3804 Belmont Dr · Waco, TX 76711

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,424 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1954 8,838 sqft lot $116/sqft · 6% below area Est $176k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home on Large Corner Lot in Waco. Great opportunity for investors! This home has 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home sits on a spacious corner lot in Waco. The property includes a flex room that can easily be converted into a third bedroom, office, or additional living space. Newer roof, this home is move-in ready! The larger lot provides room for expansion, outdoor living, or future improvements. Call your agent today.

Key facts

• Large corner lot
• Flex room
• Room for expansion

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• FLEX ROOM
• ROOM FOR EXPANSION
• OUTDOOR LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($62/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, commute F.
• Waco ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #773 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 43 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.13%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,907
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -6.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2213 Autumn Woods Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,308 (-8%)	1mo	$249,900	$191	76
3501 Bagby Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,351 (-5%)	1mo	$204,000	$151	76
2308 Richter Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,306 (-8%)	2mo	$184,900	$142	75
3820 James Ave	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,339 (-6%)	4mo	$200,000	$149	67
1313 Dartmouth St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+0%)	6mo	$199,000	$139	65
2711 Old Robinson Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,356 (-5%)	2mo	$179,000	$132	62
1512 Holly Vista St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,487 (+4%)	0mo	$269,999	$182	61
1709 Nelva St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,513 (+6%)	6mo	$225,000	$149	60
1512 Lexington	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+2%)	8mo	$248,500	$171	56
3917 Charlton Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-14%)	5mo	$237,000	$193	50
1413 Shelburne St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-15%)	4mo	$199,900	$164	47
2708 Alta Vista Cir	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-12%)	0mo	$199,900	$160	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.57% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $24,685
• Equity at exit: $79,503

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $80,688
• Equity at exit: $126,824

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76711

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,575 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$305 /mo · $3,663/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,569

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3743 Vista Cove Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1509	$1,850	$1.23	21d	1	0.38mi
4009 James Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,495	$1.42	21d	1	0.48mi
3200 Belmont Dr Unit 3228 Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	995	$1,500	$1.51	13d	1	0.49mi
3447 Pewitt Dr Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	907	$1,350	$1.49	13d	1	0.58mi
3430 Pewitt Dr Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	916	$1,150	$1.26	44d	1	0.63mi
3411 Pewitt Dr #3413 Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	21d	1	0.70mi
3001 S New Rd Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,645	$1.86	13d	15	0.74mi
3300 Wynmore Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1678	$1,850	$1.10	44d	1	0.82mi
3300 Wynmore Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1678	$1,850	$1.10	21d	1	0.82mi
2201 Creekview Dr Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$2,094	$2.12	13d	20	0.87mi
3812 Hiland Dr Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1124	$995	$0.89	13d	1	0.92mi
700 S Valley Mills Dr Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	850	$995	$1.17	13d	2	1.02mi
4000 Acree St Waco, TX	3.0	1.5	984	$1,295	$1.32	21d	1	1.02mi
4900 Bagby Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1026	$1,650	$1.61	21d	1	1.07mi
5210 Bagby Ave Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1014	$1,695	$1.67	13d	12	1.17mi
2500 Marketplace Dr Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	921	$1,560	$1.69	13d	10	1.18mi
2601 Flint Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,720	$1.27	44d	1	1.24mi
828 Horseshoe Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1219	$1,750	$1.44	21d	1	1.43mi
1800 Primrose Dr Waco, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	942	$1,133	$1.20	13d	33	1.44mi
2021 Gurley Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,500	$1.14	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $165,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-04-16
   price $165,000 412-char remark

   Show marketing remark (412 chars)

   Home on Large Corner Lot in Waco. Great opportunity for investors! This home has 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home sits on a spacious corner lot in Waco. The property includes a flex room that can easily be converted into a third bedroom, office, or additional living space. Newer roof, this home is move-in ready! The larger lot provides room for expansion, outdoor living, or future improvements. Call your agent today.

4. 2026-02-20
   price $155,000 412-char remark

   Show marketing remark (412 chars)

   Home on Large Corner Lot in Waco. Great opportunity for investors! This home has 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home sits on a spacious corner lot in Waco. The property includes a flex room that can easily be converted into a third bedroom, office, or additional living space. Newer roof, this home is move-in ready! The larger lot provides room for expansion, outdoor living, or future improvements. Call your agent today.

5. 2026-01-23
   listed $165,000 Active 412-char remark

   Show marketing remark (412 chars)

   Home on Large Corner Lot in Waco. Great opportunity for investors! This home has 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home sits on a spacious corner lot in Waco. The property includes a flex room that can easily be converted into a third bedroom, office, or additional living space. Newer roof, this home is move-in ready! The larger lot provides room for expansion, outdoor living, or future improvements. Call your agent today.

6. 2025-12-10
   status Active
7. 2025-10-19
   price $180,000
8. 2025-09-25
   price $115,000
9. 2025-09-23
   price $119,999
10. 2025-09-17
    listed $124,999 Active
11. 2005-01-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,663 · $305/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,663 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,903
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$3,663
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,512
• − Management: −$1,512
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,652
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$636
• After-tax cash flow: $699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,208
• Composite: 17.57/100
• National rank: #9043
• State rank: #773 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,676
• Household income: $53,185
• Rent vs Own: 48.1% rent · 51.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 424.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 43% White 23% Black 12% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 56%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.57%
• Current HPI: 261.7166
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+32.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $165,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $155,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $165,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-12-10 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-10-19 Price Changed $180,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $115,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $119,999 NTREIS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $124,999 NTREIS
• 2005-01-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,663 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.