7733 Cypress St · Keystone Heights, FL 32656

$64,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1994 0.33 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Unlock the potential of this affordable fixer-upper in the heart of Keystone Heights — a community known for its lakes, parks, small-town charm, and highly regarded local schools. Whether you're an investor, a DIY-lover, or someone dreaming of a fresh start, this property offers multiple opportunities. Sitting on a cleared, easy-to-maintain lot with existing utilities in place, the home comes with materials to help you jump-start the renovation: new vinyl flooring, cabinets, toilets, vanities, lighting, and a kitchen sink. Finish the space your way, or take advantage of the setup and replace the existing home with a brand-new build — the flexibility is yours. Keystone Heights is

Key facts

• New toilets
• Existing utilities
• New cabinets

Tags

• CLEARED EASY-TO-MAINTAIN LOT
• EXISTING UTILITIES
• NEW VINYL FLOORING
• NEW CABINETS
• NEW TOILETS
• NEW VANITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Total acreage approximately 1/4 to less than 1/2 acre; Living area reported as 924 square feet; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: No association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One story; Faces southeast; Entry level: One
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $649 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 3.6% in Keystone Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#109 in FL, #1,684 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Keystone Heights Elementary (math 77% / reading 70%, grade A, #260 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 803 students, 100% FRL); Keystone Heights Junior/Senior High (math 48% / reading 47%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,205 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 327 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $65k implies a 147% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,953 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.87%
• DSCR: 2.91
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $30,831
• Equity at exit: $9,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $80,092
• Equity at exit: $5,611

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32656

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $599/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $649

Break-even live

Break-even rent $528

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $686	-5% $668	+0% $649	+5% $631	+10% $612
Rent	-10% $543	-5% $596	+0% $649	+5% $703	+10% $756
Rate	-1.0pp $682	-0.5pp $666	base $649	+0.5pp $632	+1.0pp $615

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6312 Magnolia St Keystone Heights, FL	2.0	1.0	1064	$1,350	$1.27	12d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $64,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $69,900 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-05-09
    status Pending
12. 2026-04-22
    listed $69,900 Active
13. 1996-04-26
    soldstatus $26,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $599 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $599 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$599
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
• − Management: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $7,161
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,719
• After-tax cash flow: $6,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Keystone Heights

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #1684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,630

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.65%
• Current HPI: 344.7744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+165.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $26,300 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $599 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.