163 Kinsley Rd · Pemberton, NJ 08068

$169,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 690 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1952 5,998 sqft lot $246/sqft · 5% above area Est $162k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Fully remodeled throughout, this charming ranch blends modern finishes, functional living, and unbeatable affordability. Welcome to 163 Kinsley Road, nestled in the growing community of Pemberton Township. This beautifully renovated 2-bedroom ranch has been completely updated from top to bottom, offering a clean, modern feel paired with everyday comfort. Step inside to a thoughtfully designed interior featuring cohesive finishes and a bright, refreshed living space that’s truly move-in ready. Outside, enjoy a multi-car driveway, storage shed, and a spacious backyard situated on a generously sized lot—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or future expansion. With low taxes, no HOA

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Remodeled ranch
• Generously sized lot

Tags

• REMODELED RANCH
• UPDATED INTERIOR
• MULTI-CAR DRIVEWAY
• STORAGE SHED
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• GENEROUSLY SIZED LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer
• Home design: Semi-detached property; Fee simple ownership; Year built (estimated)
• Construction: Frame construction; Slab foundation; Above grade and below grade structures
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 50 x 120 (estimated); No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: 90% forced air heating; Natural gas heating; Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Estimated living area; Two or more access exits; No stairs (single-level access)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $302 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.9% in Pemberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#217 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Pemberton Township School District (rural): math 12% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #382 of 472 in NJ (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $170k implies a 844% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.63%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,696
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: 5.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
147 Lemmon Ave	0.11mi	2/1.0	690 (0%)	1mo	$177,000	$257	94
912 Pemberton Browns Mills Rd	0.03mi	2/1.0	690 (0%)	6mo	$187,500	$272	93
914 Pemberton Browns Mills Rd	0.04mi	2/1.0	690 (0%)	6mo	$187,500	$272	93
142 Kinsley Rd	0.10mi	2/1.0	690 (0%)	13mo	$134,000	$194	84
199 Kinsley Rd	0.19mi	2/1.0	705 (+2%)	9mo	$164,900	$234	80
128 Lemmon Ave	0.22mi	2/1.0	690 (0%)	13mo	$165,000	$239	79
132 Lemmon Ave	0.19mi	2/1.0	705 (+2%)	10mo	$173,000	$245	79
217 Kinsley Rd	0.27mi	2/1.0	690 (0%)	10mo	$175,000	$254	78
112 Kinsley	0.27mi	2/1.0	710 (+3%)	6mo	$175,000	$246	77
220 Norcross Ln	0.29mi	2/1.0	690 (0%)	21mo	$140,000	$203	69
123 Jane St	0.61mi	2/1.0	672 (-3%)	17mo	$235,000	$350	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-8,283
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $17,537
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08068

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,787 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,770/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,404

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
118 Lemmon Ave Pemberton, NJ	2.0	1.0	705	$1,700	$2.41	1d	1	0.25mi
219 Kinsley Rd Pemberton, NJ	2.0	1.0	690	$2,000	$2.90	1d	1	0.30mi
224 Swarthmore Ct Pemberton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	1d	2	1.11mi
198 W Hampton St Pemberton, NJ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,838	$2.45	1d	2	1.28mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,900 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $169,900 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    listed $174,900 Active 1261-char remark
17. 2026-03-09
    historical
18. 2026-02-02
    listed $145,000 Active
19. 1987-06-17
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,770 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,000 · $250/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,230/yr (+$103/mo · 69.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,770
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,715
• − Management: −$1,715
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $933
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$224
• After-tax cash flow: $3,405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pemberton Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3412810
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,951
• Composite: 23.0/100
• National rank: #7979
• State rank: #382 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Pemberton

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #6053

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,811

Population outlook (Burlington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 453,425 people
• By 2030: 452,359 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 445,033 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 431,760 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 406,277 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 364,732 · -19.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burlington

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.6% · R 41.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+19.5 2016: D+14.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.80%
• Current HPI: 315.5986
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+843.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $169,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $174,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1987-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,770 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.