912 Garfield Ave · Bay City, MI 48708

$54,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,609 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1917 4,792 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Roof: 2015 * Countertops: Original to the home * Flooring: Hardwood in most of the home needs to be replaced. * Kitchen / Bathrooms: Cabinets are good condition. Countertops are in mid condition as they have a bunch of scratches. The flooring also needs work in the kitchen area. * AC/Furnace: Window units and furnace are 5 years old. * Countertops and Cabinets: Original to the build. * Windows: Installed in 2008 * Siding: Has plywood in the front on the side by the driveway. * Railing: Loose and needs work. * Basement: Floods when it rains hard, but sump pump takes care of it. This has been happing for about 4 years.

Key facts

• 4,792 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1917

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Other sewer service
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Constructed with other materials
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.11 acres; Lot dimensions: 4,792

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 3 rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Floor furnace heating; No central air conditioning
• Interior features: Basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $54k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $786 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $54k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.8% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $373 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $53,190 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.37%
• DSCR: 3.77
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $149,637
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
414 S Monroe St	0.40mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,638 (+2%)	5mo	$133,500	$82	69
905 S Monroe St	0.33mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,687 (+5%)	0mo	$146,500	$87	67
407 S Jackson St	0.48mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,650 (+2%)	4mo	$45,000	$27	61
912 S Van Buren St	0.41mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,638 (+2%)	13mo	$175,000	$107	60
607 Broadway	0.15mi	5/1.0	1,803 (+12%)	12mo	$148,470	$82	59
1507 S Van Buren St	0.64mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (-3%)	6mo	$141,000	$90	56
722 S Van Buren St	0.42mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,830 (+14%)	0mo	$169,900	$93	52
1711 S VanBuren St	0.75mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,567 (-3%)	8mo	$161,500	$103	49
1414 Garfield Ave	0.36mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-13%)	9mo	$132,000	$94	49
900 Jennison St	0.66mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,681 (+4%)	10mo	$168,000	$100	48
709 S Vanburen St	0.45mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,848 (+15%)	7mo	$106,000	$57	40
1707 S Monroe St	0.69mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,390 (-14%)	2mo	$151,000	$109	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $41,341
• Equity at exit: $8,052

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.65×
• Total profit: $100,616
• Equity at exit: $4,669

Cash invested: $15,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48708

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,506 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$283
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,182/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $786

Break-even live

Break-even rent $512

Max offer price $54,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,500
• Closing costs: $1,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $54,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $54,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $59,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $59,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 639-char remark
14. 2026-06-03
    listed $59,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,182 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,182 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,076
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,025
• − Property taxes: −$1,182
• − Insurance: −$270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,446
• − Management: −$1,446
• − Depreciation: −$1,571
• Taxable income: $9,136
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,193
• After-tax cash flow: $7,237/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,635
• Household income: $50,518
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 183.5774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+47.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $59,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-02 Listed $59,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $39,900 Public Records
• 2008-01-18 Sold (MLS) $39,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-07-30 Listed $39,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,182 · -12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.