06-02
    soldstatus
14. 2010-02-26
    historical
15. 2009-12-04
    listed $83,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,606 · $550/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,606 · $550/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 50% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,796
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$6,606
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,144
• − Management: −$2,144
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$5,707
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,370
• After-tax cash flow: $-468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sheldon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,443
• Composite: 19.5/100
• National rank: #8772
• State rank: #746 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+182.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $244,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2021-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-01-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-12-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-12-11 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2020-12-04 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2020-11-16 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2010-06-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-02-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-12-04 Listed $83,200 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,606 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.