1500 Held Dr #29 · Modesto, CA 95355

$95,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 105 Days on market

Built 1998 Est $116k · 18% under $915/mo HOA · 41% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Unit #29 at The Grove is a beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath home located in one of Modesto's premier 55+ gated mobile home communities. Offering 1,456 sq ft of comfortable living space, this well-cared-for residence blends convenience with privacy. The home features an inviting kitchen with ample storage and natural light, as well as a spacious living area and a tastefully tucked-away, side-by-side laundry setup. Enjoy the entirety of your property by stepping out onto the covered porch, or spend some time in your private, low-maintenance outdoor space. Residents of The Grove enjoy an active and lively community atmosphere along with exceptional amenities, including a seasonally hea

Key facts

• Inviting kitchen
• Stone fruit orchard
• Community clubhouse

Tags

• INVITING KITCHEN
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR SPACE
• SEASONALLY HEATED POOL
• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE
• STONE FRUIT ORCHARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a senior community
• Financial info: Association fee $915 monthly; Land lease: listed as No (land lease amount field present separately)
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Monthly association fee; Association fee includes water and security; Community amenities: activities, BBQ area, pool, clubhouse, RV storage, guest parking

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking
• Security: Community security included in association fees
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double wide; Built in 1998
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Composition roofing
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Auto sprinkler front and rear; Cul-de-sac location; Landscaped front

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Hood over range; Free standing electric oven; Free standing refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Plumbed for ice maker; Pantry cabinet
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (possible use as 3rd bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Skylight or solar tube; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Pantry cabinet; Formal dining area; Living room with unspecified feature; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included; Laundry inside unit; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $190 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Empire Union Elementary (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #398 of 517 in CA (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 222 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 41% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.55%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $116,480
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1500 Held Dr #119	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-1%)	2mo	$87,000	$60	92
1500 Held	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,529 (+5%)	3mo	$95,000	$62	89
1500 Held Dr #84	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,529 (+5%)	3mo	$95,000	$62	85
1500 Held Dr #5	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,507 (+4%)	11mo	$129,000	$86	85
1500 Held #99	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	6mo	$107,000	$80	78
1500 Held Dr #81	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,323 (-9%)	8mo	$50,000	$38	73
1500 Held Dr #7	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-8%)	11mo	$80,000	$60	73
1428 Playground Way	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-8%)	3mo	$160,000	$119	72
1528 Playground Way #125	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,584 (+9%)	6mo	$110,000	$69	71
1544 Playground Way	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-8%)	9mo	$140,000	$104	70
1500 Held Dr #135	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-14%)	8mo	$100,000	$80	66
1517 Panthers Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-14%)	11mo	$111,000	$89	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-6,517
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-2,741
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95355

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$915
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,989

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $255	-5% $222	+0% $190	+5% $157	+10% $124
Rent	-10% $13	-5% $102	+0% $190	+5% $278	+10% $366
Rate	-1.0pp $237	-0.5pp $214	base $190	+0.5pp $165	+1.0pp $140

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1108 Cedar Creek Dr #1 Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,999	$1.88	14d	1	0.91mi
757 Waddell Way Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,700	$1.54	14d	1	1.31mi
1217 Kara Ln Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1559	$2,395	$1.54	24d	1	1.35mi
1500 Lakewood Ave Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$1,900	$2.32	14d	7	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $915 · $10,980/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   price $95,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,999 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,999 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,999 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,999 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,999 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,999 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,999 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,999 Active 86 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 36 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,140
• − Management: −$2,140
• − HOA: −$10,980
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $1,506
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$361
• After-tax cash flow: $1,914/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Empire Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0612690
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,808
• Composite: 22.05/100
• National rank: #8193
• State rank: #398 of 517 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 60,710
• Household income: $86,849
• Rent vs Own: 37.7% rent · 62.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2521.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Asian 8% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -458.02%
• Current HPI: 277.8565
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B