12292 Jerries Ln · Black Jack, MO 63033

$179,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,204 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 261 Days on market

Built 1971 0.26 ac lot Est $183k · at est. $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on Market - Lost Our Financing. This should be your next home!! Beautiful split foyer with 4 beds/2.5 baths, spacious living room, separate dining room, large master bedroom w/bath on upper level. Huge deck and large yard. LL has additional room for office or sleeping & 20 x 23 family room w/woodburning fireplace. 2 Car attached garage. This is a great buy & a must see!!

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1971

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 6.2% in Black Jack — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jamestown Elem. (math 2% / reading 37%, grade F, #935 of 1,115 statewide, top 84%, 333 students, 66% FRL); Central Middle (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #348 of 391 statewide, top 89%, 707 students, 68% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 261 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 261 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.47%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $183,008
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12512 Early Morning Dr	0.40mi	4/3.0	1,218 (+1%)	3mo	$220,000	$181	74
12178 El Camara Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (-5%)	4mo	$204,900	$179	67
6250 Pennyrich Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,186 (-2%)	2mo	$149,000	$126	66
5012 Trailbend Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,268 (+5%)	1mo	$179,000	$141	63
12166 La Padera Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,136 (-6%)	2mo	$200,000	$176	62
12113 La Padera Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (-5%)	4mo	$149,000	$130	60
6363 Coventry Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,186 (-2%)	8mo	$168,000	$142	60
12095 El Camara Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,088 (-10%)	0mo	$154,900	$142	59
12705 Stubwood Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,179 (-2%)	7mo	$265,000	$225	53
11955 Red Barn Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-7%)	5mo	$169,900	$152	50
12136 La Padera Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,060 (-12%)	4mo	$165,000	$156	50
11922 La Padera Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,374 (+14%)	8mo	$154,900	$113	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $120,953
• Equity at exit: $161,257

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.31×
• Total profit: $366,367
• Equity at exit: $347,758

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,870 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,728/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,581

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $330	-5% $279	+0% $229	+5% $178	+10% $127
Rent	-10% $81	-5% $155	+0% $229	+5% $302	+10% $376
Rate	-1.0pp $319	-0.5pp $274	base $229	+0.5pp $182	+1.0pp $135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11592 Las Ladera Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	986	$1,616	$1.64	9d	1	1.00mi
12810 Verwood Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,026	$1.44	45d	1	1.15mi
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	4d	1	1.23mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,364	$1.11	0d	18	1.27mi
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	19d	1	1.30mi
11969 Continental Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	1.5	1075	$1,325	$1.23	0d	4	1.32mi
11321 Amboy Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1182	$1,711	$1.45	0d	1	1.40mi
1911 Redman Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1454	$1,495	$1.03	4d	1	1.40mi
6431 Brown Fox Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1105	$1,905	$1.72	24d	1	1.44mi
12887 Fox Haven Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1135	$1,750	$1.54	45d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   status Active
3. 2026-03-18
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-27
   price $179,000
5. 2026-01-30
   price $181,000
6. 2026-01-13
   status Active
7. 2025-12-05
   price $185,000
8. 2025-11-14
   price $191,000
9. 2025-10-03
   price $195,000
10. 2025-09-19
    price $197,000
11. 2025-09-18
    status Active
12. 2025-09-11
    status Pending
13. 2025-08-29
    price $199,000
14. 2025-07-18
    price $203,000
15. 2025-07-02
    price $209,000
16. 2025-06-20
    price $218,000
17. 2025-06-05
    listed $230,000 Active
18. 2025-05-15
    historical $1,890
19. 2025-05-02
    price $1,890
20. 2025-05-01
    historical $1,960
21. 2025-04-25
    price $1,960
22. 2025-04-24
    price $1,960
23. 2025-04-04
    price $1,985
24. 2025-04-03
    price $1,985
25. 2025-03-09
    listed $2,035
26. 2025-03-07
    listed $2,035
27. 2015-09-01
    soldstatus $15,382,732
28. 2013-07-25
    soldstatus $75,000
29. 2013-07-19
    soldstatus 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Back on Market - Lost Our Financing. This should be your next home!! Beautiful split foyer with 4 beds/2.5 baths, spacious living room, separate dining room, large master bedroom w/bath on upper level. Huge deck and large yard. LL has additional room for office or sleeping & 20 x 23 family room w/woodburning fireplace. 2 Car attached garage. This is a great buy & a must see!!

30. 2013-02-12
    listed $91,500 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Back on Market - Lost Our Financing. This should be your next home!! Beautiful split foyer with 4 beds/2.5 baths, spacious living room, separate dining room, large master bedroom w/bath on upper level. Huge deck and large yard. LL has additional room for office or sleeping & 20 x 23 family room w/woodburning fireplace. 2 Car attached garage. This is a great buy & a must see!!

31. 1986-03-03
    soldstatus
32. 1986-02-01
    soldstatus $68,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,728 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,728 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,439
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,728
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,795
• − Management: −$1,795
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$105
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$25
• After-tax cash flow: $2,768/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Black Jack, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 42,258
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+161.3% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $179,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $181,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $185,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $191,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $195,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $197,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-18 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-11 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $199,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $203,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $209,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $218,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-05 Listed $230,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-15 Rental Removed $1,890 RENTLY
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $1,890 RENTLY
• 2025-05-01 Rental Removed $1,960 RENT.
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $1,960 RENTLY
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $1,960 RENT.
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $1,985 RENTLY
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $1,985 RENT.
• 2025-03-09 Listed for Rent $2,035 RENTLY
• 2025-03-07 Listed for Rent $2,035 RENT.
• 2015-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,382,732 Public Records
• 2013-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2013-07-19 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-12 Listed $91,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1986-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $68,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,728 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.