4736 Walnut Cir S · Kathleen, FL 33810

$250,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2000 1.05 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for space, freedom, and a property you can truly make your own? This 5-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home sits on just over 1 acre in North Lakeland with no HOA and plenty of room to spread out. The home offers a functional layout, a new roof installed in 2025, an A/C system less than 10 years old, and a water filtration system. Outside, you'll find a large covered area with electrical already in place, providing endless possibilities for storage, hobbies, a workshop, or entertaining space. The property does need some TLC, making it a great opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch and build equity. Conveniently located with easy access to shopping, dining, and major

Key facts

• 1.05 acre lot
• Built 2000
• Listed 10 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Lot approximately 1.05 acres (150 x 305)
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway access
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as manufactured home (double wide)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; French doors; Chain link fencing; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closets; Inside utility room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $393 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (3.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (3.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#752 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 504 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $250k implies a 1567% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,855 (3.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.73%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-16,120
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $15,611
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33810

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 504
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,409 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,137/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,911

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $534	-5% $464	+0% $393	+5% $322	+10% $251
Rent	-10% $203	-5% $298	+0% $393	+5% $488	+10% $583
Rate	-1.0pp $519	-0.5pp $456	base $393	+0.5pp $328	+1.0pp $262

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-08
   listed $250,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,137 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,075 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$938/yr (+$78/mo · 82.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,903
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,137
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,312
• − Management: −$2,312
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $615
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$148
• After-tax cash flow: $4,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Kathleen

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #752
• US rank: #16450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kathleen, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 52,734
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,137
• Household income: $69,986
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1208.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 320.7366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1685.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 1994-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,137 · +12.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.