2916 E 15th Ave #2 · Tampa, FL 33605

$359,999

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,535 sqft · Townhouse public records · 72 Days on market

Built 2022 2,375 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. Under construction. LOCATED IN EAST TAMPA - Just 1 mile away from Historic Ybor City. Builder's first Farmhouse-style duplex. Each unit equipped with a 1 car garage, covered front porch, and 3 spacious bedrooms. Price reflects ONE of the two units. * This unit (#2) will be on the East side of the lot *

Key facts

• Near ybor city
• Near downtown tampa
• Near major highways

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN LAYOUT
• FENCED BACKYARD
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• NEAR DOWNTOWN TAMPA
• NEAR YBOR CITY
• NEAR MAJOR HIGHWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential townhouse; Zoning: RM-24; Lot dimensions approximately 25 x 95 (0.05 acres); Living area about 1,535 sq ft; total building area about 1,840 sq ft; Unfurnished; No CDD, not homestead; No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: No association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Cable available; Fiber optics; Water and sewer available and connected
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Two stories; East-facing
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of a multi-building complex (building number 2)
• Exterior features: Patio; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Vinyl fencing; Asphalt/paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Thermostat; Window treatments; Blinds; ENERGY STAR qualified windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry in a laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-689 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (33.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (34.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 190 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,372/mo this rent would consume 77% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1374% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$62k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($338k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $288k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,229 (34.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.41%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $146,615
• Equity at exit: $324,316

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.52×
• Total profit: $456,086
• Equity at exit: $699,399

Cash invested: $100,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33605

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,372 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax from tax record: −$459 /mo · $5,507/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-689

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,245

Max offer price $238,259

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-485	-5% $-587	+0% $-689	+5% $-791	+10% $-893
Rent	-10% $-877	-5% $-783	+0% $-689	+5% $-595	+10% $-502
Rate	-1.0pp $-508	-0.5pp $-598	base $-689	+0.5pp $-782	+1.0pp $-877

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,000
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3101 E 18th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,750	$1.67	4d	1	0.16mi
2504 E 12th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,500	$1.76	6d	1	0.30mi
3114 E 21st Ave Unit 1328494P Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1614	$4,781	$2.96	0d	1	0.34mi
2703 N 24th St Unit 1 Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1164	$2,295	$1.97	15d	1	0.37mi
2703 N 24th St Unit 1 Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1164	$2,295	$1.97	0d	1	0.37mi
2312 E 10th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1520	$2,400	$1.58	19d	1	0.41mi
2214 E 18th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$2,295	$1.93	6d	1	0.45mi
3411 E 9th Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	1.0	1116	$1,700	$1.52	25d	1	0.46mi
2312 E 8th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1420	$2,500	$1.76	13d	1	0.48mi
2104 E Columbus Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,995	$1.62	25d	1	0.51mi
2104 E Columbus Dr Unit 301 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1083	$2,050	$1.89	25d	1	0.51mi
2002 E 18th Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1084	$2,400	$2.21	6d	1	0.58mi
2904 Banza St Tampa, FL	4.0	3.0	2031	$3,200	$1.58	25d	1	0.59mi
2203 E 23rd Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	2.5	1880	$2,900	$1.54	19d	1	0.60mi
2108 E 22nd Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1308	$2,100	$1.61	6d	1	0.62mi
2108 E 22nd Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1308	$2,100	$1.61	4d	1	0.62mi
3107 Chipco St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1268	$1,799	$1.42	25d	1	0.66mi
3511 Bishop Eddie Newkirk Way Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	12d	1	0.66mi
3511 Bishop Eddie Newkirk Way Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	25d	1	0.66mi
2708 N 19th St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,200	$1.31	18d	1	0.68mi
3517 Bishop Eddie Newkirk Way Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,500	$2.08	25d	1	0.68mi
1808 E Columbus Dr #5 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1620	$1,900	$1.17	4d	1	0.72mi
2409 E 2nd Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	882	$2,787	$3.16	0d	20	0.72mi
1807 E 20th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1131	$2,900	$2.56	25d	1	0.75mi
2002 E 5th Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,795	$1.69	6d	1	0.76mi
2006 E 4th Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,000	$1.75	15d	1	0.77mi
2205 Chipco St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	25d	1	0.77mi
2610 E Lake Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1698	$2,250	$1.33	4d	1	0.85mi
2810 N 16th St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1066	$2,550	$2.39	13d	1	0.93mi
3716 N 31st St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,895	$1.58	6d	1	0.93mi
2607 Lindell Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,395	$1.65	4d	1	0.96mi
1520 E 21st Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1671	$2,350	$1.41	18d	1	0.98mi
3021 Sanchez St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,195	$1.69	25d	1	1.01mi
3210 N 16th St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1380	$1,875	$1.36	4d	1	1.02mi
3210 N 16th St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1380	$1,875	$1.36	0d	1	1.02mi
3210 N 16th St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1380	$1,995	$1.45	23d	1	1.02mi
2610 Durham St Apt B Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1088	$1,250	$1.15	16d	1	1.05mi
2816 Corrine St Unit 2 Tampa, FL	4.0	2.5	2098	$4,200	$2.00	0d	1	1.18mi
3002 E 38th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$2,600	$1.84	25d	1	1.23mi
4303 N 30th St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$3,200	$2.54	3d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   price $359,999
3. 2026-03-01
   listed $364,999 Active
4. 2026-02-09
   historical $2,200
5. 2026-01-27
   price $2,200
6. 2025-12-05
   listed $2,500
7. 2022-09-04
   soldstatus $288,465 Closed 323-char remark

   Show marketing remark (323 chars)

   Under Construction. Under construction. LOCATED IN EAST TAMPA - Just 1 mile away from Historic Ybor City. Builder's first Farmhouse-style duplex. Each unit equipped with a 1 car garage, covered front porch, and 3 spacious bedrooms. Price reflects ONE of the two units. * This unit (#2) will be on the East side of the lot *

8. 2021-10-01
   status Pending 323-char remark

   Show marketing remark (323 chars)

   Under Construction. Under construction. LOCATED IN EAST TAMPA - Just 1 mile away from Historic Ybor City. Builder's first Farmhouse-style duplex. Each unit equipped with a 1 car garage, covered front porch, and 3 spacious bedrooms. Price reflects ONE of the two units. * This unit (#2) will be on the East side of the lot *

9. 2021-09-29
   price $290,020 323-char remark

   Show marketing remark (323 chars)

   Under Construction. Under construction. LOCATED IN EAST TAMPA - Just 1 mile away from Historic Ybor City. Builder's first Farmhouse-style duplex. Each unit equipped with a 1 car garage, covered front porch, and 3 spacious bedrooms. Price reflects ONE of the two units. * This unit (#2) will be on the East side of the lot *

10. 2021-08-18
    listed $284,990 Active 323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    Under Construction. Under construction. LOCATED IN EAST TAMPA - Just 1 mile away from Historic Ybor City. Builder's first Farmhouse-style duplex. Each unit equipped with a 1 car garage, covered front porch, and 3 spacious bedrooms. Price reflects ONE of the two units. * This unit (#2) will be on the East side of the lot *

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,507 · $459/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,507 · $459/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,166
• − Property taxes: −$5,507
• − Insurance: −$2,597
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,277
• − Management: −$2,277
• − Depreciation: −$10,473
• Taxable loss: −$14,830
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,559
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tampa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2135

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tampa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 523,346
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,030
• Household income: $36,975
• Rent vs Own: 59.8% rent · 40.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1374.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 18% White 17% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.43%
• Current HPI: 494.1871
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.58%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+26.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $359,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-01 Listed $364,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Rental Removed $2,200 STELLARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $2,200 STELLARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listed for Rent $2,500 STELLARMLS
• 2022-09-04 Sold (MLS) $288,465 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-29 Price Changed $290,020 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-18 Listed $284,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+118.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,507 · +11.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.