609 Third St · Paintsville, KY 41240

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,414 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1940 0.32 ac lot $88/sqft · at area comps Est $142k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home is Tenant occupied, please allow 24-48 hours for showings. Bank owned property being sold in as-is condition.

Key facts

• Huge laundry area
• Large living room
• Bonus area

Tags

• BONUS AREA
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• HUGE LAUNDRY AREA
• PAINTSVILLE SCHOOL DISTRICT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Metal roof; 0.32-acre lot; Residential zoning

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Cooktop
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Electric heating
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Refrigerator; Cooktop

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $94 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $104k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.2% in Paintsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#117 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Paintsville Independent (town): math 27% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #57 of 165 in KY (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $125k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,186 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.23%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,031
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -11.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
232 Mill Br	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,594 (+13%)	0mo	$165,000	$104	54
513 Washington Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (-8%)	7mo	$135,000	$104	50
245 Fifth	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,546 (+9%)	12mo	$185,000	$120	49
509 William Henry Dixon Blvd	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+11%)	4mo	$158,000	$101	43
439 Margaret Hts	0.45mi	2/1.5	1,224 (-13%)	17mo	$58,000	$47	41
312 Highland Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-5%)	12mo	$160,000	$119	39
608 Blevins Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,556 (+10%)	15mo	$180,000	$116	33
247 Preston St	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,310 (-7%)	22mo	$81,000	$62	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $28,188
• Equity at exit: $63,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $83,369
• Equity at exit: $104,827

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41240

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,042 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $254/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $923

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $125,000 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $128,500 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $128,500 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $128,500 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $128,500 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-05-16
   listed $128,500 Active 410-char remark
8. 2022-02-11
   soldstatus $52,000 114-char remark

   Show marketing remark (114 chars)

   Home is Tenant occupied, please allow 24-48 hours for showings. Bank owned property being sold in as-is condition.

9. 2019-11-22
   listed $59,900 114-char remark

   Show marketing remark (114 chars)

   Home is Tenant occupied, please allow 24-48 hours for showings. Bank owned property being sold in as-is condition.

10. 2007-02-23
    soldstatus $56,000
11. 2001-01-22
    soldstatus $25,000
12. 1989-08-01
    soldstatus $27,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $254 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,075 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$821/yr (+$68/mo · 322.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,502
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$254
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,000
• − Management: −$1,000
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,016
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$244
• After-tax cash flow: $1,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paintsville Independent
• NCES district ID: 2104680
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -22.00%
• Median HH income: $36,384
• Composite: 30.63/100
• National rank: #6186
• State rank: #57 of 165 in KY

Livability — Paintsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #5546

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paintsville, KY
• City population: 6,495
• Population (ZIP): 6,495

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,330 people
• By 2030: 21,570 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 19,849 · -11.1%
• By 2050: 18,204 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 14,588 · -34.7%
• By 2100: 11,127 · -50.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Asian 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.7) · D 14.0% · R 84.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.1pp toward R · 2008: -41.6pp · 2024: -70.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.7 2020: R+67.1 2016: R+71.0 2012: R+59.5 2008: R+41.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.07%
• Current HPI: 186.4342
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+351.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Pending — EKAR
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $125,000 EKAR
• 2026-05-16 Listed $128,500 EKAR
• 2022-02-11 Sold (MLS) $52,000 EKAR
• 2019-11-22 Listed $59,900 EKAR
• 2007-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 2001-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1989-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $27,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $254 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.