1565 W Lockport Ln · Dunnellon, FL 34434

$83,112

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1959 Fair condition 5,000 sqft lot $96/sqft · 48% below area Est $161k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks

If you are a nature enthusiast and enjoy boating, hiking and outdoor activities, look no further! This charming 2 Bd/ 1 Ba home with an abundance of light is your perfect retreat. After spending the day at Rainbow Sprngs State park or on the Withlacoochee River, you can return to your cozy home to relax and continue to enjoy nature in your own yard surrounded by beauitul trees. You can't beat Dunnellon for endless opportunities to enjoy nature. Never fear if Golf is your passion, it has premier golf courses as well. The home needs some TLC, but you won't believe the price! Hurry, this one will go fast. REPORTED: ". .an unsolved murder that occurred in this home in 2000.. ".

Key facts

• Premier golf courses
• Withlacoochee river
• 5,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• RAINBOW SPRINGS STATE PARK
• WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER
• PREMIER GOLF COURSES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $83k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $658 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 3.6% in Dunnellon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#443 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Ridge Elementary School (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 723 students, 64% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Citrus High School (math 34% / reading 51%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,503 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1614 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $575 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,618 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.92%
• DSCR: 2.51
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,915
• List price: $83,112
• Delta: -48.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1758 W J Williams Ln	0.30mi	2/1.0	912 (+6%)	14mo	$155,000	$170	65
12315 N Margaret Ter	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,064 (+23%)	1mo	$195,750	$184	53
11851 Illinois St	0.81mi	2/1.0	945 (+9%)	7mo	$88,000	$93	44
1590 W Ravine Ln	0.33mi	2/1.0	1,056 (+22%)	28mo	$136,000	$129	40
20432 W Mckinney Ave	0.93mi	3/1.5 (+1)	912 (+6%)	16mo	$105,500	$116	35
20717 Walnut St	0.77mi	2/2.0	825 (-4%)	22mo	$179,000	$217	35
20800 River Dr Unit A35	0.62mi	2/1.0	730 (-16%)	19mo	$249,500	$342	30
20820 River Dr Unit B32	0.65mi	2/1.5	730 (-16%)	16mo	$254,900	$349	30
19394 Saint Lawrence Dr	1.33mi	2/1.0	945 (+9%)	25mo	$150,150	$159	29
20800 River Dr Unit A34	0.62mi	2/1.5	988 (+14%)	24mo	$257,500	$261	26
11540 Osage Rd	1.41mi	2/2.0	1,076 (+24%)	16mo	$190,000	$177	23
19382 Saint Lawrence Dr	1.34mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+25%)	20mo	$230,000	$213	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $28,468
• Equity at exit: $12,392

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.39×
• Total profit: $78,915
• Equity at exit: $7,186

Cash invested: $23,271 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $173,750 ($205/sqft)
• Median days on market: 198 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -9.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34434

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 1614
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,603 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$436
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,660/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $658

Break-even live

Break-even rent $771

Max offer price $83,112

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $705	-5% $681	+0% $658	+5% $634	+10% $611
Rent	-10% $531	-5% $594	+0% $658	+5% $721	+10% $784
Rate	-1.0pp $700	-0.5pp $679	base $658	+0.5pp $636	+1.0pp $614

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,778
• Closing costs: $2,493
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11987 Maple St Unit 2 Dunnellon, FL	2.0	1.0	772	$2,150	$2.78	6d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-07-01
   days on market $83,112 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-30
   pricedays on market $83,112 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-29
   days on market $93,112 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-28
   days on market $93,112 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-28
   days on market $93,112 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-27
   days on market $93,112 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-26
   statusdays on market $93,112 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
9. 2026-04-13
   status Active
10. 2026-04-02
    status Pending
11. 2026-03-16
    listed $93,112 Active
12. 2024-07-31
    status Pending
13. 2024-04-27
    listed $169,000 Active
14. 2020-04-13
    soldstatus $92,500
15. 2012-02-13
    historical
16. 2011-08-13
    listed $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,660 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,660 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,239
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,656
• − Property taxes: −$1,660
• − Insurance: −$416
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,539
• − Management: −$1,539
• − Depreciation: −$2,418
• Taxable income: $7,011
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,683
• After-tax cash flow: $6,210/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $21,600–$38,880 screening

This home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. The exterior siding and landscaping need significant attention, while interior updates such as painting and flooring can also boost its appeal.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good Flooring tile Counters granite Appliances black HVAC central · new lt5

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Exterior siding — There is some discoloration and wear visible on the exterior siding.
• Major Landscaping — The landscaping is sparse and overgrown, which negatively impacts the curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Modern countertops can add value and improve the home's functionality. ↑
• Resale Upgrade flooring — Upgrading the flooring can make the home more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Upgrade bathroom fixtures — Modern bathroom fixtures can significantly improve the home's value and appeal. ↑
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — A well-maintained yard can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Central Ridge Elementary School F FL #1,383/2,144 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Citrus Springs Middle School B- FL #183/571 Nat'l #2,564/14,009 High Citrus High School F FL #264/667 Nat'l #7,501/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Dunnellon

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #443
• US rank: #7922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Citrus County · 138,622 people
• City population: 20,859
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,074
• Household income: $68,939
• Rent vs Own: 12.4% rent · 87.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.70%
• Current HPI: 328.2164
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+365.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Listed $93,112 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-31 Pending — DGLMLS
• 2024-04-27 Listed $169,000 DGLMLS
• 2020-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $92,500 Public Records
• 2012-02-13 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-13 Listed $20,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,660 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.