75 Birch Rd · Southold, NY 11971

$1,299,999

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,584 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Built 2022 0.25 ac lot $503/sqft · at area comps Est $1355k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Build Your Dream Home On This Beautiful Country Corner Lot On Quiet Street. Proximity To Kenney's Beach.

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Landscaped property
• Quartz countertops

Tags

• LANDSCAPED PROPERTY
• FRONT PORCH
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• CUSTOM CABINETRY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected (PSEG); Water connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Actual property condition
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Garden; Landscaped grounds; Private lot; Patio; Porch; Front-yard fencing; Irrigation equipment; Has spa

Interior

• Kitchen: Chef's kitchen with island; Breakfast bar; Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8 (includes bedrooms and additional rooms)
• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating with propane; Central air conditioning; Gas fireplace (1)
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Breakfast bar; Chef's kitchen; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Open floor plan; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Master bedroom on main level; Walk-through kitchen; Walk-in closets; Home office; Full basement; Partial attic
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.30M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($27k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.29M (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.26M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 6.9% in Southold — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southold Union Free School District (town): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #298 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Southold Elementary School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 317 students, 35% FRL); Southold Junior-Senior High School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 380 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 17% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $39k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.26M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $210k; list at $1.30M implies a 519% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,260,999 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.40%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,355,431
• List price: $1,299,999
• Delta: -4.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
380 Hickory Rd	0.15mi	4/2.5	2,600 (+1%)	7mo	$1,055,000	$406	82
12250 Soundview Ave	0.48mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,400 (-7%)	2mo	$1,300,000	$542	60
670 Kenneys Rd	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,417 (-6%)	15mo	$1,900,000	$786	56
2045 Lake Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,300 (-11%)	22mo	$1,325,000	$576	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-68,035
• Equity at exit: $193,834

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $123,225
• Equity at exit: $112,400

Cash invested: $364,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11971

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,939 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,817
• Tax from tax record: −$617 /mo · $7,404/yr
• Insurance: −$542
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,717
• Net cashflow: $2,246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,096

Max offer price $1,299,999

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $325,000
• Closing costs: $39,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
485 Pine Rd Southold, NY	3.0	2.5	2000	$12,000	$6.00	43d	1	0.16mi
270 N Sea Dr Southold, NY	4.0	3.0	1800	$22,500	$12.50	43d	1	0.29mi
6710 Soundview Ave Southold, NY	4.0	2.0	2000	$4,900	$2.45	43d	1	0.60mi
3400 Youngs Ave Southold, NY	4.0	2.0	2000	$7,500	$3.75	43d	1	1.00mi
590 Soundview Avenue Ext Southold, NY	4.0	4.5	3100	$27,000	$8.71	43d	1	1.13mi
275 Maier Pl Southold, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$10,000	$5.00	43d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,299,999 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,299,999 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,299,999 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,299,999 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,299,999 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1,299,999 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,299,999 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,299,999 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,299,999 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,299,999 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,299,999 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $1,299,999 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,399,999 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,399,999 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-04-21
    listed $1,399,999 Active 2505-char remark
16. 2021-03-11
    soldstatus $210,000
17. 2021-02-22
    soldstatus $210,000 Closed 107-char remark

    Show marketing remark (107 chars)

    Build Your Dream Home On This Beautiful Country Corner Lot On Quiet Street. Proximity To Kenney's Beach.

18. 2020-07-16
    status Active 107-char remark

    Show marketing remark (107 chars)

    Build Your Dream Home On This Beautiful Country Corner Lot On Quiet Street. Proximity To Kenney's Beach.

19. 2020-07-15
    historical 107-char remark

    Show marketing remark (107 chars)

    Build Your Dream Home On This Beautiful Country Corner Lot On Quiet Street. Proximity To Kenney's Beach.

20. 2019-01-22
    listed $259,000 New 107-char remark

    Show marketing remark (107 chars)

    Build Your Dream Home On This Beautiful Country Corner Lot On Quiet Street. Proximity To Kenney's Beach.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,404 · $617/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,687 · $1,224/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,283/yr (+$607/mo · 98.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $155,269
• − Mortgage interest: −$72,820
• − Property taxes: −$7,404
• − Insurance: −$6,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,422
• − Management: −$12,422
• − Depreciation: −$37,818
• Taxable income: $5,884
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,412
• After-tax cash flow: $25,539/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southold Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627620
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $78,622
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2269
• State rank: #298 of 590 in NY

Livability — Southold

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #10545

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southold, NY
• City population: 6,507
• Population (ZIP): 6,507

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.14%
• Current HPI: 396.5481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+401.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $1,299,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listed $1,399,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2021-02-22 Sold (MLS) $210,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-16 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-15 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-22 Listed $259,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+17.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,404 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.