214 Chapman Rd #8 · Castle Rock, WA 98611

$79,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1991

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Doublewide for sale at Edgewater Estates (55+): 3 bed / 2 bath at 960 sq. ft. This home is wonderfully located and full of potential! Featuring a large covered front patio/deck, a carport for covered off-street parking, a large lot with beautiful landscaping, two large storage sheds, and an open layout inside the home which is ready with W/ D hookups. All appliances are included with the home. Edgewater Estates features a community recroom with plenty of seating and a media area, a massive field to enjoy various outdoor recreational activities including a walking path that leads right up to the Cowlitz River! Come make it yours!

Key facts

• Community recroom
• Large lot
• Open layout

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PATIO
• CARPORT FOR COVERED PARKING
• LARGE LOT
• TWO LARGE STORAGE SHEDS
• OPEN LAYOUT
• COMMUNITY RECROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property condition listed as fair
• Financial info: Land lease amount: $735; Cash listing terms
• HOA & community: Located in a senior community (Edgewater Estates); Land lease applies

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Electric power
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Built after 6/15/1976; One level; Manufactured house structure type
• Construction: Fleetwood make; Double wide body type; Mobile home remains
• Exterior features: Located in Edgewater Estates (manufactured home park); Community clubhouse; Community waterfront; Recreational area; Patio/porch/deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances listed in remarks
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath; 1 bathtub; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Electric energy source
• Interior features: Bath off primary; Landscaped; Patio/porch/deck
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer or utility details listed in remarks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $667 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 2.2% in Castle Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#209 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Castle Rock School District (town): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #174 of 291 in WA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 348 units permitted in Cowlitz County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cowlitz County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $80k implies a 284% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.37%
• DSCR: 2.75
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $22,080
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8021 Old Pacific Hwy N #11	0.67mi	2/1.0	864 (-10%)	8mo	$20,000	$23	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $29,604
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.61×
• Total profit: $80,674
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98611

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,573 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $676/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $667

Break-even live

Break-even rent $728

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $79,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,900 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $104,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   remarks 637-char remark
9. 2026-06-13
   listed $104,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $676 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $783 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$107/yr (+$9/mo · 15.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$676
• − Insurance: −$1,197
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,510
• − Management: −$1,510
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $7,182
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,724
• After-tax cash flow: $6,286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Castle Rock School District
• NCES district ID: 5300990
• Math proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $51,823
• Composite: 41.78/100
• National rank: #7162
• State rank: #174 of 291 in WA

Livability — Castle Rock

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #209
• US rank: #5888

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,367

Population outlook (Cowlitz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 104,780 people
• By 2030: 103,980 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 100,769 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 96,685 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 86,454 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 74,052 · -29.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Italian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cowlitz

• 2024 margin: R (+19.9) · D 38.7% · R 58.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: 11.2pp · 2024: -19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.9 2020: R+17.4 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.17%
• Current HPI: 261.3765
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+404.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $104,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $20,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+50.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $676 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.