7768 Gardner Dr #202 · Pelican Marsh, FL 34109

$377,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Condo public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1995 $829/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

JUST REDUCED!!!! A true must see to appreciate. Step into this inviting home featuring a bright living room, a separate dining room for entertaining, and a casual eat-in kitchen that’s both functional and charming. The spacious master ensuite provides a private retreat, while two additional bedrooms offer comfort for family or guests. Brand new luxury flooring throughout. Enjoy the outdoors on your large screened lanai with a partial lake view, the perfect spot for morning coffee or evening cocktails. A 1-car garage adds convenience and extra storage. This community offers resort-style amenities, sparkling pool, fitness center, clubhouse, and more, all just minutes from shopping, dini

Key facts

• Partial lake view
• Separate dining room
• Master ensuite

Tags

• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• CASUAL EAT-IN KITCHEN
• MASTER ENSUITE
• LARGE SCREENED LANAI
• PARTIAL LAKE VIEW
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Development: ORCHARDS; Unit number: 202; Complex has 334 units; 6 units in the building; 2 units per floor; 1 floor total; Restrictions: No commercial, no RV, no truck; Irrigation: Central
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly master HOA fee; Quarterly condo fee; Professional management; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool and spa, exercise room, tennis, pickleball, basketball, play area, sidewalks, streetlights, and underground utilities; Maintenance covers internet/WiFi, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, manager, exterior pest control, recreation facilities, sewer, street lights, trash removal, and water; Total annual recurring fees reported; One-time fees reported

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 garage space); Paved driveway; Guest parking
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property; Low-rise (1–3) carriage/coach building; Rear exposure faces south; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Built in 1995; Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Private road; Landscaped area view; Zero lot line; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator/Freezer
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; High-speed internet available; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Great room floor plan; Dining area in living room; Screened lanai/porch; Laundry in residence; Unfurnished; Four ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $378k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $980 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $378k).
• Recommended offer: $344k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pelican Marsh Elementary School (math 87% / reading 83%, grade A+, #35 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 709 students, 29% FRL); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 55% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 75% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 424 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.3% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $106k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($344k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $378k implies a 214% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $343,889 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.11%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.29% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $46,140
• Equity at exit: $115,336

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $134,986
• Equity at exit: $143,195

Cash invested: $105,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34109

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,330 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,982
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,154/yr
• Insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$829
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,119
• Net cashflow: $980

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,090

Max offer price $377,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,194	-5% $1,087	+0% $980	+5% $873	+10% $766
Rent	-10% $559	-5% $769	+0% $980	+5% $1,190	+10% $1,401
Rate	-1.0pp $1,170	-0.5pp $1,076	base $980	+0.5pp $882	+1.0pp $782

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,475
• Closing costs: $11,337
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7762 Gardner Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1607	$6,000	$3.73	24d	1	0.04mi
7720 Gardner Dr #201 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1960	$5,500	$2.81	24d	1	0.13mi
2585 Old Groves Rd Unit L203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1448	$5,500	$3.80	14d	1	0.15mi
7822 Gardner Dr Unit 6-101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1607	$2,500	$1.56	24d	1	0.17mi
7828 Gardner Dr Unit 5-202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1960	$5,750	$2.93	24d	1	0.19mi
7699 Groves Rd Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2259	$10,000	$4.43	24d	1	0.21mi
7518 Silver Trumpet Ln Unit Q102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,600	$2.00	14d	1	0.23mi
2516 Orchid Bay Dr #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1360	$4,750	$3.49	24d	1	0.25mi
2729 Branch Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,650	$2.03	24d	1	0.29mi
2476 Orchid Bay Dr Unit W201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1928	$2,600	$1.35	14d	1	0.33mi
2835 Mizzen Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1641	$2,900	$1.77	24d	1	0.36mi
2864 Mizzen Way Unit Y106 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$5,200	$3.85	14d	1	0.38mi
2730 Sailors Way Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1700	$9,000	$5.29	24d	1	0.41mi
2460 Old Groves Rd Unit E102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1226	$2,400	$1.96	14d	1	0.42mi
7710 Ahoy Ave Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,950	$1.87	24d	1	0.44mi
2885 Citrus Lake Dr Unit N103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1249	$5,250	$4.20	14d	1	0.44mi
3296 Twilight Ln #6202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2133	$6,500	$3.05	14d	1	0.49mi
3320 Bermuda Isle Cir Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1134	$3,270	$2.88	14d	45	0.49mi
2662 Bolero Dr Unit 10 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1768	$15,000	$8.48	24d	1	0.54mi
3048 Horizon Ln #1104 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$5,150	$2.83	24d	1	0.54mi
2608 Sailors Way #122 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1387	$5,500	$3.97	24d	1	0.54mi
3062 Driftwood Way #4301 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1573	$6,500	$4.13	24d	1	0.55mi
2630 Bolero Dr Unit 2-3 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2256	$24,000	$10.64	24d	1	0.55mi
2630 Bolero Dr Unit 2-2 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2256	$25,000	$11.08	24d	1	0.55mi
2880 Citrus Lake Dr Unit Q201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,495	$1.57	14d	1	0.56mi
2860 Citrus Lake Dr Unit R-202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,000	$3.14	14d	1	0.56mi
2860 Citrus Lake Dr Unit R202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,000	$3.14	24d	1	0.56mi
2625 Estrella Dr Unit 15-1 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1768	$18,000	$10.18	24d	1	0.56mi
2654 Bolero Dr Unit 8-1 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1768	$20,000	$11.31	24d	1	0.57mi
3051 Horizon Ln #1803 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1482	$5,100	$3.44	24d	1	0.57mi
2662 Bolero Dr #1002 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2256	$13,000	$5.76	14d	1	0.59mi
3015 Horizon Ln #2702 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,790	$1.28	24d	1	0.60mi
2659 Bolero Dr #3 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2341	$24,000	$10.25	24d	1	0.60mi
3057 Driftwood Way #4004 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$6,400	$3.52	24d	1	0.60mi
2731 Citrus Lake Dr #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1260	$2,500	$1.98	14d	1	0.60mi
2738 Tiburon Blvd E Unit B405 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1865	$12,000	$6.43	14d	1	0.61mi
3009 Driftwood Way #2802 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$2,000	$1.43	24d	1	0.61mi
2711 Citrus Lake Dr Unit F302 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1272	$4,500	$3.54	14d	1	0.61mi
2711 Citrus Lake Dr Unit F305 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$5,500	$3.72	14d	1	0.61mi
2609 Estrella Ct #1902 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2340	$14,000	$5.98	14d	1	0.62mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $829 · $9,948/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $377,900 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $377,900 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $377,900 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $377,900 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $377,900 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $377,900 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $377,900 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $377,900 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $377,900 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $377,900 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $377,900 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $377,900 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $377,900 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $377,900 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    price $377,900
16. 2026-03-04
    listed $399,700 Active
17. 2025-11-20
    historical
18. 2025-09-03
    listed $382,700 Active
19. 2025-09-02
    historical
20. 2025-05-03
    price $375,000
21. 2025-03-26
    price $395,000
22. 2025-02-27
    listed $434,500 Active
23. 1995-09-01
    soldstatus $120,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,154 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,154 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,960
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,168
• − Property taxes: −$3,154
• − Insurance: −$1,890
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,117
• − Management: −$5,117
• − HOA: −$9,948
• − Depreciation: −$10,993
• Taxable income: $6,573
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,577
• After-tax cash flow: $10,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pelican Marsh

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,273
• Household income: $92,259
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1712.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.29%
• Current HPI: 279.357
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+213.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $377,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $399,700 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-11-20 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-09-03 Listed $382,700 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-09-02 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-05-03 Price Changed $375,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-03-26 Price Changed $395,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-02-27 Listed $434,500 NAPLESMLS
• 1995-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $120,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,154 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.