3837 Fawn Rd · Norman, MI 49689

$99,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 625 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 1960 1.11 ac lot Est $78k · 28% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for an affordable Northern Michigan base camp? This cozy 1-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on over an acre and offers plenty of room to spread out. The open kitchen and living room layout with higher ceilings gives the home a surprisingly spacious feel. Outside you'll find multiple storage sheds, a privacy fence, and plenty of room for outdoor activities, equipment, or future improvements. Located on a county-maintained road for easy year-round access, this property would make an excellent starter home, hunting camp, vacation retreat, or investment opportunity.

Key facts

• Privacy fence
• 1.11 acre lot
• Built 1960

Tags

• MULTIPLE STORAGE SHEDS
• PRIVACY FENCE
• COUNTY MAINTAINED ROAD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water
• Home design: Single-family residential property; Built in 1960
• Construction: Constructed with other materials
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 1.11 acres; Unimproved road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen approximately 15 x 12; Dining room (formal); Dining area
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom approximately 10 x 11; Bedroom 2; Bedroom 3; Bedroom 4; Bedroom 5
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; Primary bathroom approximately 7 x 8; Additional bathroom (Bathroom 1); Additional bathroom (Bathroom 2)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Total of 3 rooms; Slab foundation (basement)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room approximately 7 x 8; Entry/utility area approximately 8 x 13

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($443/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $78k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $78k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kaleva Norman Dickson School District (rural): math 18% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #423 of 540 in MI (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 109 units permitted in Manistee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Manistee County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $99k implies a 371% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,145 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.60%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,500
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17161 Airport Rd	0.17mi	2/1.0 (+1)	690 (+10%)	23mo	$85,900	$124	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $56,216
• Equity at exit: $89,187

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.90×
• Total profit: $163,595
• Equity at exit: $192,335

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49689

• Home prices YoY: 12.8%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $781 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $240/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$164
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $735

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   remarks 569-char remark
8. 2026-06-09
   listed $99,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $240 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $883 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$642/yr (+$54/mo · 267.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$240
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$750
• − Management: −$750
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$1,284
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$308
• After-tax cash flow: $751/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kaleva Norman Dickson School District
• NCES district ID: 2620010
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,530
• Composite: 21.54/100
• National rank: #8314
• State rank: #423 of 540 in MI

Livability — Norman

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,791

Population outlook (Manistee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,785 people
• By 2030: 23,227 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 21,795 · -8.4%
• By 2050: 20,653 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 18,833 · -20.8%
• By 2100: 15,491 · -34.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Black 1% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Manistee

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.2% · R 57.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.2pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+15.4 2012: D+5.9 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.65%
• Current HPI: 279.8512
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+209.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $99,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-08 Listed $99,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-08 Listed $99,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2021-10-15 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-10-15 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2021-10-06 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2020-10-15 Listed $52,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-10-15 Listed $52,000 REALCOMP
• 2020-05-03 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-05-03 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2019-05-03 Listed $47,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-05-03 Listed $47,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-05-03 Listed $47,900 REALCOMP
• 2015-04-03 Sold (MLS) $21,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2015-04-03 Sold (MLS) $21,000 REALCOMP
• 2015-03-09 Listed $22,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2015-03-09 Listed $22,900 REALCOMP
• 2009-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $240 · -76.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.