20 Hideaway Trl · Cape Royale, TX 77331

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,236 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1988 10,497 sqft lot $101/sqft · 34% below area Est $190k · 34% under $9/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is ready for someone with vision to bring it back to life. Whether you're looking to renovate, customize or create a weekend retreat, this one story property offers plenty of potential. The standout feature is the oversized detached garage, offering ample space for vehicles, storage or a workshop - ideal for hobbyists or those needing extra room. A separate storage shed adds even more functionality, while the multiple porches offer plenty of space to relax and take in the surroundings. Conveniently located near the community pool and pavilion, with the added benefit of a private community boat ramp for easy access to the lake. Home is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Multiple porches
• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OVERSIZED DETACHED GARAGE
• SEPARATE STORAGE SHED
• MULTIPLE PORCHES
• PRIVATE COMMUNITY BOAT RAMP

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Holiday Shores POA with an annual fee of $110; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Detached oversized garage; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first-floor living areas)
• Construction: Wood siding; Built in 1988; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Private yard; Porch with screened area

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Two first-floor bedrooms (approx. 12x10 and 12x12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window heating unit; Window cooling unit
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $415 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 2.5% in Cape Royale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,203 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Street El (449 students, 70% FRL); Lincoln J H (math 14% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 347 students, 58% FRL); Coldspring-Oakhurst H S (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 496 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 364 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.23%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,900
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -34.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $6,199
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $39,516
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77331

• Active inventory: 364
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,609 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,677/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$9
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,084

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $486	-5% $450	+0% $415	+5% $380	+10% $344
Rent	-10% $288	-5% $351	+0% $415	+5% $479	+10% $542
Rate	-1.0pp $478	-0.5pp $447	base $415	+0.5pp $383	+1.0pp $350

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $9 · $108/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $125,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $125,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 31 DOM
18. 2026-04-29
    listed $135,000 Active 688-char remark
19. 2002-01-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,677 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$610/yr (+$51/mo · 36.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,677
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,545
• − Management: −$1,545
• − HOA: −$108
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $3,174
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$762
• After-tax cash flow: $4,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD
• NCES district ID: 4814520
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,916
• Composite: 20.07/100
• National rank: #8653
• State rank: #732 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cape Royale

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1203
• US rank: #21032

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,348

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.98%
• Current HPI: 199.0493
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2002-01-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,677 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.