153 Kelly Dr · Slidell, LA 70458

$239,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,467 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1978 $163/sqft · 9% above area Est $231k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFUL UPDATED HOME IN A GREAT LOCATION OF SLIDELL, 3 BEDS 2 BATHS , NICE FOYER ENTRANCE, LARGE DEN WITH CATHEDRAL CEILINGS AND WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE , UPDATED KITCHEN WITH BUILT IN MUDROOM NICHE, GRANITE AND STAINLESS APPLIANCES, LARGE EAT IN KTCHEN /BREAKFAST AREA, PRIMARY BEDROOM LARGE FOR KING BED , WALK IN CLOSET, OVERLOOKS NICE PATIO, LARGE FENCED YARD AND GARAGE! LOTS OF AMENITIES IN THIS PRICE POINT!

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1978
• Listed 72 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($496/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#57 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 489 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,568 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.74%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,892
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: 3.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 Leonell Cir	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+2%)	2mo	$233,500	$156	78
105 Heather Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-1%)	0mo	$125,000	$86	76
131 Kelly Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,576 (+7%)	11mo	$135,000	$86	74
151 Defiance Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,539 (+5%)	7mo	$230,000	$149	71
146 Bluefield Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+6%)	10mo	$254,000	$163	69
653 Fairfield Loop	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-1%)	8mo	$255,000	$176	67
109 Meredith Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+12%)	13mo	$125,000	$76	60
357 Mansfield Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,378 (-6%)	14mo	$180,000	$131	59
170 Timbers Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-5%)	6mo	$160,000	$114	55
555 Lenwood Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,661 (+13%)	4mo	$200,000	$120	49
620 Fairfield Loop	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,614 (+10%)	12mo	$298,000	$185	44
120 Pine Cir	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,660 (+13%)	3mo	$216,800	$131	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-39,061
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-42,433
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70458

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 489
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,896 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,240/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,843

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Meredith Dr Slidell, LA	3.0	2.0	1531	$1,650	$1.08	43d	1	0.19mi
107 Dixie Cir Slidell, LA	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,900	$1.18	43d	1	0.38mi
108 Ellwood Cir Slidell, LA	4.0	2.0	1517	$1,800	$1.19	3d	1	0.40mi
357 Mansfield Dr Slidell, LA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,200	$1.57	43d	1	0.42mi
641 Haaswood Ln Slidell, LA	3.0	2.0	1721	$2,400	$1.39	43d	1	0.47mi
557 Claiborne Trails Dr Slidell, LA	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,300	$1.36	43d	1	0.52mi
100 Firwood Dr Slidell, LA	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,900	$1.15	43d	1	0.79mi
117 S Queens Dr Slidell, LA	4.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	3d	1	1.12mi
250 Brownswitch Rd Apt 193 Slidell, LA	2.0	1.5	1025	$1,195	$1.17	10d	1	1.14mi
4145 Saint Peter St Slidell, LA	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,000	$1.41	43d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-04-07
    listed $239,000 Active 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL UPDATED HOME IN A GREAT LOCATION OF SLIDELL, 3 BEDS 2 BATHS ,NICE FOYER ENTRANCE, LARGE DEN WITH CATHEDRAL CEILINGS AND WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE , UPDATED KITCHEN WITH BUILT IN MUDROOM NICHE, GRANITE AND STAINLESS APPLIANCES,LARGE EAT IN KTCHEN /BREAKFAST AREA, PRIMARY BEDROOM LARGE FOR KING BED , WALK IN CLOSET, OVERLOOKS NICE PATIO,LARGE FENCED YARD AND GARAGE! LOTS OF AMENITIES IN THIS PRICE POINT!

15. 2026-04-07
    listed $239,000 Active 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL UPDATED HOME IN A GREAT LOCATION OF SLIDELL, 3 BEDS 2 BATHS ,NICE FOYER ENTRANCE, LARGE DEN WITH CATHEDRAL CEILINGS AND WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE , UPDATED KITCHEN WITH BUILT IN MUDROOM NICHE, GRANITE AND STAINLESS APPLIANCES,LARGE EAT IN KTCHEN /BREAKFAST AREA, PRIMARY BEDROOM LARGE FOR KING BED , WALK IN CLOSET, OVERLOOKS NICE PATIO,LARGE FENCED YARD AND GARAGE! LOTS OF AMENITIES IN THIS PRICE POINT!

16. 2022-08-22
    soldstatus $222,000
17. 2022-08-19
    soldstatus $222,000 Closed
18. 2022-07-07
    status Pending
19. 2022-06-30
    price $245,900
20. 2022-06-15
    listed $245,900
21. 2022-06-15
    listed $249,900 Active
22. 2012-12-27
    soldstatus $142,000
23. 1999-01-08
    soldstatus $90,500
24. 1998-09-02
    listed $91,000
25. 1998-09-02
    listed $91,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,240 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,314 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$75/yr (+$6/mo · 6.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$1,240
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,820
• − Management: −$1,820
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$3,667
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$880
• After-tax cash flow: $1,376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Tammany Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201650
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -26.00%
• Median HH income: $61,752
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3098
• State rank: #11 of 98 in LA

Livability — Slidell

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #7673

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Tammany Parish · 228,296 people
• City population: 95,511
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 39,034
• Household income: $72,843
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1331.0

Population outlook (St. Tammany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,725 people
• By 2030: 304,175 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 336,203 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 364,590 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 433,362 · +51.1%
• By 2100: 470,333 · +64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Tammany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.3% · R 71.1% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+44.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.60%
• Current HPI: 147.4749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.47%
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+162.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $239,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $239,000 GSREIN
• 2022-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $222,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-19 Sold (MLS) $222,000 GSREIN
• 2022-07-07 Pending — GSREIN
• 2022-06-30 Price Changed $245,900 GSREIN
• 2022-06-15 Listed $249,900 GSREIN
• 2022-06-15 Listed $245,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2012-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $142,000 Public Records
• 1999-01-08 Sold (MLS) $90,500 GSREIN
• 1998-09-02 Listed $91,000 GSREIN
• 1998-09-02 Listed $91,000 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

-4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,240 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.