279 Niagara St · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$199,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,816 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1920 6,594 sqft lot $110/sqft · 31% below area Est $288k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Location Location Location!! Great opportunity - Multi-family located across from Niawanda Park. This 2 Unit features a lower 2Bed/1Bath and an updated 1Bed/1Bath upper. Mechanical updates include 2 Furnaces and Electrical Boxes (2024). City of Tonawanda required sump pump will be installed and inspected prior to closing. This unique, across the river property has a double lot and a 3 car garage. The possibilities are endless! Showings begin at the Open House on Wednesday, May 13th 5-7. Negotiations will begin on Tues. May 19th at 5:00 pm.

Key facts

• Double lot
• 3 car garage
• 6,594 sq ft lot

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• 3 CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Multi-unit property with 2 total units; Separate gas meters for each unit; Separate electric meters for each unit; Rectangular lot with approximately 63 x 104 dimensions; Main thoroughfare road frontage
• Financial info: Owner pays trash collection; Rent includes trash collection; Operating expenses: see remarks

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage; Paved parking; Two or more parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; High-speed internet available
• Home design: 2-story building; Existing construction
• Construction: Shake siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Resale property
• Exterior features: Private yard; Patio; Partial fencing; Fence; Patio (listed separately in features); See remarks

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Natural woodwork; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive. Per door: $936/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $199k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,068/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1427% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $199k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $199,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.30%
• DSCR: 2.79
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $287,530
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -30.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $102,896
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.63×
• Total profit: $313,832
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,068 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,593/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$854
• Net cashflow: $1,871

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,699

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,984	-5% $1,927	+0% $1,871	+5% $1,815	+10% $1,759
Rent	-10% $1,550	-5% $1,710	+0% $1,871	+5% $2,032	+10% $2,193
Rate	-1.0pp $1,971	-0.5pp $1,922	base $1,871	+0.5pp $1,820	+1.0pp $1,767

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$4,068
Total (2 units)			$4,068

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 Highland Ave Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	2288	$1,800	$0.79	4d	1	1.09mi
46 Eagleview Dr Grand Island, NY	4.0	2.5	2472	$4,200	$1.70	2d	1	1.28mi
600 River Rd North Tonawanda, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1320	$4,995	$3.78	2d	12	1.34mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-11
   listed $199,000 Active 546-char remark
2. 1995-06-30
   soldstatus $83,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,593 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,978 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: +$385/yr (+$32/mo · 14.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,593
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,905
• − Management: −$3,905
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $20,481
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,916
• After-tax cash flow: $17,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+139.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $199,000 WNYREIS
• 1995-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,593 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.