10512 Earl Dr · Castle Point, MO 63136

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 770 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1955 6,499 sqft lot $97/sqft · 12% above area Est $67k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.0/15.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Key facts

• 6,499 sq ft lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 16 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Single-phase electric; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Back yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $467 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#313 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lewis And Clark Elem. (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 145 students, 98% FRL); Riverview Gardens Sr. High (math 2% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 521 statewide, top 97%, 1,331 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $75k implies a 257% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.67%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $66,838
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: 12.21%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10429 Earl Dr	0.11mi	2/1.0	770 (0%)	1mo	$35,000	$45	94
10504 Duke Dr	0.06mi	2/1.0	770 (0%)	9mo	$115,000	$149	90
10417 Duke Dr	0.14mi	2/1.0	770 (0%)	7mo	$35,000	$45	88
10348 Earl Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0 (+1)	770 (0%)	4mo	$35,000	$45	82
10465 Lord Dr	0.09mi	3/1.5 (+1)	770 (0%)	11mo	$109,900	$143	80
10365 Lord Dr	0.21mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+12%)	4mo	$87,000	$101	62
10140 Earl Dr	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	737 (-4%)	10mo	$99,900	$136	56
10019 Lord Dr	0.71mi	2/1.0	795 (+3%)	7mo	$37,999	$48	56
10236 Monarch Dr	0.42mi	3/1.5 (+1)	850 (+10%)	1mo	$35,000	$41	55
10117 Royal Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+12%)	1mo	$35,000	$41	48
10117 Duke Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+12%)	5mo	$119,900	$139	45
10040 Lord Dr	0.66mi	2/1.0	672 (-13%)	5mo	$10,000	$15	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $44,401
• Equity at exit: $37,109

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.55×
• Total profit: $116,500
• Equity at exit: $59,975

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,215 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $822/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $467

Break-even live

Break-even rent $624

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $509	-5% $488	+0% $467	+5% $445	+10% $424
Rent	-10% $371	-5% $419	+0% $467	+5% $515	+10% $563
Rate	-1.0pp $504	-0.5pp $486	base $467	+0.5pp $447	+1.0pp $428

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13061 Lord Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,040	$1.16	23d	1	0.13mi
10512 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,195	$1.35	16d	1	0.14mi
10404 Earl Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	5d	1	0.16mi
10421 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,275	$1.25	25d	1	0.18mi
10504 Baron Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	9d	1	0.20mi
10348 Earl Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	770	$1,325	$1.72	0d	1	0.20mi
10365 Lord Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,075	$1.24	3d	1	0.22mi
10557 Castle Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,300	$1.27	16d	1	0.22mi
10409 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,100	$1.21	23d	1	0.22mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	25d	1	0.35mi
10139 Royal Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1016	$900	$0.89	45d	1	0.53mi
10113 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	770	$1,325	$1.72	45d	1	0.57mi
10112 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	9d	1	0.58mi
10113 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	882	$775	$0.88	45d	1	0.59mi
1520 Attica Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1062	$1,200	$1.13	25d	1	0.66mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	25d	1	0.74mi
2326 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,050	$0.99	25d	1	0.78mi
1253 Avant Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	795	$1,295	$1.63	16d	1	0.86mi
1253 Avant Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	795	$1,295	$1.63	19d	1	0.86mi
2321 Noll Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	975	$1,320	$1.35	25d	1	0.90mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	25d	1	0.90mi
1230 Roxton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	23d	1	0.92mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	0d	1	1.02mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	45d	1	1.02mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	25d	1	1.02mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	25d	1	1.03mi
1223 Rapid Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,095	$1.09	0d	1	1.04mi
1208 Rapid Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	992	$1,375	$1.39	6d	1	1.05mi
1115 Bakewell Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	916	$1,300	$1.42	45d	1	1.08mi
1255 Bosworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1071	$1,575	$1.47	12d	1	1.09mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	9d	1	1.12mi
2155 Hecht Ave St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	673	$1,162	$1.73	0d	23	1.12mi
10367 Coburg Lands Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,270	$1.39	45d	1	1.13mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	4d	1	1.13mi
10508 Druid Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,475	$1.31	18d	1	1.13mi
10200 Tappan Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,450	$1.59	18d	1	1.14mi
10200 Tappan Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,375	$1.51	0d	1	1.14mi
9744 Lanier Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,345	$1.33	45d	1	1.14mi
1009 Bliss Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	45d	1	1.22mi
9723 Portage Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,450	$1.43	9d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $75,000 Active 665-char remark
2. 2026-05-13
   historical $75,000 665-char remark
3. 2011-12-21
   soldstatus $21,000
4. 2010-10-07
   soldstatus $21,000
5. 2004-04-13
   soldstatus $12,900
6. 2001-10-22
   soldstatus $51,795
7. 1998-02-03
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $822 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $822 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,579
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$822
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,166
• − Management: −$1,166
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $4,666
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,120
• After-tax cash flow: $4,481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Castle Point

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #14373

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Castle Point, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+44.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $75,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Coming Soon $75,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records
• 2010-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records
• 2004-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $12,900 Public Records
• 2001-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $51,795 Public Records
• 1998-02-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $822 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.