1500 John Rd · Dundarrach, NC 28386

$110,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,174 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1973 ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This one is all about potential. Sitting on a full acre, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers over 1,800 sq. ft. of space with a layout that could easily be reworked to add additional bedrooms or living areas. There’s also an enclosed garage with an extra 321 sq. ft. , giving you even more flexibility for expansion, storage, or creative use. The bones are here, the space is here, and the opportunity is clear. Whether you’re an investor looking for your next project or someone ready to roll up their sleeves and add value, this property offers room to reimagine and customize. With land, square footage, and multiple layout options, this is a solid canvas for the right vision. Come ta

Key facts

• Built 1973
• Listed 71 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Water from spring and well; Sewer via holding tank and septic tank
• Home design: Residential single-family home
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior
• Exterior features: Deck; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Range; Refrigerator; No fireplace; 7 total rooms; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#477 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hoke County Schools (suburban): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #123 of 178 in NC (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 685 units permitted in Hoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Hoke County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.31%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $21,912
• Equity at exit: $49,461

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $65,828
• Equity at exit: $76,225

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28386

• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,061 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $953/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $889

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   status Active
3. 2026-04-22
   price $110,000
4. 2026-04-05
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-09
   listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $953 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $953 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,735
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$953
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,019
• − Management: −$1,019
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$167
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$40
• After-tax cash flow: $1,676/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hoke County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,896
• Composite: 31.82/100
• National rank: #5880
• State rank: #123 of 178 in NC

Livability — Dundarrach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #477
• US rank: #17452

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,246

Population outlook (Hoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,354 people
• By 2030: 68,361 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 78,074 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 86,384 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 99,517 · +57.1%
• By 2100: 98,939 · +56.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.90)
• Race & ethnicity: Native American 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% White 9% Two or more races 8% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Hoke

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 18.8pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+10.8 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $110,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-04-05 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $120,000 LPRMLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $953 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.